我的《信報》文章(2020年
4月15日A20頁) 足本
《憂股息 懼停薪 疫後積儲意識
與 另類復甦》
突然，多類工商業務停頓，數以月計，營運收入劇減。不虞，穩健的金融機構取消股息安排，還說年內不派息。
各階層的人，不論是依靠股息收入生活的投資者或退休人士、企業高管、中小店主、基層員工，或多或少受到負面影響(醫藥及相關行業除外) 。
各國政府分別推出大刀闊斧的方案，於逐步放鬆閉關、封城措施後，扶助企業、刺激消費，盡快促成經濟復甦。例如3月17日特朗普總統提出1萬億美元方案，國會要求增至2萬億，最後達成了2.2萬億的協議; 3月31日特朗普再提出增加2萬億興建基礎設施;4月9日聯儲局宣布動用2.3萬億支持地方政府和中小型企業…
[Note 1]
但經歷過這次劇痛的教訓，會有一些人，有一類人，會學懂居安思危、積穀防饑的必要性:須堅持儲蓄，方能渡過任何意想不到的(近乎)零收入的艱困日子。
當大批有收入的消費者(及生產者)提高儲蓄率(propensity to save)，有理論認為，這種傾向將削弱擴張性政策的「乘數效應」，不利經濟復甦。本文並非財經分析，故留待他人研究。這裏討論的是關於另一類復甦，分兩點敘述。
首先是對消費態度的反省。
3月27日，歐盟央行發布通告(ECB/2020/19) ，建議私營銀行暫停支付股息。「…將總計300億歐元的最高質量資本保留在系統中…幫助企業及家庭應對(navigate)全球流行病帶來的前所未有的挑戰…」
[Note 2]
須知道，歐洲不如大中華地區般擁有豐厚外匯儲備，也不能像美國般可隨意畫「圈」成錢。諸國可做的，就是謹慎地善用有限的資源(4月9日歐元區通過總值5000億歐元的救市計劃，另加德國7500億、意大利4000億、西班牙2000億、法國450億、荷蘭220億…合計約2.5萬億美元，只有前述三項美國提案的38%，但歐盟的GDP規模是美國的91％，見世界銀行2018年數據）;並盡力儲存歐洲私營部門的盈餘且引導其善用。
[Note 3]
也許有人批評:禁止私營銀行向股東支付股息，既褻瀆自由經濟的信條，亦違反資本主義私有產權的精義。
此中根本之問題是:自由主義有多可信?
早在2016年6月，國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)就發布了一份研究報告(Vol.53,
No.2) ，論證及申明IMF在過去30年，所倡議的「新自由主義」政策是失敗的，它未能為現代人類社會帶來金融穩定，也沒法改善貧富懸殊，認為必須改弦易轍。被嚇呆了的美國期刊Foreign
Policy，指IMF的這個說法「丟下政治重磅炸彈(bombshell)」，相當於「教皇說沒有上帝」!而西方大眾媒體，除了個別金融期刊如《福布斯》，當然享用新聞自由，不報導這挑戰西方價值的研究!
[Note 4]
自二戰以來，西方的主流自由經濟政策基礎之一，是「節儉阻礙經濟增長」的信念(Paradox of Thrift，詳見1714年Bernard Mandeville的《蜜蜂的寓言》) 。維也納大學著名經濟學教授穆勒(Dennis C. Mueller 1941- ) ，認為現時流行之「貪婪是好的」及「私人惡習及貪婪(private vice and avarice)通過刺激經濟活動會帶來公共利益」的觀念乃源於此。
在個人層面，此觀念挑動消費者離棄祖傳「快樂是實踐美德(virtue) 後的獎勵」之古訓，轉向不惜任何手段追求快樂(pursuit of
happiness) 。最突出的特徵是及時行樂、拒絕等待、想做就做、活在當下(例如不慢慢地省錢儲蓄，只要覺得某處很有趣，便不惜立刻借錢也要出國旅行) 。
[Note 5]
在社會層面，任何政策若有可能阻礙個人追求即時、片刻的快樂，會被認為是錯誤;一些公共知識分子甚至認為快樂是天生的權利。這種「唯我主義」(Solipsism)迫使政府對「任意」(以自由之名包裝) 的行為採取寬容、姑息的態度(詳見拙文《從鼠患看管治之難》，刊2019年6月15日) 。
《從鼠患看管治之難》
再加上「以消費帶動的增長才是健康的經濟增長」之說盛行，西方政府壓抑用於基礎設施的支出、縱容企業獎賞瘋狂數額的花紅酬金、對變本加厲的浪費性消費視而不見。IMF有識之士對過去30年自由政策的否定，就是基於前兩項錯誤的檢討 。
倘若儲蓄防患、自制克己的意識，能在疫後的歐亞地區重拾發展步伐，一種另類的復甦將會出現。
第二點是重視實用價值。
病毒廣泛傳播期間，平常生活實用品被搶購一空，實用價值較低的貨品和服務乏人問津。例如以鬱金香蜚聲國際的荷蘭某花卉出口公司，表示今季已失去90％的收入。
當然，疫後市場在一定程度上會恢復先前的面貌，有些人甚至更加醉生夢死，只圖即時的歡愉。但總會有某類人，某些族群，甚至一代人，選擇多儲一點錢，不再那麼熱衷於購買沒有或很少實用價值的物品、服務。生態經濟學家 Simon Mair 推斷，疫後大量「無意義的工作」(pointless jobs) 會消失。
[Note 6]
一眾國家將減少對全球供應鏈的依賴，以確保國內具有生產基本必需品的最低自顧能力。政府和公共機構除了增加財務儲備，還會囤積包括穀物、醫護裝備在內的實用品。
有人聲稱他們正與一個隱形敵人作戰 (法國總統馬克龍3月16日講話)。科學知識告訴我們，病毒對人類沒有半點敵意，只是想不斷繁殖;而為此目的，它不斷適應、不斷變異、不斷改善。換言之，人類僅與病毒、各種生物，以至大自然諸種力量競爭、比拼，唯沒有終點。
一項被忽略的發展，是非洲正面臨新一波蝗災，規模約是2019年的20倍，數百萬人陷於饑荒邊緣。農民指蝗災比肺炎疫情更具毀滅性。
[Note 7]
蝗災、鼠患、新型瘟疫、乾旱、暴風、洪水可能一浪接一浪出現。也許有些擅長抱怨和譴責的人，會繼續申訴他們擁有這樣那樣的自由(任意) 、人權，坐着等待蔭庇(遺憾的是香港有很多這種人)。
但有遠見的人、族群，會配置(configure)新形式的疫後復甦;加強積儲意識、優化備用資源、改良適應能耐，以穿越未知的水域(uncharted waters) ，迎風破浪 (a concept about human life's nature from Nietzsche)。
Notes for reference
[Note 1]
Bloomberg,
Mar 18, 2020.
Aljazeera,
Mar 28, 2020
Reuters,
March 31, 2020.
Reuters,
Apr 9, 2020.
[Note 2]
European
Central Bank, Mar 27, 2020.
BRUSSELS, 27 March 2020 – The European
Banking Federation takes note of the European Central Bank’s recommendation on
banks dividend distributions: banks should not pay dividends for the financial years 2019
and 2020 until at least 1 October 2020, in order to allow a total of 30 billion
euro of additional capital of the highest quality to be kept within the system.
The EBF shares the ECB‘s view of the
importance of the role of banks to support to businesses and households during
the Covid-19 pandemic. “Under these difficult circumstances, banks, more than
ever, stand with their customers. Exceptional times call for exceptional
measures. We hope that the economic conditions will have normalized by October.
By then European banks boards should be able to re-assess their dividend and
share buy-back strategy”, says Jean-Pierre Mustier, President of the EBF.
As representative of the European banking
sector the EBF had already expressed its support and commitment to helping
businesses and households navigate the unprecedented challenges posed by the
global pandemic. In a letter to the ECB Supervisory Board on Thursday, the EBF
stressed the importance as well of taking into account the expectations of
shareholders and the investors perception of the strength of the European
banking sector.
[Note 3]
World Bank, GDP: EU, US, China
2018 data
RFI,
“EU agrees €500 billion coronavirus rescue package, but ECB says €1.5tr
needed”, Apr 10, 2020.
Reuters,
“Germany launches 750 billion euro package to fight coronavirus”, Mar 24, 2020.
Politico,
“France injects billions into stimulus plan amid coronavirus chaos: the €45B
package will mainly take the form of reduced social security contributions for
businesses”, Mar 17, 2020.
Politico,
“Italy adopts €400B liquidity plan amid coronavirus crisis”, Apr 6, 2020.
Politico,
“Spain unveils €200B package to combat virus downturn”, Mar 17, 2020.
Reuters,
“Netherlands to give up to $22 billion in emergency coronavirus aid to
business”, Mar 18, 2020.
AMSTERDAM (Reuters) - The Netherlands will
spend up to 20 billion euros ($22
billion) in emergency financial assistance for businesses that have run into
trouble due to the coronavirus pandemic, Finance Minister Wopke Hoekstra said
on Tuesday.
Reuters,
“Denmark plans $6 billion aid package for small business”, Mar 18, 2020.
[Note 4]
IMF, “Neoliberalism: Oversold?”, in Finance
Development June 2016, Vol. 53, No.2.
Foreign
Policy, “The IMF confronts its N-word”, July 6, 2016.
The research department
of the International Monetary Fund dropped a political bombshell last month. The furor was set off by the
publication of an article — “Neoliberalism:
Oversold?” — that sparked a near-panic among advocates of free
market policies and celebrations among their critics. The piece concluded that,
over the past 30 years, the proponents of the economic philosophy known as
“neoliberalism” have been systematically overselling the benefits of the two
planks at its heart — namely, fiscal austerity during economic slowdowns and
the deregulation of financial markets.
This is a huge concession
for an institution long known for its ideological self-assuredness.
Essentially, the article
contends that these two policies, which the IMF has long championed, are of
questionable utility. It finds that they “have not delivered” the higher economic
growth rates that were promised and may have even done more harm than good.
Additionally, according to the article, both fiscal austerity and increased
financial openness have often exacerbated economic inequality, which itself
could become a drag on future economic growth rates. In other words, the
venerable institution had essentially everything wrong — at least as far as
these two key tenets of neoliberalism go.
Most strikingly, the
article infers that three policy prescriptions long advocated by the IMF’s
critics — regulation of some capital flows, Keynesian fiscal stimulus policies,
and effective economic redistribution — all have more merit than the IMF has
long contended. As Ben Norton wrote in Salon,
these conclusions amount to heresy: “It is somewhat like the
Pope declaring that there is no God; it is a volte-face on almost everything that the IMF has ever stood
for.”
[Note 5]
Paradox
of Thrift
zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/丹尼斯·穆勒
See
p.173-5 and p.184 in
Dennis
C. Mueller (2009), “Reason, Religion, and Democracy”, Cambridge: Cambridge
University Press.
[Note 6]
Apr
12, 2020.
https://www.fr24news.com/a/2020/04/where-did-140-million-dutch-tulips-go-crushed-by-coronavirus.html
Jan de Boer, managing director and owner of
Barendsen, a global flower export company based in the Dutch village of
Aalsmeer, said that he has so far lost 90% of his seasonal income. He usually has 60 full-time employees at this time of year,
and now, he says, works for only six people.
The
Conversation, Simon Mair, “What will the world be like after coronavirus? Four
possible futures”, Mar 30, 2020.
Pointless jobs
The fact that so many people work pointless
jobs is partly why we are
so ill prepared to respond to COVID-19. The pandemic is highlighting that many
jobs are not essential, yet we lack sufficient key workers to respond when
things go bad.
[Note 7]
2020年4月11日
rfi.fr/tw/生態/20200411-非洲蝗蟲又來了-遠比新冠病毒更可怕
非洲正面臨新一波蝗災，規模約是前一波的20倍，部分東非地區已經淪陷，恐陷數百萬人於饑荒。有農民聲稱，蝗災比武漢肺炎疫情更具毀滅性。
