《「特朗普版西方」對撼「北約版西方」》
我的《信報》文章(2025年1月7日A14頁)
刊登後的改良加長版
www1.hkej.com/dailynews/commentary/article/3972257/「特朗普版西方」對撼「北約版西方」
特朗普版西方 與 北約版西方 的對撼
許劍昭
特朗普及其謀略團隊(下稱「特朗普團隊」) 對俄羅斯的態度跟北約鷹派相比，頗有善意;於此可見諸四個政策觀點。
首先，特朗普團隊一貫主張停止軍援基輔，以盡快結束俄烏衝突，此舉對俄羅斯有利。
[Note 1]
第二，在其首任總統期內，特朗普基於白人的出生率下降(1999至2016年，白人新生兒數減10.8%)，希望有更多移民來自白人為主的俄羅斯及北歐國家;右翼的特朗普支持者更認為俄羅斯是白人未來生存的關鍵。2017年就有一篇左翼文章，以《餐館侍應生，來一客1.11億俄羅斯白人》作標題，嘲諷特朗普。
[Note 2]
第三，特朗普團隊積極推動減少對市場的監管，不僅明顯承載安蘭德(Ayn Rand 1905-82)的倡議，特朗普本人也多次高度讚揚這位為貪婪辯護 (Greed is good)的俄羅斯移民。
[Note 3]
第四，特朗普一直很欣賞俄羅斯總統普京的處事方法、管治成就。2022年3月，CNN新聞報道特朗普已經是第10次稱讚普京:「最機智(smartest)的人會登上頂峰……人們問我:『普京機智嗎？』是的，普京很機智。」德國前總理默克爾的回憶錄也提到她有特朗普對普京「迷戀」的觀感。
[Note 4]
特朗普團隊 對俄羅斯的態度，不僅跟自二戰以來的西方主流新自由主義(Neoliberalism)戰略價值觀有別，甚至可說是南轅北轍。而鑑於特朗普當今具有壓倒性的影響力及人脈，即使在總統第二任期後，其倡議仍大有機會繼續主宰西方政治取向的演變。
歷史學家 Norman Davies(1939- ) 在其1996 年的著作中指出，「西方」這個概念自古至今有十二個版本，包括羅馬帝國及美國領導的冷戰思維西方;每個版本各具不同的面貌、特徵。
[Note 5]
以此作參考，本文認為，特朗普團隊正構建一個「特朗普版本的西方」，跟現時主流建制的新自由主義「北約版西方」，有至少三個重要的差異。
第一，北約版西方認為「西方」是融集資本主義、民主、科學、人權、自由為一體的陣營，那些不採納此等理念的人被視為隔膜另一邊的「他者」(the Other) 。
[Note 6]
特朗普版西方則認為「西方」是偉大的美國及其追隨者的組合，其餘各國是為西方供應原料、提供服務、購買貨品的市場。
第二，北約版西方的安全疑慮中，「恐俄心態」(Russophobia) 權重比例極高，箇中原因源遠流長;自16世紀始，西歐諸國關於俄羅斯的文獻大多是負面的描述。
[Note 7]
例如蘇格蘭哲學家休謨(David Hume 1711-76)認為，黑種人天生不如白種人，而韃靼人(當時對俄羅斯人的貶稱)則是白種人中最粗魯、最野蠻的。法國哲學家盧梭(Rousseau 1712-78)在《社會契約論》第二卷中，指出「俄羅斯永遠不會變得文明」。
捷克裔法國作家昆德拉（Milan Kundera 1929-2023，作品包括
《生命中不能承受之輕》）直言中歐是被俄羅斯強佔的西方的一部分。英國陸軍上將，二戰時期邱吉爾的參謀長，首任北約秘書長伊斯梅(Lord Ismay 1887-1965)，更明言北約的任務是引進美國人、驅逐俄羅斯人、壓制德國人。
[Note 8]
相反，特朗普版的西方願意與俄羅斯友好，且認為莫斯科有能力讓俄羅斯其及盟國的經濟保持良好秩序，為偉大的美國提供市場。
第三，在國際關係層面，北約版西方政府基於對方是否實踐西式民主價值來區分朋友或敵人。
特朗普版的西方，則根據特朗普(和馬斯克 Elon Musk)對某領導人是否機智的判斷，來敲定元首之間的關係、政府之間的關係。當某領導人被認為機智，自視為天才且「不斷愈來愈機智」的特朗普就願意與他交往結友，與他的政府談判，與他的國家合作。
根據CNN新聞2019年7月報道，曾被特朗普稱讚為機智的領導人包括普京、金正恩、杜特爾特、艾爾多安、習近平。讚揚的一個共同原因似乎是這些領導人對國內事務能有序治理，能使國家經濟穩定地成為美國的市場;意識形態對立的敵意程度因此大幅降低，互惠互利的合作空間反而拓寬、深化(當然，特朗普會堅持美國優先、多利，而其他國家次要、少利，但還是較「零和遊戲」佳) 。
[Note 9]
若然特朗普團隊暖和美俄關係，莫斯科當會把握此機會拓寬生存空間、重振民生經濟，方法之一是充分利用歐亞絲路。
事實上，俄羅斯近30年經已積極投入此路線，向東經銷日用品到中國（深圳已有三間俄羅斯超市落戶，供應早餐穀物、護膚乳霜等)，向南營賣原油到印度、巴基斯坦，向西運售天然氣到德國、奧地利。
[Note 10]
更重要的是，歐亞區域同時亦已透過「一帶一路」及上海合作組織，於宏觀層面引入「人類命運共同體」理念，於微觀及營運實踐層面開通途經哈薩克、白俄羅斯、波蘭、德國漢堡……多國的絲路班列鐵道網，往來貨品包括服裝鞋帽、玻璃器皿、汽車配件、光伏燈飾、炊具傢器等各類日常消費品。
[Note 11]
由於美俄關係短期內不可能恢復到俄烏戰爭前的狀態，莫斯科必會偕同願意參與歐亞絲路發展的歐亞諸國，恢復成為彼此的民生商品貿易夥伴，達致東西方合作互利共贏，化解疑俄心態。
無論這些效果怎樣微小，任何正面的影響，積少成多，均有助多次揚言會阻止第三次世界大戰的特朗普團隊，克制北約鷹派的恐俄勢力。
[Note 12]
未來十年，特朗普團隊不僅會向各國「開天殺價，落地還錢」般獅吼(大幅提高關稅、收回巴拿馬運河、控制格陵蘭……)，以達到美國利益最大化;還要與北約建制爭奪國際事務的主導權、話語權(馬斯克12月18日猛批路透社、21日譴責美聯社、25日聲討《維基百科》)，且壯大特朗普版西方的感染力、制約力、吞併力，甚至最終歷史地取代北約版西方。
[Note 13]
吊詭的是，特朗普的霸凌與北約建制的嗜戰之間的對撼，將會產生「負負得正」的效果;而居中促進舉世和平，造就這項「正」果的(但在許多方面仍然不公平)，乃打破隔膜、消除猜疑、重建互信的歐亞絲路。
Notes
[Note 1]
2024 0626 Reuters
WASHINGTON, June 25 (Reuters) - Two key advisers to Donald Trump have presented him with a plan to end Russia's war in Ukraine - if he wins the Nov. 5 presidential election
Under the plan drawn up by Kellogg and Fred Fleitz, who both served as chiefs of staff in Trump's National Security Council during his 2017-2021 presidency, there would be a ceasefire based on prevailing battle lines during peace talks, Fleitz said.
They have presented their strategy to Trump, and the Republican presidential candidate responded favorably, Fleitz added. "I'm not claiming he agreed with it or agreed with every word of it, but we were pleased to get the feedback we did," he said.
2024 1208
PARIS, Dec 8 (Reuters) - U.S.
President-elect Donald Trump called on Sunday for an immediate ceasefire and
negotiations between Ukraine and Russia to end "the madness",
prompting Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelenskiy and the Kremlin to list their
conditions.
Trump made his comments just hours
after meeting Zelenskiy in Paris for their first face-to-face talks since Trump
won last month's U.S. election. Trump has vowed to bring about a negotiated end
to the conflict, but so far has not provided details.
[Note 2]
A Census data brief
by the Applied Population Lab
“White Deaths Exceed
Births in a Majority of U.S. States”
https://apl.wisc.edu/data-briefs/natural-decrease-18
Between 1999 and
2016, the number of white births fell by 10.8 percent to 2,094,000
2017 Mar 10
Trump and Putin:
white supremacy
“Waiter, 111 million
white Russians, please.”
http://fpif.org/waiter-111-million-white-russians-please/
2004 1023
DavidDuke.com “Is Russia the key to White survival?”
https://davidduke.com/is-russia-the-key-to-white-survival/
What role does Russia and the former
Eastern Bloc countries play in this scheme of things? Russia is a White nation!
Of the many capital cities of Europe, it is accurate to say that Moscow is the
Whitest of them all.
2024 0409 MSNBC
“Trump makes unsubtle call for immigration from ‘nice’ countries”
[Note 3]
2016 0412
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2016/04/trumps-role-model-is-an-ayn-rand-character.html
Trump described himself as an Ayn Rand fan. He said of her novel Fountainhead, “It relates to business (and) beauty (and) life and inner emotions.”
Wiki
“Ayn Rand”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ayn_Rand
[Note 4]
2022 0328 CNN
“Donald Trump just can’t stop praising Vladimir Putin”
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/28/politics/trump-putin-ukraine-russia-smart/index.html
CNN —When someone tells you who they are, believe them the first time. Or in the case of Donald Trump, the 10th time.
At a campaign rally in Georgia over the weekend, the former President, again, praised Russian President Vladimir Putin.
“The smartest one gets to the top,” Trump told the crowd. “That didn’t work so well recently in our country. But they ask me, ‘Is Putin smart?’ Yes, Putin was smart…”
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/12/03/world/angela-merkel-trump-fascination-putin-kim-intl/index.html
Former German
Chancellor Angela Merkel has recalled her impression of Donald Trump during his
first term in the White House, saying the new American president-elect showed a
“fascination with the sheer power” of strongmen like Russian President Vladimir
Putin
[Note 5]
Wiki, “Norman Davies”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norman_Davies
Norman Davies (1996), “Europe: A
History”, Oxford University Press.
https://www.amazon.com/Europe-History-Norman-Davies/dp/0198201710
[Note 6]
David Gress (2004), “From Plato to
NATO: The Idea of the West and its Opponents”, The Free Press.
https://www.amazon.com/Plato-NATO-Idea-West-Opponents/dp/0743264886
[Note 7]
Wiki, “Anti-Russian sentiment”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-Russian_sentiment
Anti-Russian sentiment or Russophobia is dislike or fear or hatred of Russia, Russian people, or Russian culture. The opposite of Russophobia is Russophilia.
Historically, Russophobia has included state-sponsored and grassroots mistreatment and discrimination, as well as propaganda containing anti-Russian sentiment.[1][2] In Europe, Russophobia was based on various more or less fantastic fears of Russian conquest of Europe, such as those based on The Will of Peter the Great forgery documented in France in the 19th century and later resurfacing in Britain as a result of fears of a Russian attack on British-colonized India in relation to the Great Game. Pre-existing anti-Russian sentiment in Germany is considered to be one of the factors influencing treatment of Russian population under German occupation during World War II.
Nowadays, a variety of popular culture clichés and negative stereotypes about Russians still exist, notably in the Western world.[3] Some individuals may have prejudice or hatred against Russians due to history, racism, propaganda, or ingrained stereotypes.[4][5][6][7][8] Negative views of Russia are widespread, but most prevalent in Western liberal democracies.[9][10][11]
2024 1218 RT
“Queen of Russophobia (Kaja Kallas): History of top EU diplomat’s blatant anti-Russian bias”
https://www.rt.com/news/609539-eu-kallas-russophobic-stance/
Wiki, “Kaja Kallas”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kaja_Kallas
She was the first female prime minister
of Estonia, a role she held from 2021 until 2024, when she resigned in advance
of her appointment as High Representative of the European Union for Foreign
Affairs and Security Policy.[2] Since 2024, she has served as High
Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy
and Vice-President of the European Commission in the second von der Leyen
Commission.
[Note 8]
See Ch.3 “Making Europe: The Russian
Other”, in
Iver B. Neumann (1998), “Uses of the
Other”, University of Minnesota Press.
https://www.amazon.com/Uses-Other-European-Identity-Formation/dp/0816630836
[Note 9]
2019 702 CNN
“15 times Donald Trump praised authoritarian rulers”
2024 1216 Caspianpost
“Trump calls Türkiye ‘very smart’ and
praises Erdogan’s leadership”
https://caspianpost.com/politics/trump-calls-turkiye-very-smart-and-praises-erdogan-s-leadership
2023 0720 AA
“Trump lavishes praise on China’s Xi as
‘brilliant guy’ with ‘iron fist’— former US president praises Chinese president
as ‘smart, brilliant; leader with everything perfect’”
2018 0109 ABC News
“President Trump has called himself
smart six times before”
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/president-trump-called-smart-six-times-before/story?id=52209712
"My two greatest assets have been
mental stability and being, like, really smart," he tweeted.
In a subsequent tweet, he said how the
fact that he won his presidential bid on his first try "would qualify as
not smart, but genius....and a very stable genius at that!"
[Note 10]
2024 0806 《星島日報》
www.stheadline.com/travel/3370398/深圳俄貨集市福田新店直擊15大必買推介-新店限定食品日用品零食雪糕1起港人優惠最多平88
2024 0822 Reuters
“India surpasses China to become
Russia’s top oil buyer in July”
2023 0612 AlJazeera
“Pakistan gets first shipment of
Russian crude under discount deal”
wiki, Nord Stream 1
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nord_Stream_1
Nord Stream (German–English mixed
expression for "North Stream 1"; Russian: Северный поток, romanized:
Severny potok) is a pair of offshore natural gas pipelines in Europe that run
under the Baltic Sea from Russia to Germany.[1]
2024 0212 EurActiv
“Austria’s dependence on Russian gas
rises to 98%, two years after Ukraine war”
[Note 11]
2021 1028 Hamburg: Liaison Office China
漢堡與中國之間新的貨櫃貨運班列："上海號"中歐班列抵達漢堡港
從漢堡的姊妹城市上海出發，這條新的班列路線途徑哈薩克（阿拉山口）、白俄羅斯和波蘭（Małaszewicze），最終到達漢堡。 "上海號"中歐班列由上海東方絲路多式聯運有限公司負責營運。
漢堡市第一市長彼得·琛徹爾（Peter Tschentscher）認為這一新班列推動了漢堡和中國之間經貿關係的進一步深化。 「我很高興漢堡和上海之間的直達貨運班列'上海號'已首次投入使用。漢堡和上海成為友好城市已有35年。我們在貿易與經濟、科學與研究、教育與文化方面進行全面合作。
首發的"上海號"中歐班列滿載了50個40尺貨櫃貨物，其中包括服裝鞋帽、玻璃器皿、汽車配件、光伏技術、炊具、家具、燈具和其他消費品。該班列營運公司東方國際董事長童繼生預計約一個月後該列車將首次從漢堡返回上海。
[Note 12]
2024 0925 AlJazeera
“’I will prevent World War 3’, Trump
says”
https://www.aljazeera.com/program/newsfeed/2024/9/25/i-will-prevent-world-war-3-trump-says
[Note 13]
2024 1125 CNN News
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/11/25/politics/trump-tariffs-mexico-canada-china/index.html
President-elect Donald Trump on Monday
promised massive hikes in tariffs on goods coming from Mexico, Canada and China
starting on the first day of his administration, a policy that could sharply
increase costs for American businesses and consumers.
2024 1223 AP News
https://apnews.com/article/trump-panama-canal-turning-point-unity-97cba0d41f043dd9f156dc8355ee3f44
(AP) — Donald Trump suggested Sunday
that his new administration could try to regain control of the Panama Canal
that the United States “foolishly” ceded to its Central American ally,
contending that shippers are charged “ridiculous” fees to pass through the
vital transportation channel linking the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.
Wiki
Proposals for the US to purchase Greenland
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposals_for_the_United_States_to_purchase_Greenland
Since 1867, the United States has
considered, and made, several attempts to purchase the island of Greenland from
Denmark, as it did with the Danish West Indies in 1917. While Greenland remains
an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark, a 1951 treaty gives the
United States much control over its defense.
2024 1227 《信報》
www1.hkej.com/dailynews/international/article/3962796/特朗普「聖誕文告」又提擴領土
2024 1224 《信報》
www1.hkej.com/dailynews/international/article/3961455/特朗普覬覦格陵蘭+總理誓不賣
美國候任總統特朗普繼續在公開場合和社群平台揚言「收回」對巴拿馬運河主權，不讓其落入「壞人之手」，更稱「歡迎來到美國運河！」特朗普其後又在社群平台聲稱奪取歸丹麥管轄的格陵蘭（Greenland）控制權。
2024 1218 X: Elon Musk
“Paid propaganda!”
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1869138229511033338
“Wow, Turns out all those Reuters hit
pieces were funded by the Biden administration.”
2024 1221 X: Elon Musk
“AP stands for Associated Propaganda”
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1870203968695001417?mx=2
2024 1225 New York Post
“Elon Musk urges supporters not to
donate to Wikipeida after it spent $50M on DEI: “Wokepedia”
