我的《信報》文章(2024年4月23日A15頁)刊登後的改良加長版
《沖繩遷徒原住民計劃 與 島嶼的具體控制》
www1.hkej.com/dailynews/commentary/article/3743388/沖繩遷徙原住民計劃與島嶼的具體控制
許劍昭
3月31日《日經亞洲》報道:日本在台灣附近的宮古島、石垣島的基地已可容納飛彈部隊，並計劃於2025年3月在宮古島部署電子戰部隊
文章引述一位東京大學教授稱，假若北京攻擊台灣，很可能會進佔附近的沖繩島嶼作軍事行動之用;故必須在此強化軍事設施(讀者請留意「進佔…沖繩島嶼」這句;稍後分析) 。
[Note 1]
所謂的「台灣有事」論(Taiwan Contingency)，據說源於前首相安倍晉三在2006年提出的觀點。從那時起，應付「有事」的相關描述愈來愈立體。
[Note 2]
今年2月28日《日本時報》報道:政府消息人士透露，日本正協調多個機場，於「有事」時，把約12萬靠近台灣的沖繩群島居民、遊客，遷徒至日本九州。
[Note 3]
找個軍事行動為藉口把孤島上的原住民遷走，不是什麼新鮮事。
1968年，英國為了將印度洋的迭戈加西亞島(Diego Garcia)租給美國建立空軍基地，強行將2000名原住民遷移到毛里求斯。該島(被批評為「羞恥島」Island of Shame)後來成為美國在1991年海灣戰爭、2001年阿富汗戰爭、2003年伊拉克戰爭展開期間的主要基地。
[Note 4]
此效果證明英美兩國政府在二戰後全球非殖民化時代，仍然堅持在五大洋保留既得島嶼控制權(見附表)的盤算，符合實際戰略需要。
劍橋大學教授 Peter Nolan指出，為了國家利益的延伸，西方列強「革命性」地無中生有，創造了領土海岸線對出200海里（相當於370公里）的「專屬經濟區/海域」概念。
經過9年的談判，《聯合國海洋法公約》於1982年獲得通過。憑此法理依據，英美戰艦在環球游戈以保護其領海利益、監視別國在海岸附近的活動;且要求他國尊重這項有利於他們的權利。
2011年時任總統奧巴馬甚至宣稱「美國一直是一個太平洋國家」，但獲此地位並非使用文明的方式。例如在殖民前，夏威夷土著人口估計為20至30萬;在引入肺結核、天花等傳染病後，土著人口在1900年降至3萬，Nolan教授認同其他學者用「種族滅絕」來描述這段歷史(頁196) 。
[Note 5]
也是為了維持這種全球海洋大國地位，英美經常舞弄雙重標準。
1960年，聯合國大會通過《給予殖民地國家和人民獨立宣言》（1514（XV）號決議），又稱《非殖民化宣言》。
[Note 6]
但出於不同盤算，英美抓住對大量殖民時代奪取的島嶼（有或沒有居民）的控制不放，且發明了「專屬經濟區/海域」，加強對島嶼附近區域的控制。
1982年，阿根廷出兵收回福克蘭群島（Falkland Islands）主權，英國立即利用軍事優勢重新掌控島嶼。
2017年，英國對西班牙嘗試收回直布羅陀島(Gibraltar)主權作出強烈反應，威脅要與西班牙開戰。
2019年國際法院裁定迭戈加西亞島從毛里求斯分離屬於非法，但英美均認定該項裁決為無效。
[Note 7]
有鑒於此，英美對北京突然動武統一台灣的可能性非常敏感。在英美的影響下，東京也顯得有點緊張，擔心連帶(有原住民持續抗議的)沖繩島嶼也會被改變現狀。
[Note 8]
在當今高科技戰爭時代，太平洋島嶼布局變得空前重要;由於戰艦被擊沉的風險很高，島嶼可被用作不沉的航空母艦。
沖繩島嶼靠近台灣島，假如「有事」，除了高超音速導彈及戰鬥機，無人機、無人艇、電子訊號干擾系統亦是決定勝敗關鍵的武器。遷徒島嶼原住民可帶來軍事便利，但這會把塵封的記憶重現眼前。
在描述1955年第二次強搶耕地改建軍事基地時，基督教牧師Rev. Rickard (1951年抵達沖繩，之後在此服務多年)這樣寫:「3月11日上午8時，300名全副武裝的士兵乘坐登陸艇上岸…持槍警告農民離開，否則將被逮捕…房屋和牲畜棚被拆除…我們探望一位被士兵槍傷的六歲小女孩……7月19日，我親眼目睹了諫濱村在槍口下(at gunpoint)被佔領、被摧毀…」(詳見1989年出版的沖繩伊江島土地事件圖片紀實集《The Island where people live》) 。
[Note 9]
美國憂慮北京武力收回台灣島、日本為解放軍可能會佔領沖繩島嶼犯愁，均有其因由;其中之一是是英美的雙重標準不斷破壞國際組織所定的諸類規則。
沖繩島被移交日本治理而非獨立及前述的福克蘭、直布羅陀、迭戈加西亞事件，分別顯示非殖民化規則不被尊重。今年美國甚至稱聯合國最近關於加沙停火的決議(2728號)不具約束力。
[Note 10]
既然英美自己不尊重(不利於他們的)規則，當然也猜測他國不會尊重該類規則，而是力量決定一切。故此，在島嶼上強化軍備乃保護其控制剩下的、唯一的方法。
但美國在數年內會傾向維持台海現狀，原因之一是烏克蘭危機期間俄羅斯的耐力遠超預期，華盛頓不敢高估自己同時兼顧歐洲、中東、東亞的能力。
相反，萬一多個地區發生大規模戰爭，而美日聯軍戰敗，他們失去的不僅是對台灣的政治影響力，還很可能會失去對太平洋島嶼群的具體控制。
即使在21世紀，Rev. Rickard牧師對殖民遺毒的批評仍然有效:「… （二戰期間）三分一的沖繩平民死於飢餓、疾病......許多人被當作間諜處決，因為日本人不信任他們的忠誠……沖繩於1879 年被攻佔前，原名為琉球，當地人自主自治存在了500年…但在日本統治下，沖繩語被禁止…所有原住民在社會、經濟、教育方面都被視為二等公民 (second-class citizens)……」
[Note 11]
在經常舞弄雙重標準的強國操縱下，被歸化為日本國籍超過百年的沖繩原住民，於祖先的土地上安居樂業一直遇到困難;幸而從長遠來看，台海的和平、穩定可期。
Notes
[Note 1]
2024
0331 Nikkei Asia
"If
China were to attack Taiwan, it would most likely attack these nearby Japanese
islands," Yasuhiro Matsuda, professor of security in Asia at the
University of Tokyo, told Nikkei Asia. "If there were no bases on the
islands or if Japan's defense was weak, China would try to occupy them and use
them militarily for its operations."
[Note 2]
2023 0814 Stanford Freeman Spogli Institute for
International Studies
“The Cost of the ‘Taiwan
Contingency’ and Japan’s Preparedness”
https://fsi.stanford.edu/news/cost-taiwan-contingency-and-japans-preparedness
The
phrase "a Taiwan contingency is a Japan contingency" was introduced
by former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe at a symposium sponsored by a Taiwanese
think tank in 2006. This comment was followed by the statement, "It is
also a contingency for the Japan-U.S. alliance." How will Japanese public
opinion react to the "ultimate choice" in the face of a Taiwan
contingency?
[Note 3]
2024 0228 The Japan Times
“Japan mulls Taiwan
contingency evacuation routes for remote islands”
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2024/02/28/japan/islanders-evacuation-routes-taiwan-contingency/
The central government is
examining a plan to evacuate a total of about 120,000 residents and tourists
from the Sakishima islands using commercial aircrafts, as well alternative
evacuation routes using ships.
[Note 4]
Wiki, British Indian Ocean
Territory
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Indian_Ocean_Territory
The Chagossians, then
numbering about 2,000 people, were expelled by the UK government to Mauritius
and Seychelles, even from the outlying islands far away from the military base
on Diego Garcia. Today, the exiled Chagossians are still trying to return, but
the UK government has repeatedly denied them the right of return despite calls
from numerous human rights organizations to let them return.[9][10] The islands
are off-limits to Chagossians, tourists, and the media.
David Vine (2009), “Island of
Shame — The Secret History of the U.S. Military Base on Diego Garcia”
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Island-Shame-Secret-History-Military/dp/0691138699
[Note 5]
See Ch. 5 “China, Western
colonialism and The UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS)”
in
Peter Nolan (2014),
“Re-balancing China: Essays on the Global Financial Crisis, Industrial Policy
and International Relations”, London: Anthem Press.
P. 196
“… The impact of infectious
disease produced a ‘genocide’ in which the population fell to as low as 30,000
indigenous Hawaiian people by 1900 …”
[Note 6]
United Nations
“United Nations and
decolonization”
https://www.un.org/dppa/decolonization/en/about
In 1960, the General Assembly
adopted the Declaration on the Granting of Independence to Colonial Countries
and Peoples (General Assembly resolution 1514 (XV)), known also as the
Declaration on Decolonization. By this resolution, the General Assembly,
considering the important role of the United Nations in assisting the movement
for independence in Trust and Non-Self-Governing Territories, solemnly
proclaimed the necessity of bringing colonialism in all its forms and
manifestations to a speedy and unconditional end, and in this context,
declared, inter alia, that all people had a right to self-determination.
[Note 7]
Wiki, Falklands War 1982
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falklands_War
The Falklands War (Spanish:
Guerra de Malvinas) was a ten-week undeclared war between Argentina and the
United Kingdom in 1982 over two British dependent territories in the South
Atlantic: the Falkland Islands and its territorial dependency, South Georgia
and the South Sandwich Islands. The conflict began on 2 April 1982, when
Argentina invaded and occupied the Falkland Islands, followed by the invasion
of South Georgia the next day. On 5 April, the British government dispatched a
naval task force to engage the Argentine Navy and Air Force before making an
amphibious assault on the islands. The conflict lasted 74 days and ended with
an Argentine surrender on 14 June, returning the islands to British control.
2017 0403 Vox
“Why Britain just (briefly)
threatened to go to war with Spain”
https://www.vox.com/world/2017/4/3/15161114/britain-threatens-war-spain-gibraltar-brexit
After Britain’s stunning
Brexit vote last summer, the 30,000 or so residents of the tiny British
territory of Gibraltar voted overwhelmingly to remain in the European Union,
with 95.9 percent casting their ballots to stay in the EU. Shortly after the
vote results were announced, Madrid — which has long believed that the
territory rightfully belongs to Spain — called for joint sovereignty over
Gibraltar.
That hasn’t played well with
British politicians — and some are now publicly threatening actual war with
Spain.
British Defense Secretary Sir
Michael
Fallon suggested on Sunday that Britain is ready to use military force
to defend the sovereignty of Gibraltar, vowing to go “all the way” to protect
the territory.
2019 0522 United
Nations
“General Assembly welcomes
International Court of Justice Opinion on Chagos Archipelago, adopts text
calling for Mauritius’ complete decolonization”
https://press.un.org/en/2019/ga12146.doc.htm
2021 0209 World Socialist Web
“UK dismisses UN Maritime
Court ruling that it has no claim to Chagos Islands/Diego Garcia”
https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2021/02/09/chag-f09.html
[Note 8]
See:
Miyume Tanji and Daniel Broudy
(2017), “Okinawa Under Occupation: McDonaldization and Resistance to Neoliberal
Propaganda”, Singapore: Palgrave Macmillan.
https://www.amazon.com/Okinawa-Under-Occupation-McDonaldization-Resistance/dp/9811055971
Miyume Tanji (2006), “Myth,
Protest and Struggle in Okinawa”, London: Routledge.
https://www.amazon.com/Protest-Struggle-Sheffield-Japanese-Routledge/dp/0415546885
[Note 9]
See Translator’s Introduction
in
Ahagon Shoko (1989),
translated by C. Harold Rickard, “The Island where people live: a photo
documentary of the troubled land of Iejima, Okinawa Islands”, published by
Christian Conference of Asia, Hong Kong.
p. ix
“… At 8:00 A.M. on March 11,
300 fully armed U.S. soldiers came ashore by landing craft …some confronted the
unarmed villagers with rifles, a work detail began to erect barbed wire fences
… warning people to move off their property ‘voluntarily’ or be arrested
…Houses and livestock sheds were demolished … We visited a little six-year-old girl who had been injured by rifle
fire from U.S. soldiers …”
[Note 10]
2024 0325
United Nations
“Gaza: Security Council passes resolution
demanding ‘an immediate ceasefire’ during Ramadan”
https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/03/1147931
The UN Security Council adopts a
resolution tabled by its 10 non-permanent members (E-10) demanding a ceasefire
in Gaza during Ramadan, by a vote of 14 in favour to none against, with one
abstention (United States)
Resolution 2728 also calls for the
immediate release of hostages and for ensuring humanitarian access to Gaza
2024 0329 The New Arab
The US says the UN Security Council's Gaza ceasefire resolution is
non-binding. Is that correct?
https://www.newarab.com/news/us-calls-unsc-gaza-ceasefire-resolution-non-binding-it
US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller has said
Resolution 2728 was non-binding. But legal experts who spoke with The New Arab disagreed.
[Note 11]
See Translator’s Introduction
in
Ahagon Shoko (1989),
translated by C. Harold Rickard, “The Island where people live: a photo
documentary of the troubled land of Iejima, Okinawa Islands”, published by
Christian Conference of Asia, Hong Kong.
p. vi
“… (during WWII) Almost
one-third of the civilian people died of wounds, starvation and disease … Many
had been executed as spies because the Japanese did not trust their loyalty …”
p. vii
“… For more than 500 years,
the Ryukyu Islands existed as an independent kingdom …Okinawa was annexed by
Japan in 1879 as the first territorial expansion of the Japanese Empire … The
Okinawan people were treated by Japan as second-class citizens and ‘country cousins’.
They were kept in low status socially, economically and educationally …
Use of ht Okinawan language was forbidden …“
