我的《信報》文章(2025年12月18日A17頁)刊登後的改良加長版
https://www.hkej.com/dailynews/commentary/article/4276615/醫藥叩門中東+工程教育深耕非洲
《醫藥叩門中東
工程教育深耕非洲》
許劍昭
12月5日，
美國貿易代表格里爾(Jamieson
Greer)表示，
美中貿易必須更趨平衡:
「貿易領域應該集中在非敏感商品上」，
「貨物貿易額下降25%是朝着正確的方向前進」，
「這樣雙方就不會過度依賴彼此」。
[Note 1]
這顯然是脫鈎進程中一個更坦率、更量化的聲明。順沿此大趨勢的具體發展 (可參考拙文《中美脫鈎壓力測試後三個走向》(刊《信報》2025年6月) ，北京及香港須更具效益地拓展其他市場，而近期有三件事值得我們深思。
[Note 2]
11月26日，埃及斥資90億美元（約702億港元）建全球第六大高鐵網。唯儘管埃及是金磚集團成員，承包商卻是一家德國公司。
[Note 3]
11月21日，外交部宣佈，中國、坦桑尼亞、贊比亞三國政府同意攜手建設「坦贊鐵路繁榮帶」，系統推進鐵路沿線地區的全面發展。
[Note 4]
10月31日，俄羅斯能源部宣布，計劃在非洲國家布吉納法索
(Burkina Faso ，1960年結束法國殖民統治而獨立)，「啟動一項工程教育試點計劃……之後將擴展到其他國家。」
[Note 5]
在「非西方」(non-West)地區，中東是北京拓展能源以外類別的貿易中最艱難的國家群體，而對香港而言，難度更大(例如建立伊斯蘭金融已經談了20年，仍然乏善足陳)。
瑞典斯德哥爾摩國際和平研究所所長、權威的中東研究專家 Dan M. Smith 認為，從地理看，埃及雖然位於非洲，但依據策略考慮而言，卻是中東的一部分。「中東」此概念源於英國殖民時代，指的是圍繞歐洲的南部和東南部地帶，因此從戰略角度來看，它指的是北非和亞洲近東地區。包括18個主權國 —
摩洛哥、阿爾及利亞、突尼西亞、利比亞、埃及、
以色列、黎巴嫩、敘利亞、約旦、沙地阿拉伯、伊拉克、伊朗、科威特、巴林、卡塔爾、阿聯酋、阿曼、也門，及巴勒斯坦人居住地。
[Note 6]
由於歷史（殖民統治）及地緣政治原因，歐美與中東國家數百年來一直保持非常密切的關係，既有官式外交及軍事來往，也有大量的非官方聯繫，如民間團體的互動、英語法語的推廣、透過所謂自由媒體的意識形態滲透等等(說白一點，就是緊抓/咬不放) 。
在2001年911事件後，中東富裕國家的新一代領導及民眾，積極追求新知識新技術，以實現伊斯蘭文明的復興。他們迅速提高教育及英語水平，成功建立太空總署及航太中心，不計價採購最先進的芯片用於建造巨型人工智能數據中心，海量投資於書展、運動、電影、音樂……以實現文化升級。
[Note 7]
而在升學求知、採購科技、貿易互通、金融投資各方各面，跟美國合作乃中東富國之首選，其次是西歐，再次是其他經合組織國家，中國則處於較後位置。原因之一是他們支付得起並更喜歡購買西方的產品和服務。
中東富國對北京和香港態度友善有禮，但要取得深度合作的突破並不容易。2024年末，沙地阿拉伯在最後一刻凍結加入金磚集團的計劃，揭示他們身不由己的處境。較貧窮的中東國家由於依賴富裕兄弟國及歐美的援助，與中國增加貿易採購的自由所受到的限制更大。
[Note 8]
審時度勢，相比電訊、金融，主要基於生化科學的醫藥業屬於政治敏感度較低的領域，也是香港基礎厚實、未來30年高飛的卓越產業。近五年來，中國大陸的醫療產業也取得了許多新的突破，例如由中國自主研發全球首款心臟血管生物可降解堵器進展成功，該產品能植入後有效封堵心臟缺損，約12-24個月內完全降解成水和二氧化碳，實現“介入無植入”，避免了永久性金屬封堵器可能帶來的並發症，促進心臟組織再生(今年10月23日在《美國醫學會雜誌》線上發表結果)。以醫藥叩門中東市場值得投入更多資源。
[Note 9]
非洲的情況則完全是另一回事。
自21世紀初以來，許多非洲國家政府更有自信，以適合自身國情的方式追求更獨立的發展，勇敢地擺脫西方的政治及軍事影響。例如自2022年起，馬里、布基纳法索、尼日爾、乍得、中非共和國、塞內加爾、象牙海岸已成功安排法國撤軍。
[Note 10]
今年
二月，英國政府表示將削減40%對非洲的援助，以增加國防開支。
四月，美國也知難而退，國務院預告會關閉至少10個位於非洲的大使館。12月5日，美國發佈的《國家安全戰略》更明確指出，其重點在於「美國在西半球的主導地位」;至於非洲，報告簡短表示，美國只會選擇性地與那些「擁有豐富自然資源和潛在經濟潛力」的國家接觸。
[Note 11]
相反，自1950年代以來，中國一直與多個非洲國家合作，成績斐然。包括世界銀行和標普在內的多份經濟報告顯示，大多數非洲國家在新冠疫情後的經濟成長保持穩定。預計2025年和2026年，平均增長3.8%。2024年通脹率中位數約4.5%。前景穩定。
[Note 12]
而普京政府近年也趨向積極。始自2019年10月首屆俄非峰會，莫斯科邀請非洲國家代表多次訪問俄羅斯。從2022年到2025年初，外長拉夫羅夫更主動訪問了21個非洲國家，與眾多政府簽署了大量合作協議，包括上述俄羅斯在布基纳法索啟動的工程教育試點計劃。此項目反映這些大興土木的國家需要更先進的工程知識。
[Note 13]
由於西方媒體的報導執意側重於不幸事件，而香港媒體又依賴這些視頻片段作翻譯，港人對非洲的印象普遍是落後、貧困、混亂、暴力、骯髒。但實際上，除了極少數發生內戰的區域外，大多數非洲國家都經歷了至少 20 年的穩定發展。
早前一組港青前往納米比亞進行為期四週的訪問，驚訝當地機場的效率、商場的舒適、咖啡的香味、城市的整潔遠超想像;另在鄉村擔任義務教師時，讚嘆小學生學習英語和中文的濃厚興趣。
本文認為，為特區開拓新市場的其中一條出路是，充分利用以英語為基礎的香港高等教育體系，吸引大量非洲青年前來學習工程及其他專業科目(部分人可以獲得獎學金)。
這些資格達標、訓練有素、理解中華文化的年輕人，將來可以在自己的國家，成為往非洲發展的香港工程科技企業的員工或合夥人，在在設計、建造、售後服務等方面協助我們植根後，再拓展其他銷售業務。
非洲青年來港留學並不罕見，較著名的有津巴布韋總統的女兒2011年畢業於香港城市大學。當地發展未來一片光明，值得長期投入深耕。
[Note 14]
Notes
[Note 1]
20251205 《信報》
hkej.com/instantnews/international/article/4266988/格里爾%3A美國對華貿易規模可能需要縮小
美國貿易代表格里爾(Jamieson Greer)表示，美國與中國的貿易應更趨平衡，規模可能需要縮小。格里爾出席一個政策會議時解釋，這樣雙方就不會過度依賴彼此，而且貿易領域應該集中在非敏感商品上。他認為，與中國的貨物貿易額下降25%是朝着正確的方向前進。
[Note 2]
2025年6月2日 《信報》A17頁
《中美脫鈎壓力測試後三個走向》
https//www1.hkej.com/dailynews/commentary/article/4098598/中美脫鈎壓力測試後三個走向
[Note 3]
20251114 CNN
“Egypt’s 155 mph
high-speed trains unveiled”
https://edition.cnn.com/travel/egypt-high-speed-rail-siemens-velaro-desiro-trains-spc
Travelers
and critical cargo in Egypt could soon be moving faster thanks to high-speed
trains recently unveiled by Siemens Mobility.
20251126 《信報》
hkej.com/dailynews/international/article/4256367/埃及斥702億+建全球第六大高鐵網
[Note 4]
20251121
Global Times
“China, Tanzania, Zambia agree to jointly build
TAZARA Railway prosperity belt: Chinese FM”
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202511/1348788.shtml
[Note 5]
20251031 RT
“Russia to launch
engineering program in African state”
https://www.rt.com/africa/627186-russia-launch-engineering-education-program/
Russia plans to launch a
pilot engineering education program in Burkina Faso by late 2025, Deputy Energy
Minister Roman Marshavin announced on Thursday.
Speaking at the
Russia-Africa Raw Materials Dialogue in St. Petersburg, he noted that the
initiative is intended to build local technical capacity and support long-term
energy sovereignty in the Sahel region.
“Energy justice implies
not only the presence of infrastructure but also the training of highly
qualified personnel capable of independently using and improving modern
technologies,” Marshavin stated.
The project, which will begin
in Burkina Faso and, he believes, later expand to other Sahel nations, aims to develop local expertise in
the nuclear, oil and gas, and mining industries.
The minister added that
Russian companies possess the technological capabilities needed to meet
Africa’s growing industrial and energy demands and said there was “strong
interest” among African partners.
Wiki, Burkina Faso
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burkina_Faso
[Note 6]
Wiki, Dan Mansel Smith,
OBE (1951 - )
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dan_Smith_(British_author)
Dan Smith (2006), “The
State of the Middle East: An Atlas of Conflect and Resolution”, University of
California Press.
https://www.amazon.com/State-Middle-East-Conflict-Resolution/dp/0520248686
[Note 7]
Wiki, UAE Space Agency
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Arab_Emirates_Space_Agency
20231103 Stimson
“The Middle East enters
the Space Race”
https://www.stimson.org/2023/the-middle-east-enters-the-space-race/
20251119 CNBC
“Elon Musk’s xAI will be
first customer for Nvidia-backed data center in Saudi Arabia”
The announcement builds
on a partnership from May, when Nvidia said it would provide Saudi Arabia’s
Humain with chips that use 500 megawatts of power. On Wednesday, Humain said
the project would include about 600,000
Nvidia graphics processing units.
Humain was launched earlier this year and is owned by the Saudi Public Investment Fund. The plan to build the data center was initially announced when Huang visited Saudi Arabia alongside President Donald Trump.
20251113
Cultural investment:
A mine of promising opportunities in Saudi Arabia
https://www.arabnews.com/node/2622478
20251211 Arab News
“Jeddah Book Fair
2025 opens with expanded cultural program”
https://www.arabnews.com/node/2625895/saudi-arabia
Middle East Sports
Investment Forum
20251211 Arab News
“Agreement to boost Saudi
music sector”
https://www.arabnews.com/node/2625910/saudi-arabia
[Note 8]
20241226 FirstPost
“Saudi Arabia freezes
BRICS membership, says report amid Trump’s 100% tariff threat”
[Note 9]
20251104 國家自然科學基金委員會
〈我國學者在生物可吸收封堵器研究上取得進展〉
https://www.nsfc.gov.cn/p1/3381/2825/97443.html
《魯健訪談》〈20251219 對話潘湘斌〉
https://tv.cctv.com/2025/12/19/VIDETlgEDsmz3Dqi5mvavp1b251219.shtml
[Note 10]
Wiki, French military
withdrawal from West Africa (2022-2025)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_military_withdrawal_from_West_Africa_(2022%E2%80%932025)
Beginning in 2022, France
began to withdraw military troops from several West African nations following
decades of military presence and interventions. Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and
Chad all unilaterally terminated their defense agreements, while the Central
African Republic, Ivory Coast, and Senegal requested their withdrawal. The
withdrawal coincided with increasing opposition to French military intervention
in the Islamist insurgency in the Sahel, as well as several military coups instituting
governments unfavourable towards French interests.
[Note 11]
20250723 BBC
“Africa to be hit hard as
UK foreign aid cuts revealed”
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c1wpr39zg5xo
The government said in February it would slash foreign aid spending by
40% - from 0.5% of gross national income to 0.3% - to increase defence spending
to 2.5% after pressure from the US.
20250419 Africa News
“Trump administration
plans to shut down nearly 30 U.S. embassies — over half in Africa”
https://www.africanews.com/2025/04/19/trump-administration-plans-to-shut-down-nearly-30-us-embassies-over-half-in-africa//
20251206 The Reporter, Ethiopia
“US Strategy signals
shift in engagement with Ethiopia, Horn of Africa”
https://www.thereporterethiopia.com/48028/
A newly released US
National Security Strategy outlines a shift in Washington’s approach to Africa,
emphasizing targeted partnerships—including Ethiopia and conflict-prevention
initiatives in the wider Horn of Africa.
The document, issued by
the White House and signed by President Donald Trump, proposes leveraging new
diplomatic, economic, and security tools to advance U.S. interests on the
continent. It underscores the need to move beyond decades of aid-centered
relations toward trade and investment-driven engagement.
“For far too long,
American policy in Africa has focused on providing, and later on spreading,
liberal ideology,” the document states. “The United States should instead look
to partner with select countries to ameliorate conflict, foster mutually beneficial
trade relationships, and transition from a foreign aid paradigm to an
investment and growth paradigm capable of harnessing Africa’s abundant natural
resources and latent economic potential.”
[Note 12]
20250423 World Bank
“Economic Growth is speeding
up in Africa, but uncertainty clouds outlook”
Economic growth in
Sub-Saharan Africa is showing some resilience despite uncertainty in the global
economy and restricted fiscal space. Regional growth is expected to reach 3.5%
in 2025 and further accelerate to 4.3% in 2026-2027. This growth is mainly due
to increased private consumption and investments as inflation cools down and
currencies stabilize. The median inflation rate in the region declined from
7.1% in 2023 to 4.5% in 2024.
20251117 S&P Global
“Unlocking Africa’s
economic potential for faster long-term growth”
Most African economies
are expected to grow slowly but steadily in 2025 and 2026, averaging close to
the 3.8% observed since the end of the COVID-19 pandemic.
[Note 13]
Wiki, 2019 Russia-Africa
Summit
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Russia%E2%80%93Africa_Summit
The first Russia-Africa
Summit was held on 23–24 October 2019 in Sochi, Russia.
Wiki, 2023 Russia-Africa
Summit
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Russia%E2%80%93Africa_Summit
The second Russia–Africa
Summit was held at the Expo Forum in St. Petersburg on 27 and 28 July 2023,
following its postponement, having been originally scheduled for October 2022
at the African Union headquarters in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov visited approximately 21 different African nations between February 2022 and late 2024. Since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Lavrov has conducted multiple high-profile tours across the continent to bolster diplomatic support and bypass Western isolation.
List of African Countries
Visited (2022–2025)
Based on official reports
and diplomatic itineraries, Lavrov’s travels included:
2022: Egypt, Republic of
the Congo, Uganda, and Ethiopia.
2023: South Africa
(visited twice), Eswatini, Angola, Eritrea, Mali, Mauritania, Sudan, Kenya,
Burundi, and Mozambique.
2024: Guinea, Republic of
the Congo (second visit), Burkina Faso, and Chad.
2025: As of mid-2025,
Lavrov has primarily focused on multilateral hosting, such as meetings
surrounding the Russia-Africa Partnership, though he remains active in
bilateral diplomatic coordination.
20240306 POLITICO
“Russia’s foreign
minister again visits Africa”
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/06/03/russia-sergey-lavrov-africa-visit-00161376
Lavrov has visited the African continent several
times in the past couple of years as Russia seeks support — or at least
neutrality — from many of its 54 countries amid Moscow’s full-scale invasion of
Ukraine.
[Note 14]
20171115 東網
女兒城大畢業妻頻東來購物 穆加貝與港淵源深
https://hk.on.cc/int/bkn/cnt/news/20171115/bknint-20171115125042395-1115_17011_001.html
津巴布韋總統穆加貝與香港甚有淵源，早年他曾購入大埔獨立屋，供就讀城市大學的女兒入住；其妻格蕾絲多次到港購物，格蕾絲的女兒波納是香港城市大學會計系學生，於2011年畢業。
