我的《信報》文章(2025年9月3日A15頁)刊登後的改良加長版
〈論文二 -- 預測走向〉特朗普可使美國短暫變得強大
《特朗普玩弄國際層級政治 兩得兩失》
許劍昭
8月21日，BBC報道美歐貿易協議細節，稱美國是大贏家(增數百億美元稅收)，歐盟是輸家;並引述法國總理的嗟嘆：「這是黑暗的一天…」
[Note 1]
8月8日《紐約時報》披露，總統特朗普已秘密簽署行政命令，授權國防部對拉丁美洲販毒集團展開軍事行動。墨西哥及哥倫比亞領導人立即譴責華盛頓此舉侵犯別國主權。國務卿盧比奧四天後接受電台採訪時沒有否認此事，反指中美洲的政權縱容毒犯「每天都在毒害美國人民、破壞美國家庭、摧毀美國社區(wiping out American communities) 。 」
[Note 2]
上述只是特朗普政府思維的兩例。其共同點是不解決國內問題的根源，倒是利用美國在國際層級關係中處於頂層的優勢，掠奪低層級國家的利益來彌補損失，詆毀低層級國家的治理來掩蓋醜態。
受領土面積、人口規模、資源儲備、技術水準、領導智慧的影響，國際層級(hierarchy)關係早就存在。
在古希臘城邦政治中，雅典與斯巴達處於頂層，其他則不同程度地依附其領導。16至20世紀，弱國若非成為強國的殖民地(如印度1858-1947年受英國統治)或保護國(如埃及1914-22年是英國的保護國)，就是受欺負，例如一戰結束後，當時的民國政府只能眼巴巴看着列強把德國在中國的所謂青島租借權轉讓給日本而無能為力。
[Note 3]
能夠晉身較高層且長期保持頂層優勢的國家，雖然成因眾多，唯參考
「儒道墨法」的學說、
古希臘「泣哲」赫拉克利特（Heraclitus 約公元前500）
關於對立力量變化歸一的哲學、
德國哲學家尼采對「宏偉政治」(grossePolitik)的論述，
關鍵根底是文化修養。
[Note 4]
當一股民族文化無懼「天地不仁」的殘酷現實，
理智思維上有「悲劇意識」的培育、
情感體驗上有「悲劇觸覺」的陶冶，
平凡百姓多能勇於逆境自強，
菁英會不斷自我超越、創新價值，
而大眾自強涵養與菁英突破勇氣更相互推動，形成良性循環，
此文化修為當可把國勢置於上升軌道之中。
[Note 5]
歐洲自15世紀造紙與印刷技術普及後，倡議無懼痛苦與艱辛的「斯多葛主義」(Stoicism 始於公元前300 年的雅典)透過
荷蘭人利普修斯（Justus Lipsius 1547-1606）、
英國人彌爾頓（John Milton 1608-74）
及一眾知識分子的推廣，推崇「不經歷痛苦 就沒有收穫」
(No pains, no gains … Man’s fate is according to his
pains; Robert Herrick 1650年名詩)的態度，
促成了啟蒙時期、文藝復興的展開，
並孕育出持久的創新價值時代 —— 工業革命，
也造就了歐美諸國陸續登上國際關係的頂層。
[Note 6]
但二戰後部分國家的文化沉迷於感官刺激的所謂快樂，導致國力衰落，也在國際層級階梯下滑。
特朗普清楚知道，如果不能扭轉頹勢，美國遲早會被擠出頂層，
因此必須使美國再次偉大。其今年至今的層級政策至少有兩項成就、兩項過錯。
首項成就是鞏固了美國與第二三四梯隊附庸諸國的主從關係，也確立了美國高於其他弱小國家的超然地位。顯示他擁有違令者罰的隨意性威權，為增強美國政治及財務實力取得短期的成果。
[Note 7]
第二是為旗下的主從關係框架制定了新規則。透過設定
關稅稅率的任意性、
對他國自身預算案下達命令的權威性、
向第三國徵收供應武器予烏克蘭費用的諭旨性等等，
為「特朗普版本西方」制定新的運行模式。先例既已確立，未來上令下從的事宜就易辦。
[Note 8]
但這些短期成就無法彌補其過錯所造成的損失。
第一錯是延續美俄(二戰後兩個政治、經濟、軍事自主程度最高的白人政權)共享頂層的圖謀。特朗普希望透過美俄攜手
壟斷北極地區資源、
發展太空尖端科技、
規範國際貿易秩序，
讓美俄繼續領導全球治理、掌控關鍵原料。
但莫斯科已對華盛頓失去信任，也對這種共享頂層地位不感興趣，反而致力建構一個不受西方限制的歐亞板塊體系。錯估形勢的特朗普及本世紀的美國將會失去的，不僅是白人持續統治全球的夢想，還有全球南方對美國經已剩餘不多的信任、寄望。
[Note 9]
第二錯是以治標而非治本的措施，來修復美國處於頂層所必要但已逐漸薄弱的逆境自強文化。
儘管特朗普意識到國內的文化腐敗問題，包括
學生課堂知識水平不斷下降(例見芝加哥30校全體學生閱讀及數學不及格)、
毒品氾濫(自1999年以來，每年有超過10萬名公民因吸毒過量而死)、
國民的心理及身體健康狀況持續惡化(近五分之一的12-17歲少年
被診斷出患有精神疾病;預期壽命在2021年降至76.1歲，為1996年以來的最低水平)、
自殺率持續攀昇(2000至2020年間，每年每10萬人自殺人數從 10.4人增加到13.5人)、
犯罪率高(過度擁擠的監獄已接納不了新的輕罪犯)、
產業工人階級對道德現實及社會向上流動性低的不滿……
[Note 10]
但他只能交出治標的措施。例如
迫使國內外企業在美國開設工廠生產，而非提升「毅工精神」
(workmanship，詳見1898 年 Thorstein Veblen 的著作) ;
部署國民警衛隊在大城市充當警察，而非改革道德教育體制;
「讓美國再次健康」的綱領強調改善食品生產法規及醫療標準，而非鼓勵全民恆常運動、提高心理道德素質。
[Note 11]
美國二戰後以追求快樂為目標，效果卻是南轅北轍。
平凡百姓缺乏逆境自強的能耐，
自我超越、創新價值的菁英愈來愈少，
而頹廢的大眾涵養與貪婪的菁英意氣互動成惡性循環，
自然把國勢置於下降軌道之中，並最終失去國際政治頂層地位。
特朗普忽視了開國元勛之一的富蘭克林(一百美元鈔票人像) 1745年曾寫道:
「未蒙苦楚，利益不果」( there are no gains, without pains，
且於1758年其《致富之道》重述此言);
從弱國攫取利益，而不策勵國民吃苦，最後將失去一切。
[Note 12]
Notes
[Note 1]
2025 0821 BBC
“Who are the winners
and losers in US-EU trade deal?”
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c14g8gk8vdlo
Trump - winner
European solidarity - loser
After promising
new trade deals with dozens of countries, Trump has just secured the biggest of
them all.
It looks to most
commentators that the EU has given up more, with instant analysis by Capital
Economics suggesting a 0.5% knock to GDP.
There will also be tens of billions of
dollars pouring into US coffers in import taxes.
French Prime
Minister Francois Bayrou commented: "It is a dark day when an alliance of free peoples,
brought together to affirm their common values and to defend their common
interests, resigns itself to submission."
[Note 2]
2025 0808 Al Jazeera
“Trump signs order authorizing military
action against cartels: Reports ”
President Donald Trump has secretly
signed an order directing the military to take action against drug-smuggling
cartels and other criminal groups from Latin America, according to a report in
The New York Times.
…… in May, Trump confirmed that,
earlier this year, he offered to send US troops to help combat drug trafficking
in Mexico. For her part, Sheinbaum said she firmly rebuffed the idea.
“I told him, ‘No, President Trump, our
territory is inviolable, our sovereignty is inviolable, our sovereignty is not
for sale,’” she said at the time.
2025 0811 Colombia Reports
“Colombia rallies against possible US
military intervention in Venezuela”
https://colombiareports.com/colombia-rallies-against-possible-us-military-intervention-in-venezuela/
Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro
spoke out against a possible US attack on the neighboring country, Venezuela.
2025 0812
U.S. Department of State
Secretary of State Marco Rubio with Sid
Rosenberg of Sid and Friends in the Morning
Interview
Via Telephone August 12, 2025
It is a
narco-terrorist regime that’s empowered itself of Venezuelan territory.
And from there it extends down to the Mexican cartels, the gangs in Ecuador and
through Central America. But we’ve got to take this stuff
seriously. They are
flooding our country with poison every single day, destroying and ending
American lives, ripping up American families, wiping out American communities.
[Note 3]
Wiki, “British Raj”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Raj
The British Raj (/rɑːdʒ/ RAHJ; from
Hindustani rāj, 'reign', 'rule' or 'government')[11] was the colonial rule of
the British Crown on the Indian subcontinent,[12] lasting from 1858 to
1947.[13]
Wiki, “History of Egypt under the
British
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Egypt_under_the_British
The history of Egypt under the British
lasted from 1882, when it was occupied by British forces during the
Anglo-Egyptian War, until 18 June 1956, when the last British forces withdrew
in accordance with the Anglo-Egyptian evacuation agreement of 1954.
[Note 4]
Internet Encyclopedia of Philosophy
Heraclitus (fl. C500 BCE)
A Greek philosopher of the late 6th
century BCE, Heraclitus criticizes his predecessors and contemporaries for
their failure to see the unity in experience. He claims to announce an
everlasting Word (Logos) according to which all things are one, in some sense.
Opposites are necessary for life, but they are unified in a system of balanced
exchanges. The world itself consists of a law-like interchange of elements,
symbolized by fire. Thus the world is not to be identified with any particular substance,
but rather with an ongoing process governed by a law of change. The underlying
law of nature also manifests itself as a moral law for human beings.
Wiki, “Heraclitus”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heraclitus
Heraclitus (/ˌhɛrəˈklaɪtəs/; Ancient
Greek: Ἡράκλειτος Hērákleitos; fl. c. 500 BC) was an ancient Greek pre-Socratic
philosopher from the city of Ephesus, which was then part of the Persian
Empire. He exerts a wide influence on Western philosophy, both ancient and
modern, through the works of such authors as Plato, Aristotle, Georg Wilhelm
Friedrich Hegel, Friedrich Nietzsche, and Martin Heidegger.
…… he became known as "the weeping
philosopher" ……
The central ideas of Heraclitus's
philosophy are the unity of opposites and the concept of change. Heraclitus saw
harmony and justice in strife. He viewed the world as constantly in flux,
always "becoming" but never "being". He expressed this in
sayings like "Everything flows" (Greek: πάντα ῥεῖ, panta rhei) and
"No man ever steps in the same river twice". This insistence upon
change contrasts with that of the ancient philosopher Parmenides, who believed
in a reality of static "being".
Internet Encyclopedia of Philosophy
“Friedrich Nietzsche (1844-1900)
For more about grossePolitik , see “Hugo Drochon (2016), “Nietzsche’s Great
Politics”, Princeton University Press.
[Note 5]
Bai du 百科
天地不仁，以万物为刍狗
baike.baidu.com/item/天地不仁，以万物为刍狗/7183997
出自老子所著的《道德经》第五章的句子
悲劇意識
我的《信報》文章 2019年4月6日A14頁
許劍昭: 《院校收生考試與悲劇意識的培育》
https://www.hkej.com/dailynews/article?id=2104118
悲劇觸覺
我的《信報》文章 2025年8月6日A12頁
許劍昭:《吸毒及自殺年輕化 孩子抗壓能耐須加強》
www.hkej.com/dailynews/commentary/article/4157595/吸毒及自殺年輕化+孩子抗壓能耐須加強
[Note 6]
See details in:
Christopher Brooke (2012), “Philosophic Pride: Stoicism and Political
Thought from Lipsius to Rousseau”, Princeton University Press.
Andrew Shifflett (1998), “Stoicism, Politics and Literature in the Age
of Milton: war and peace reconciled”, Cambridge University Press.
Martin Dzelzainis (ed) Claire Gruzelier (transl.) ( 1991), “John Milton:
Political Writings”, Cambridge University Press.
Wiki, “No Pain, No gain”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No_pain,_no_gain
One of the earliest attestations of the phrase comes from the poet
Robert Herrick in his "Hesperides". In the 1650 edition, a two-line
poem was added:
NO PAINS, NO GAINS.
If little labour, little are our gains:
Man's fate is according to his pains.
— Hesperides 752.[18][19]
A version of the phrase was crafted by Benjamin Franklin, in his persona
of Poor Richard (1734), to illustrate the axiom "God helps those who help
themselves":
Wiki, “Robert Herrick (poet)”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Herrick_(poet)
[Note 7]
2025 0827 NBC News
“Trump hits India with punishing 50% tariffs for buying Russian oil”
2025 0722
Stanford University Department of History
“Is Trump’s Reciprocal Tariff Strategy Punishment?”
https://history.stanford.edu/news/trumps-reciprocal-tariff-strategy-punishment
[Note 8]
2025 0625 The Guardian
“Trump hails ‘big win’ as Nato states agree to raise defence spending to
5% of GDP”
2025 0805 NPR
“4 European countries agree to buy a combined $1 billion in U.S. weapons
for Ukraine”
https://www.npr.org/2025/08/05/g-s1-81084/europe-us-weapons-ukraine-russia-war
Trump came into office in January saying he opposed additional U.S.
military aid for Ukraine. But at a White House meeting in July with NATO
Secretary-General Mark Rutte, Trump said he supported NATO countries buying
U.S. weapons and then sending them on to Ukraine.
「特朗普版西方」
我的《信報》文章 2025年1月7日A14頁
www1.hkej.com/dailynews/commentary/article/3972257/「特朗普版西方」對撼「北約版西方」
[Note 9]
2025 0815 CBS News
“Here’s the transcript of what Putin and Trump said in Alaska”
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/transcript-of-what-putin-trump-said-in-alaska/
…… when the new administration came to power, bilateral trade started to
grow. It's still very symbolic. Still, we have a growth of 20%. As I've said,
we have a lot of dimensions for joint work. It is clear that the U.S. and Russian investment and business cooperation has
tremendous potential. Russia and the U.S. can offer each other so much in
trade, digital, high tech and in space exploration. We see that arctic
cooperation is also very possible, in our international context. For example,
between the far east of Russia and the West Coast of the U.S.
Overall, it's very important for our countries
to turn the page to go back to cooperation …… It's important that both sides are result-oriented
and we see that the president of the U.S. has a very clear idea of what he
would like to achieve. He sincerely cares about the prosperity of his nation.
歐亞板塊
CIDOB 11/2023
Author:
Francisco Olmos, Research Fellow, Foreign Policy Centre; Senior
Researcher post-Soviet space, Geopol21
“China in the heart of Eurasia”
https://www.cidob.org/en/publications/china-heart-eurasia
Eurasian Economic Union
https://www.eaeunion.org/?lang=en
2025 0627 XinHua News
“Putin calls EAEU one of the key centers of global development”
https://english.news.cn/20250627/838075ddcf0042a9be8d84fe480f6384/c.html
[Note 10]
我的《信報》文章(2023年3月15日A14頁)
《30校全體學生閱讀不及格 與 數字時代文盲》
https://www1.hkej.com/dailynews/article/id/3395281
2月20日《霍士新聞》(Fox News)報導，芝加哥地區多達
30所學校內，沒有一個學生在閱讀評估中能達到各自的年級水平。
同時，53所學校內，也沒有一個學生在數學評估中能達到各自的年級水平。
U.S. National Institute on Drug Abuse
“Drug Overdose Deaths: Facts and Figures”
https://nida.nih.gov/research-topics/trends-statistics/overdose-death-rates
U.S. National Library of Medicine
“America’s declining well-being, health, and life expectancy: not just a
White problem”
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6221922/
Mental Health America
“The state of Mental Health in America”
https://mhanational.org/the-state-of-mental-health-in-america/
50M experiencing a mental illness
In 2019-2020, 20.78% of adults were experiencing a mental illness.
15% with substance abuse disorders
The vast majority of individuals with a substance use disorder in the
U.S. are not receiving treatment. 15.35% of adults had a substance use disorder
in the past year. Of them, 93.5% did not receive any form of treatment.
1.5M youth with drug and alcohol disorders
2025 0605CDC
“Children’s Mental Health
https://www.cdc.gov/children-mental-health/data-research/index.html
Among US adolescents ages 12-17 in 2021-2023:3
20% reported symptoms of anxiety in the past two weeks.
18% reported symptoms of depression in the past two weeks.
CDC Suicide Prevention
“Suicide Data and Statistics”
https://www.cdc.gov/suicide/facts/data.html
Suicide rates increased 37% between 2000-2018 and decreased 5% between
2018-2020. However, rates returned to their peak in 2022.
U.S. Department of Justice Office
of Justice Programs
“Crisis in the Prisons — not enough room for all the criminals”
Wiki, “Prison overcrowding in the United States”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prison_overcrowding_in_the_United_States
Over the last 40 years, the number of persons held in prisons and jails
in the United States per capita has more than quadrupled, with the total
proportion of incarcerated people now surpassing 2.3 million.
Wiki, “Socioeconomic mobility in the United States”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socioeconomic_mobility_in_the_United_States
Several studies have found that inter-generational mobility is lower in
the US than in some European countries, in particular the Nordic
countries.[4][5] The US ranked 27th in the world in the 2020 Global Social
Mobility Index.[6]
Social mobility in the US has either remained unchanged or decreased
since the 1970s.[7][8][9][10][11]
[Note 11]
Oregon State University
Classical Sociological Theory and Foundations of American Sociology
“40. Thorstein Veblen, on Labor (1898)”
Veblen tries to understand how it is that we could have a collective
aversion to work when, as a species, we have always had a very strong “instinct
for workmanship.” He then contrasts sportsmanship (fighting) with workmanship,
locating the denigration of work in the development of a “predatory
culture.” As you read this passage and
follow Veblen’s argument, think about how it compares with Marx’s description
of the rise of capitalism and Weber’s explanation of the difference between
class and status societies.
2025 0826 CNN
“Following LA and DC, Trump wants to send the National Guard to other US
cities. Here’s how he can do it”
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/08/26/politics/trump-national-guard-us-cities
1988 1014 The Heritage Foundation
“Why Schools Fail: Reclaiming the Moral Dimension in Education”
https://www.heritage.org/education/report/why-schools-fail-reclaiming-the-moral-dimension-education
U.S. Department of Health and Human Services
“Make America Healthy Again”
https://www.hhs.gov/maha/index.html
6 in 10 Americans have at least one chronic disease
1 in 4 American children suffer from allergies
40% of Americans are diabetic or prediabetic
2025 0701 BBC
“Is RFK Jr’s divisive plan to Make America Healthy Again fearmongering
or revolutionary?”
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ceq7jx3dlj9o
His first target was food colourings, with a promise to phase out the
use of petroleum-based dyes by the end of 2026.
Chemicals, with names like 'Green No. 3' and 'Red No. 40', have been
linked to hyperactivity and behavioural issues in children, and cancer in some
animal studies.
"What's happening in this administration is really
interesting," says Vani Hari, a food blogger and former Democrat who is
now an influential voice in the Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) movement.
"MAHA is all about how do we get people off processed food, and one way to
do that is to regulate the chemicals companies use."
[Note 12]
U.S. Currency Education Program
https://www.uscurrency.gov/denominations/100
The Franklin Institute
Benjamin Franklin’s Famous Quotes
https://fi.edu/en/science-and-education/benjamin-franklin/famous-quotes
13. “No
gains without pains.”
- Poor Richard’s Almanack, 1745
Benjamin Franklin, “The Way to Wealth”
https://minio.la.utexas.edu/webeditor-files/coretexts/pdf/175820franklin20wealth.pdf
“ …… Industry need not wish, as Poor Richard says, and he
that lives upon hope will die fasting. There are no
gains, without pains, then help hands ,……”
Source: The Works of Benjamin Franklin. Edited by Jared Sparks. Vol. 2. (Boston, 1836), 2:92-103. Online: American Literature Research and Analysis Website, Florida Gulf Coast University http://itech.fgcu.edu/faculty/wohlpart/alra/franklin.htm
