Thursday, April 16, 2020

憂股息 懼停薪 疫後積儲意識 與 另類復甦


我的信報文章(2020 415A20) 足本
憂股息  懼停薪  疫後積儲意識 另類復甦



突然多類工商業務停頓數以月計營運收入劇減不虞穩健的金融機構取消股息安排不派息

各階層的人不論是依靠股息收入生活的投資者或退休人士企業高管中小店主基層員工或多或少受到負面影響(醫藥及相關行業除外)

國政府分別推出大刀闊斧的方案,於放鬆閉關封城措施扶助企業刺激消費盡快促成經濟復甦例如317日特朗普總統提出1萬億美元方案,國會要求增至2萬億,最後達成了2.2萬億的協議; 331日特朗普再提出增加2萬億興建基礎設施;49日聯儲局宣布動用2.3萬億支持地方政府和中小型企業
[Note 1]

但經過這次劇痛的教訓會有一些人有一類人會學懂居安思危積穀防饑的必要性:須堅持儲蓄,方能渡過任何意想不到的(近乎)零收入的艱困日子

當大批有收入的消費者()提高儲蓄率(propensity to save),有理論認為,這種傾向將削弱擴張性政策的乘數效應不利經濟復甦非財分析故留待他人研究這裏討論的是關於另一類復甦分兩點

首先是對消費態度反省

327歐盟央行發布通告(ECB/2020/19) 建議私營銀行暫停支付股息將總計300億歐元的最高質量資本保留在系統中幫助企業家庭應對(navigate)全球流行病帶來的前所未有的挑戰
[Note 2]

須知道,歐洲不如大中華地區般擁有豐厚外匯儲備也不像美國般可隨意畫」成諸國可做的,就是謹慎地善用有限的資源(49歐元區通過總5000億歐元的救市計劃另加德國7500意大利4000西班牙2000法國450荷蘭220合計約2.5萬億美元,只有前述三項美國提案38%但歐盟的GDP規模是美國的91見世界銀行2018年數據);盡力歐洲私營部門的盈餘引導其善用。
[Note 3]

也許有人批評:禁止私銀行向股東支付股息,既褻瀆自由經濟的信條,亦違反資本主義私有權的精

此中根本問題是:自由主義有多可信?

早在20166月,國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)就發布了一份研究報告(Vol.53, No.2) 論證申明IMF在過去30倡議新自由主義政策是失敗的它未能為現代人類社會帶來金融穩定,也沒法改善貧富懸殊,認為必須改弦易轍被嚇了的美國期刊Foreign PolicyIMF的這個丟下政治重磅炸彈(bombshell)相當於教皇沒有上帝!西方大眾媒體,除了個別金融期刊如《福布斯》,當然享用新聞自由,不報導這挑戰西方價的研究!
[Note 4]

自二戰以來西方主流自由經濟政策基礎之一節儉阻礙經濟增長的信(Paradox of Thrift詳見1714Bernard Mandeville的《蜜蜂的寓言》) 也納大學著名經濟學教授穆勒(Dennis C. Mueller 1941- ) ,認為現時流行貪婪是好的私人惡習貪婪(private vice and avarice)通過刺激經濟活動會帶來公共利益觀念源於

在個人層面此觀念挑動消費者離棄祖傳快樂是實踐美德(virtue) 後的獎勵之古轉向不惜任何手段追求快樂(pursuit of happiness) 最突出的特是及時行樂等待想做就做活在當下(例如不慢慢地省錢儲蓄只要覺得某處很有趣便不惜立刻借錢也要出國旅行)
[Note 5]

在社會層面任何政策有可能阻礙個人追求即時片刻的快樂,會被認為是錯誤;一些公共知識分子甚至認為快樂是天生的權利這種「唯我主義(Solipsism)迫使政府對任意(以自由名包裝) 的行為採取寬容姑息的態度(詳見拙文從鼠患看管治2019615)

從鼠患看管治

再加上以消費帶動的增長才是健康的經濟增長盛行西方政府壓抑用於基礎設施支出縱容企業獎賞瘋狂數額的花紅酬金變本加厲的浪費性消費視而不IMF有識對過去30年自由政策否定就是基於前兩項錯誤的檢討

倘若儲蓄防患自制克己意識能在疫後歐亞地區重拾發展一種另類的復甦將會出現

第二點是重視實用價

病毒廣泛傳播期間平常生活實用品被搶購一空實用價較低的貨品和服務乏人問津。例如以鬱金香蜚聲國際的荷蘭某花卉出口公司表示今季已失去90%的收入。

當然疫後市場在一定程度上會恢復先前的面貌有些人甚至更加醉生夢死只圖即時的歡愉但總會有某類人,某些族群甚至一代人,選擇多儲一點錢,不再那麼熱衷於購買沒有或很少實用價的物品服務生態經濟學家 Simon Mair 推斷疫後大量無意義的工作(pointless jobs) 會消失
[Note 6]

國家將減少對全球供應鏈的依賴,以確保國具有生基本必需品的最低自顧能力政府和公共機構除了增加財務儲備,還會囤積包括穀物醫護裝備在

有人聲稱他們正與一個隱形敵人作戰 (法國總統馬克龍316日講話)科學知識告訴我們,病毒對人類沒有半點敵意只是想不斷繁殖;目的,它不斷適應不斷變異不斷改善人類僅與病毒、各種生物以至大自然諸種力量競爭比拼,唯沒有終點

一項被忽略的發展是非洲正面臨新一波蝗災,規模約是2019年的20倍,數百萬人陷於饑荒邊。農民指蝗災比肺炎疫情更具毀滅性。
[Note 7]

蝗災鼠患新型瘟疫乾旱暴風洪水可能一浪接一浪出現也許有些擅長抱怨和譴責的人會繼續申訴他們擁有這樣那樣的自由(任意) 人權,坐等待蔭庇(遺憾的是香港有很多這種人)

但有遠見的人族群會配置(configure)新形式的疫後復甦;加強積儲意識、優化備用資源改良適應能耐以穿越未知的水域(uncharted waters) 迎風破浪 (a concept about human life's nature from Nietzsche)


Notes for reference

[Note 1]
Bloomberg, Mar 18, 2020.

Aljazeera, Mar 28, 2020

Reuters, March 31, 2020.

Reuters, Apr 9, 2020.

[Note 2]
European Central Bank, Mar 27, 2020.

BRUSSELS, 27 March 2020 – The European Banking Federation takes note of the European Central Bank’s recommendation on banks dividend distributions: banks should not pay dividends for the financial years 2019 and 2020 until at least 1 October 2020, in order to allow a total of 30 billion euro of additional capital of the highest quality to be kept within the system.
The EBF shares the ECB‘s view of the importance of the role of banks to support to businesses and households during the Covid-19 pandemic. “Under these difficult circumstances, banks, more than ever, stand with their customers. Exceptional times call for exceptional measures. We hope that the economic conditions will have normalized by October. By then European banks boards should be able to re-assess their dividend and share buy-back strategy”,  says Jean-Pierre Mustier, President of the EBF.
As representative of the European banking sector the EBF had already expressed its support and commitment to helping businesses and households navigate the unprecedented challenges posed by the global pandemic. In a letter to the ECB Supervisory Board on Thursday, the EBF stressed the importance as well of taking into account the expectations of shareholders and the investors perception of the strength of the European banking sector.

[Note 3]
World Bank, GDP: EU, US, China 2018 data

RFI, “EU agrees €500 billion coronavirus rescue package, but ECB says €1.5tr needed”, Apr 10, 2020.

Reuters, “Germany launches 750 billion euro package to fight coronavirus”, Mar 24, 2020.

Politico, “France injects billions into stimulus plan amid coronavirus chaos: the €45B package will mainly take the form of reduced social security contributions for businesses”, Mar 17, 2020.

Politico, “Italy adopts €400B liquidity plan amid coronavirus crisis”, Apr 6, 2020.

Politico, “Spain unveils €200B package to combat virus downturn”, Mar 17, 2020.

Reuters, “Netherlands to give up to $22 billion in emergency coronavirus aid to business”, Mar 18, 2020.
AMSTERDAM (Reuters) - The Netherlands will spend up to 20 billion euros ($22 billion) in emergency financial assistance for businesses that have run into trouble due to the coronavirus pandemic, Finance Minister Wopke Hoekstra said on Tuesday.

Reuters, “Denmark plans $6 billion aid package for small business”, Mar 18, 2020.

[Note 4]
IMF, “Neoliberalism: Oversold?”, in Finance Development June 2016, Vol. 53, No.2.

Foreign Policy, “The IMF confronts its N-word”, July 6, 2016.
The research department of the International Monetary Fund dropped a political bombshell last month. The furor was set off by the publication of an article — “Neoliberalism: Oversold?” — that sparked a near-panic among advocates of free market policies and celebrations among their critics. The piece concluded that, over the past 30 years, the proponents of the economic philosophy known as “neoliberalism” have been systematically overselling the benefits of the two planks at its heart — namely, fiscal austerity during economic slowdowns and the deregulation of financial markets.
This is a huge concession for an institution long known for its ideological self-assuredness.
 Essentially, the article contends that these two policies, which the IMF has long championed, are of questionable utility. It finds that they “have not delivered” the higher economic growth rates that were promised and may have even done more harm than good. Additionally, according to the article, both fiscal austerity and increased financial openness have often exacerbated economic inequality, which itself could become a drag on future economic growth rates. In other words, the venerable institution had essentially everything wrong — at least as far as these two key tenets of neoliberalism go.
Most strikingly, the article infers that three policy prescriptions long advocated by the IMF’s critics — regulation of some capital flows, Keynesian fiscal stimulus policies, and effective economic redistribution — all have more merit than the IMF has long contended. As Ben Norton wrote in Salon, these conclusions amount to heresy: “It is somewhat like the Pope declaring that there is no God; it is a volte-face on almost everything that the IMF has ever stood for.”

[Note 5]
Paradox of Thrift


zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/丹尼斯·穆勒

See p.173-5 and p.184 in
Dennis C. Mueller (2009), “Reason, Religion, and Democracy”, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

[Note 6]
Apr 12, 2020.
Jan de Boer, managing director and owner of Barendsen, a global flower export company based in the Dutch village of Aalsmeer, said that he has so far lost 90% of his seasonal income. He usually has 60 full-time employees at this time of year, and now, he says, works for only six people. 

The Conversation, Simon Mair, “What will the world be like after coronavirus? Four possible futures”, Mar 30, 2020.
Pointless jobs
The fact that so many people work pointless jobs is partly why we are so ill prepared to respond to COVID-19. The pandemic is highlighting that many jobs are not essential, yet we lack sufficient key workers to respond when things go bad.

[Note 7]
2020411
rfi.fr/tw/生態/20200411-非洲蝗蟲又來了-遠比新冠病毒更可怕
非洲正面臨新一波蝗災,規模約是前一波的20,部分東非地區已經淪陷,恐陷數百萬人於饑荒。有農民聲稱,蝗災比武漢肺炎疫情更具毀滅性。