我的《信報》文章(2023年7月6日A16頁)刊登後的改良加長版
《黃仁勳的食物論 與 奧尼爾對金磚的期盼》
www1.hkej.com/dailynews/commentary/article/3502306/黃仁勳的食物論與奧尼爾對金磚的期盼
許劍昭
5月27日，黃仁勳(6月市值1萬億美元的Nvidia 創辦人)以英語在台大演說，用「獵食」(running for food) 和「逃避成為別人的食物」(running from becoming food)作比喻，生動地描繪「叢林法則」。
[Note 1]
雖然此論述不僅反映當代商業市場殘酷的競爭現實，也是對現今人際及國際關係的真實寫照，但自古以來，人類至少有兩次改變這種狀況的嘗試。而奧尼爾(Jim O’Neill，於2001年提出金磚四國 BRIC概念)近月對擴展中的金磚組織成為西方「替代」選擇(alternative)作出期盼，也許表明這是人類第三次嘗試緩和存亡鬥爭、改善精神健康、走向共同富裕。
[Note 2]
「人食人」確有此事。其簡單歷史可參考《信報:林行止專欄》2009年10月14-16日連載三文，當中〈飽肚治病，人肉至上〉一篇饒有意義。
[Note 3]
第一次倡議減少彼此傷害、促進和平共處的文明嘗試是訴諸超自然力量，並逐漸演變為宗教。但其影響已由極盛轉為薄弱。
而基督教義在歐美熏陶人心的廣度、深度走下坡，更為當代的掠奪性人吃人價值觀埋下伏線。
關鍵點是16世紀時，荷蘭人為了反抗西班牙帝國的統治，以獲得波羅的海自由貿易的主導權及巨額利潤，引用古希臘晚期的「斯多葛哲學」(Stoicism)質疑君王的威權。經多次重新詮釋、刻意歪曲，它強調個人與大自然之間的直接交流，從而獲得心靈的解放、行為的自由。
[Note 4]
除了仍然忠於國王和教會的農民、工匠，城市人變得野心勃勃。商家為所欲為以實現利潤最大化，冒險家航行到海外，先掠金銀銅，後搶黑人作奴隸販賣。不感卑劣無恥，反覺顧盼自豪。
1808年文學經典《浮士德》的主角簽下了獲取全世界知識的契約後，做的第一件事就是勾引一個美麗的年輕女孩，反映了那個時代獵食者的醜陋。
18世紀開始，歐美一些知識分子目睹農田上的黑奴、工廠內的兒童諸種的苦難，認為這種等於人吃人的普遍做法必須停止，廣泛的討論激發第二次約束掠奪的嘗試。
除了歐洲的Robert Owen (1771-1858)及類似的思想家，美國有基於第三任總統重農思想的「傑弗遜學派」(Jeffersonians)。他們的警告之一，就是貨幣主義會助長惡性競爭、貪婪掠奪、為富不仁、國際霸權。但所有努力在歐美全都盡付東流。
[Note 5]
人吃人的人際及國際關成為西方的主流價值觀，做就全球的社會人生病態、貿易金融混亂、政治文明衝突。
在惡性通脹、極端天氣到處出現的時刻，奧尼爾於3月、4月連發兩文，表達對金磚組織的期盼。
或許是因為觀點不被西方主流媒體轉載，他在5月29日出人意料地接受俄羅斯電視《RT》歷時26分鐘的訪問。重申「為了讓美元終結，必須有『替代』(in order for
the dollar to end, there has to be some alternative) 。」
[Note 6]
儘管重點是結束美元霸權，但如果金磚組織要構成一個真正的貨幣體系替代，所需的轉變遠遠超出增加使用其他貨幣的範圍。當中抹去人吃人的價值觀，以保持彼此的信任與合作乃必不可少。
分兩個層面解釋。
首先是美元的替代。幾乎所有國家在出口商品及服務時，都優先選擇收取美元(或等同美元的歐元、日圓)。主要原因之一是，每當發展中國家要進口必需品或獲得必需服務時，往往要向美國或其盟友購買，
例如國防武器、電信設施、醫療器材、運輸工具、消防裝備、高新科技、工程諮詢、專利版權，故使用美元作為儲備貨幣既實用又保險。
出現根本改變的先決條件是，發展中國家可向非七國集團(G7)國購買絕大部分的優質經濟發展必需設施、專業服務、公共服務用品。
同時，非西方供應國願意接受非美元，
例如6月13日報導俄羅斯出售石油予巴基斯坦並接受人民幣;
或直接收取本國貨幣，
例如俄羅斯出口天然氣到中國自2022年起接受盧布、
今年4月30日報導中國出口商品到阿根廷並接受人民幣、
5月12日東盟國家同意增加使用本幣進行貿易結算、
6月13日肯尼亞總統建議非洲國家增加使用本幣結算洲內貿易(intra-continental trade) 。
[Note 7]
貨幣的最終價值是換取日常生活所需的物品或服務。關注美元的替代不是SWIFT數據，而是中國、印度、巴西、東盟等發展中國家的農業、工業、技術現代化及優質化步伐。
第二是人吃人價值觀的替代。有別於過去的神職人員、知識分子，這一次的嘗試似乎是由倡議共同富裕的政府决策者所推動。
中國以毅工勤奮、自主研發、產能升級、科技創新為基礎的和平崛起，增強了同儕國家的信心:
中東積極發展太空技術、
非洲利用太陽能生產化肥用的固定氮、
拉美攜手實施數字化(Linkin估計到2032年市場規模達2,078億美元)……
故20多個國家申請加入以「共同富裕」為路線圖的金磚組織，是理所當然的進展。
[Note 8]
印度作為全球第五大經濟體，莫迪政府 (2014- )
也讓其他發展中國家感到安心。原因之一是眾多智庫及學術界均認同，莫迪的國內治理與外交，借鑒了古印度經典《政事論》（梵語：Artha-śāstra，其思想有點類似中國的法家、縱橫家學說;1992年英譯初版較其他版本讓讀者更容易理解其國安考慮、地緣策略、經濟邏輯)，相信印度將在東西方之間保持中立，着重自保，而非爭霸。
[Note 9]
俄羅斯迄今在烏克蘭危機中高度克制，不僅沒有採取「斬首行動」，還只限奪取俄羅斯族裔居住的土地。因此，俄羅斯外長今年訪問巴西等拉美四國，另兩次訪問非洲共10國，均達成多項合作協議;六月的第26屆聖彼得堡國際經濟論壇有來自130國17,000多名與會者參加，都表明發展中國家合作共富的氛圍正在濃厚化。
[Note 10]
當大多數人尋求的是可持續發展的環境、衛生的居所、健康的飲食、合適的衣服、安定的工作，而非獨霸的利益、五官的興奮(所謂快樂）、無限的任意(所謂自由)，人吃人價值觀將會在替代西方的下一代文明中消失。
Notes
[Note 1]
2023 0526
Nvidia blog
“Nvidia CEO tells NTU grads to run, not walk — but
be prepared to stumble”
https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/2023/05/26/huang-ntu-commencement/
“You are running for food, or you are running
from becoming food.
And often times, you can’t tell which. Either way, run.”
「不管你是為掠食而南征北討(running for food) ，
還是為避免被吞噬而東奔西跑(running from
becoming food) ，
甚至經常弄不清自己正處於哪種狀況，
也必須持續疾走(Often times, you can’t tell which . Either
way, run)……
不可緩行怠慢 (Don’t walk) 。」
NVIDIA founder
and CEO Jensen Huang today urged graduates of National Taiwan University to run
hard to seize the unprecedented opportunities that AI will present, but embrace
the inevitable failures along the way.
[Note 2]
2023 0329 South Africa Enginneering News
“O’Neill urges Brics bloc to expand,
challenge dollar’s dominance”
https://www.engineeringnews.co.za/article/oneill-urges-brics-bloc-to-expand-challenge-dollars-dominance-2023-03-29
Jim O’Neill, the former Goldman Sachs Group chief economist
who coined the acronym Bric, said the bloc of nations that later adopted the
name should expand and work to counter the dollar’s dominance.
In a paper published in the Global
Policy journal on March 26, O’Neill called on the group to apply strict
criteria to ensure the addition of any new members to its ranks helps further
its aims and urged it to focus on climate finance, improving healthcare and
boosting trade.
2023 0413 Project Syndicate
Jim O’Neill, “A BRICS Threat to the Dollar?”
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/brics-plus-and-the-future-of-dollar-dominance-by-jim-o-neill-2023-04
Perceived threats to the dollar’s role in the global financial system
are nothing new; they have been a frequent occurrence since the 1980s. But
until would-be challengers can find a credible
alternative to the dollar for their own
savings, the greenback’s dominance will not really be in doubt.
[Note 3]
《信報:林行止專欄》2009年10月
14日〈物產豐富，毋須食人〉
15日〈飽肚治病，人肉至上〉
16日〈賣嬰殺嬰，理性行為〉
[Note 4]
Christopher Brooke (2012), “Philosophic Pride:
Stoicism and Political Thought from Lipsius to Rousseau”, Princeton and Oxford:
Princeton University Press.
https://www.amazon.com/Philosophic-Pride-Stoicism-Political-Rousseau/dp/069115208X
Andrew Shifflett (1998), “Stoicism, Politcs and
Literature in the Age of Milton: War and Peace reconciled”, Cambridge:
Cambridge University Press.
https://www.amazon.com/Stoicism-Politics-Literature-Age-Milton/dp/B01K0TGDO2
[Note 5]
Wiki, Robert Owen (1771-1858)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Owen
Robert Owen (/ˈoʊɪn/; 14 May 1771 – 17 November
1858) was a Welsh textile manufacturer, philanthropist and social reformer, and
a founder of utopian socialism and the co-operative movement. He strove to
improve factory working conditions, promoted experimental socialistic
communities, and sought a more collective approach to child-rearing, including
government control of education.
Alec Marsh (1998), “Money and Modernity: Pound,
Williams, and the Spirit of Jefferson”, Tuscaloosa and London: The University
of Alabama Press.
https://www.amazon.com/Money-Modernity-Williams-Spirit-Jefferson/dp/0817309217
[Note 6]
2023 0529
RT TV show: Going Underground
“Ex-Goldman Sachs boss Jim O’Neill on the rise of
BRICS and the backlash against ‘Americanization’”
https://www.rt.com/shows/going-underground/577024-lord-jim-oneill-g7-americanization/
2023 0530
RT, “BRICS could smash dollar dominance — Jim
O’Neill”
https://www.rt.com/business/577095-brics-us-dollar-dominance-ending/
According to
him, a growing number of countries are considering joining BRICS, but the group
of five should determine what new members can actually bring to the
table. “In that case it is possible to seriously think that the BRICS
countries could be at the basis of some new kind of – not only currency – but
some kind of competitor to the US financial system,” O’Neill
explained, adding that “in order for the dollar to end, there has to
be some alternative.”
[Note 7]
2023 0613
Reuters
“Pakistan paid in Chinese currency for discounted
Russian oil”
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/pakistans-russian-crude-shipment-paid-chinese-currency-minister-2023-06-12/
2023 0613
Reuters
“Pakistan paid in Chinese currency for discounted
Russian oil”
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/petrochina-signs-gas-agreement-with-russias-gazprom-2022-09-07/
2023 0430
Silk Road Briefing
“Argentina to use RMB Yuan in trade settlements
with China”
https://www.silkroadbriefing.com/news/2023/04/30/argentina-to-use-rmb-yuan-in-trade-settlements-with-china/#:~:text=Argentina%20will%20start%20paying%20for,its%20government%20announced%20last%20Wednesday.
2023 0512
ASEAN Briefing
“ASEAN to Increase Local Currency Trade, Reducing
Reliance on the US Dollar”
https://www.aseanbriefing.com/news/asean-to-increase-local-currency-transactions-reducing-reliance-on-the-us-dollar/
2023 0614
Sahara Reporters
“Kenya Selling To Djibouti Has To Look For US
Dollars? – President Ruto Demands Use Of Local Currencies In African Trade”
https://saharareporters.com/2023/06/14/kenya-selling-djibouti-has-look-us-dollars-president-ruto-demands-use-local-currencies
[Note 8]
UAE and Mohammed Bin Rashid Space Centre
https://u.ae/en/about-the-uae/science-and-technology/key-sectors-in-science-and-technology/space-science-and-technology
The UAE is seeking opportunities to explore
celestial bodies, develop satellite communications technology and deploy the
latest space technologies in terrestrial applications. The UAE recognises the
need for the applications of remote sensing through satellites, including
natural resource mapping, environmental monitoring, land-use planning and
security.
2019 0717
Science Direct
“Prospects and Challenges for Solar Fertilizers”
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2542435119302132
Using solar energy to convert triple bonded
molecular dinitrogen from the air into fixed nitrogen products that act as
nutrients for plants presents an opportunity to develop “solar fertilizers.”
2023 0227 Linkin
“Latin America Digital Transformation Market 2023-
Future Challenges, Growth Opportunities Trends and Forecast Report 2032: SPER
Market Research Report”
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/latin-america-digital-transformation-market-2023-2032-shrivastav
According to SPER Market Research, the Latin
America Digital Transformation Market is estimated to
reach USD 207.87 billion by 2032 with a CAGR of 15.13%. Latin America is
one of the fastest-growing regions in the world in terms of digital
transformation. The growth of the digital transformation market in Latin
America is driven by several factors such as the increasing adoption of
cloud-based solutions, rising demand for automation and artificial
intelligence, and the growth of e-commerce and digital marketing.
2023 0223 TV
BRICS
“There are 20 countries wishing to become part of
BRICS and the SCO”
https://tvbrics.com/en/news/there-are-20-countries-wishing-to-become-part-of-brics-and-the-sco/
2023 0524
Modern Diplomacy
“More than 30 countries want to join the BRICS”
https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2023/05/24/more-than-30-countries-want-to-join-the-brics/
[Note 9]
zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/政事论
政事論（梵語：Artha-śāstra），又譯爲政治論、實利論、政治經濟
理論，是古代印度以梵語書寫的關於治國、經濟政策和軍事戰略的論典，屬於印度教經籍的論典部分。其作者可能不止一人，傳統上認為為孔雀王朝政治家考底利耶所作。
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arthashastra
The Arthashastra (Sanskrit: अर्थशास्त्रम्, IAST: Arthaśāstram) is an Ancient Indian Sanskrit
treatise on statecraft, political science, economic policy and military
strategy.[1][2][3] Kautilya, also identified as
Vishnugupta and Chanakya, is traditionally credited as the author of the text
2021 0906
Nature: humanities and social sciences communications
“Beyond Eurocentrism: Kautilya’s realism and
India’s regional diplomacy”
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-021-00888-6
2016 1207
Gateway House
“The Arthashastra in Modi’s India”
In Modi’s worldview, bolder than that of his
predecessors, India has a bigger place than envisaged before. Consonant with
this, the prime minister’s foreign policy mirrors the Arthashastra’s emphasis
on pragmatic and intelligent use of power, informed by knowledge and the larger
cause of the people. Has it been successful so far?
https://www.gatewayhouse.in/the-arthashastra-in-modis-india/
Amazon
The Arthashastra (Penguin classics)
Paperback – 1992 1st edition, 2000 2nd edition
by Kautilya (Author)
https://www.amazon.com/Arthashastra-Penguin-classics-Kautilya/dp/0140446036
2023 0529
Times of India
“Nine years of good governance that fostered
development and touched lives of millions”
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/voices/nine-years-of-good-governance-that-fostered-development-and-touched-lives-of-millions/?source=app&frmapp=yes
Kautilya Arthashastra underlines the duties of a
king, (a ruler in present day), instructing on how to reign. ‘Prajasukhe sukham
radnya prajanaamcha hite hitam natmapriyam hitam radnya prajanaam tu
priyamhitam’ – implying ‘the happiness of the king (read ruler) lies in the
happiness of the people; he should see his own interest only in the interest of
the people. The interest of the king is not in the one who is dear to himself,
his interest is in the one who is dear to the subjects. And when we see
governance under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra
Modi over the last nine years, we realize that the Modi government has indeed
fulfilled all its duties of a true ruler as described by Kautilya Arthashastra.
[Note 10]
2023 0606
The Jamestown Foundation
“Lavrov returns to Africa”
https://jamestown.org/program/lavrov-returns-to-africa/
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has engaged in vigorous
activity in Africa and Latin America over the past six months. He visited Brazil, Cuba, Venezuela and
Nicaragua in Latin America, while in Africa, the Russian minister traveled to
South Africa twice, Eswatini, Angola, Eritrea, Mali, Mauritania, Sudan, Kenya,
Burundi and Mozambique. His visits to the African states have been presented
under the pretext of preparations for the second upcoming Russia-Africa Summit
in St. Petersburg starting on July 26 (RIA
Novosti, April 21; Vedomosti, May 30).
2023 0614
Special Eurasia
“Shifting Geopolitical Tides: St. Petersburg
International Economic Forum Explores Russia’s Eastward Pivot”
https://www.specialeurasia.com/2023/06/14/spief-russia-economy/
According to Anton Kobyakov, Adviser to the
President of the Russian Federation, Executive Secretary of the SPIEF
Organizing Committee, on June 13th, 2023, over 17,000
people from 130 countries and territories have confirmed their participation in
the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum.
