我的《信報》文章(2022年6月8日A16頁)
刊登後的改良(加長367字數)版
《全球化的「合久必分」小段落 與「毅工精神」》
https://www1.hkej.com/dailynews/article/id/3155569
許劍昭
「巨無霸指數」這個被廣泛視為全球化標誌之一的參考值，快將失去其環球的完整性。5月16日〈麥當勞〉宣布將永久退出俄羅斯，結束其始自1990年1月31日在莫斯科開展的業務。而完成出售交易後，這些餐廳不可再使用相同的品牌名稱。
[Note 1]
古代四大文明形成後，全球化斷斷續續、進進退退地發展。既有阿拉伯數字及英語全球化、絲綢之路、殖民傳教，亦有「門羅主義」、德川鎖國、韓戰禁運。
[Note 2]
但全球化既不會達到「單極」(即人類只有單一個環球文明)的局面，亦停不下來。也許最現實的形容詞是引用《三國演義》名言：「話說天下大勢，分久必合，合久必分。」
如果說冷戰結束是「分久必合」的轉折點，那麼烏克蘭危機則承載我們，進入一個跌跌撞撞的「合久必分」時期。
5月19日，〈全球化智庫〉（CCG）發表研究報告《烏克蘭危機不會終結全球化》，以數據作論證，反駁一些西方謂全球化已死的分析，指出放緩中的資金及貨物的跨區域流動不會終止，也不可能終止。
[Note 3]
本文嘗試略作補充，闡釋造成分化的三股動力及其影響的局限。
亨廷頓(Samuel P. Huntington)的劃時代《文明衝突論》，初現於1992 年的一次演講，指出三種文明能夠削弱西方的領導，分別是俄羅斯、大中華、伊斯蘭(詳見2011年印刷版第七章) 。
[Note 4]
他強調，美國國家安全在文化上由西方文明遺產定義，在政治上則由「美國信條原則」(principles of the American Creed, 見305頁) 定義;且提出眾多策略作捍衛美國利益之用。
諸種敵對上述三種文明的具體行動，形成三股阻礙全球化的分隔力量。
3月2日，〈國際殘奧委會〉仍向媒體表明，不排除俄羅斯和白俄運動員參加快將開幕的〈北京2022年殘奧會〉;但翌日3月3日，在政治壓力下改變，宣布該兩國的運動員被禁止參賽。
[Note 5]
5月22日，〈達沃斯〉(Davos) 決定不邀請任何俄羅斯人參加今年的〈世界經濟論壇〉。軍事衝突、經濟制裁、歌舞表演及體育比賽等文化抵制，並非突然湧現，而是不斷更新的行動列表上的選項。
[Note 6]
三十年前，亨廷頓早已清楚指出:
烏克蘭是一個「有兩種不同文化的分裂國家」(a cleft country with two distinct cultures, 165 頁)，
是「斷層線戰爭」(fault line war, 252 頁)的沃土。
其他可供操弄的區域包括「少些中國」(lesser Chinas)：台灣、香港、新加坡（127頁）及穆斯林的蘇丹、科索沃…（137-8頁）。
* * * 加兩段
觸覺敏銳的〈世界猶太人大會〉(World Jewish Congress) ，在 2010 年代初，已經發現烏克蘭民族主義者，利用納粹口號、標語宣揚反俄思想。2013年8月，正式向〈烏克蘭東正教教會〉發出函件要求關切，嚴正指出這些烏克蘭民兵組織，源自參與納粹德國「武裝黨衛軍加利西亞師」(Galician division of the Waffen SS)攻擊蘇聯的烏克蘭人。
這封信引起了美國左翼智庫的注意，2014年3月4日，於《外交政策焦點》(Foreign Policy In Focus)公佈調查結果。揭露美國駐烏克蘭大使館參與利用該納粹組織的官方政黨，推翻當時的親俄總統，唯(根據一段電話錄音)不允許其成員加入新政府內閣。事後證明當時的行動，為今天的烏克蘭斷層線戰爭埋下伏線。
[Note 7]
西方此刻跟俄羅斯在多方面正式決裂的同時，對中國大陸及港澳、部分伊斯蘭國家進行的挖溝築牆(查封〈孔子學院〉)、另起爐灶(建〈印太經濟框架〉)，眾皆耳熟能詳，不贅。
[Note 8]
但至少有兩個明顯的現象反映，這些分化工程只會減緩，卻不能剎停全球化的步伐。
首先，烏克蘭危機並未阻礙這三個文明之間的往還。除了中俄合作步伐大體上保持正常，沙地阿拉伯也推開政治壓力，支持俄羅斯保留在「石油輸出國組織+」(OPEC+)中的地位。
[Note 9]
5月30日，倫敦YouGov發表一項在14個中東及北非國家街頭訪問7,835人的民調結果，顯示24% 的受訪者將烏克蘭危機歸咎於北約，13% 於美國，16% 於俄羅斯。分析員認為這符合當前阿拉伯人不信任西方的趨勢。
[Note 10]
另一現象是，烏克蘭危機並未阻礙這三個文明與其他第五方國家合作的發展。最明顯的例子是印度無視壓力，持續向俄羅斯購買原油，從去年全年進口96 萬桶，倍增到今年前五個月的 3,400 萬桶。
[Note 11]
此外，5月26日，金磚國家教育部長會議按原有計劃舉行; 而沙地阿拉伯 阿根廷表明有意加入「金磚組織」。更令人高興的是，以色列與伊斯蘭國家的文化交流日趨頻繁，例如5月初，一個美籍巴基斯坦裔穆斯林 14 人代表團破天荒訪問以色列(巴基斯坦與以色列尚未建交) 。
[Note 12]
促使全球化「合久必分」僅僅是短暫的小段落，且受限於個別區域的原因很多(例如歐美的所謂道德號召力急劇下滑)。其中一個基礎性因素是
西方經濟體制日趨「休閒消費」模式，
而其他發展中經濟體仍然維持「毅工產製」模式;
此差異導致前者不可避免地依賴後者，而發展中經濟體彼此之間的互補亦不會被前者打斷。
「制度經濟學」鼻祖凡勃倫(Thorstein Veblen) 於1898 年發表一篇創見性文章，通過比較
「體育精神」(sportsmanship) 和
「毅工精神」(workmanship，有直譯作「工作本能」但失其原意)，
解釋人類如何進化到現代。
[Note 13]
凡勃倫開宗明義指出，在沒有任何工具的情況下，人類於大自然中乃弱勢動物。但某一天，我們的祖先想到如何使用天然物料來製造各種工具(參考「石器時代」記錄);從此，他們屢敗屢試、精益求精。
通過勤勞毅工、敬業樂業以達到特定目的的習慣，漸漸常規化成為人類經濟制度的一部分。但由於諸類原因，許多人壓抑了這種想辦妥一件事、做好一份工的本能，變得「好逸惡勞」。
凡勃倫鄭重指出，把人變成「惡勞」的諸類原因(工時過長、工資太少屬另一回事)當中，禍患經濟最劣的是
標榜毋須工作賺錢過活為高人一等的優越，
並低貶、鄙視勞動工作為一種「厭煩」(irksomeness) 。
這種思想在「激進個人主義」、「自由(任意) 主義」、「唯我自我中心」的推動下，經過百年的廣泛傳播，終於導致近年在西方出現的「大辭職潮」。此外，比利時、英國現正試驗「四天工作週」，法國、德國也計劃效仿。
[Note 14]
香港，內地也初步受影響，即所謂的「hea」、「躺平」;但尚未動搖中華勤勞文化的文明根基。
[Note 15]
在無法全自產、全自動化的情況下，那些沉迷於休閒和消費終端產品的地區，將不可避免地必須保持與毅工產製地區密切的貿易、往來。短暫的「合久必分」小段落興奮過後，很快就會回到「分久必合」。
但凡勃倫也同時警告說，好逸惡勞的群體，會因為自驕自大而變得好戰，企圖用戰事(warfare)維持高人一等的優越。
Notes for reference
[Note 1]
Wiki Big Mac Index
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Mac_Index
2022 0517
std.stheadline.com/daily/article/2462925/日報-國際-麥當勞悉售俄850餐廳
（星島日報報道）美國連鎖快餐業巨擘麥當勞三月關閉俄羅斯餐廳後，周一(5月16日)宣布將出售當地業務，即賣出全部八百五十家餐廳，結束三十多年營運。
[Note 2]
Wiki Monroe Doctrine
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monroe_Doctrine
zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/门罗主义
Wiki Sakoku (locked country)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sakoku
zh.wikipedia.org/zh-hk/锁国_(日本)
[Note 3]
2022 0519
CCG report:
The Ukraine Crisis isn’t the end of
Globalization
烏克蘭危機不會終結全球化
http://www.ccg.org.cn/archives/69612
wiki CCG
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Center_for_China_and_Globalization
zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/全球化智库
[Note 4]
Wiki
Clash of Civilizations
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clash_of_Civilizations
The Clash of Civilizations is a thesis
that people's cultural and religious identities will be the primary source of
conflict in the post–Cold War world.[1][2][3][4][5] The American political
scientist Samuel P. Huntington argued that future wars would be fought not between
countries, but between cultures.[1][6] It was proposed
in a 1992 lecture at the American Enterprise Institute, which was then
developed in a 1993 Foreign Affairs article titled "The Clash of
Civilizations?",[7] in response to his former student Francis Fukuyama's
1992 book, The End of History and the Last Man. Huntington later expanded his
thesis in a 1996 book The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World
Order.
Book
The Clash of Civilizations and the
Remaking of World Order Paperback – August 2, 2011
by Samuel P. Huntington
https://www.amazon.com/Clash-Civilizations-Remaking-World-Order/dp/1451628978
[Note 5]
2022 0302
The International Paralympic Committee confirmed today that it will not exclude athletes from Russia and Belarus from the
upcoming Games in Beijing, choosing not to follow the lead of other
international sports organizations that have enacted such bans in response to
the invasion of Ukraine.
2022 0303
https://olympics.nbcsports.com/2022/03/03/russia-belarus-paralympics-ban/
Russian and
Belarusian athletes were barred from the Paralympics after the International Paralympic Committee said athletes
from many other nations vowed to not compete if they remained in the Games.
The IPC also said
ensuring safety at the athletes’ village was becoming untenable after an
earlier decision to allow Russians and Belarusians to compete as neutral
athletes. The Games open Friday.
[Note 6]
2022 0522
https://www.arabnews.com/node/2087341/world
DAVOS,
Switzerland: The president of the World Economic Forum has said the
Geneva-based organization is sending a strong signal to Moscow by not inviting
Russian officials and businesses to this year’s Davos summit while issuing an
invitation to the Ukrainian leader to address the gathering.
2022 0527
Banning sports stars and musicians perfectly fits the Kremlin’s
narrative that the war in Ukraine is one of national survival
2022 0325
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/25/putin-says-west-trying-to-cancel-russian-culture
President Vladimir Putin
has accused the West of trying to cancel Russian culture, including the works
of great composers such as Pyotr Tchaikovsky, Dmitri Shostakovich and Sergei
Rachmaninoff.
[Note 7]
WJC: Ukrainian priests must stop glorifying
Nazis
https://www.jta.org/2013/08/23/global/wjc-ukrainian-priest-must-stop-glorifying-nazis
wiki World Jewish Congress
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Jewish_Congress
2014 0304
Foreign Policy In Focus
“The Dark Side of the Ukraine Revolt”
https://fpif.org/dark-side-ukraine-revolt/
The U.S. press has downplayed the role of
Svoboda, and even more far right groups like Right Sector and Common Cause, but
Britain’s Channel 4 News reports that such
quasi-fascist groups “played a leading role” in organizing the demonstrations
and keeping them going.
In the intercepted phone call between U.S.
Assistant Secretary of State for European Affairs Victoria Nuland and U.S.
Ambassador to the Ukraine, Geoffrey Pyatt, the two were, as Russian expert
Stephen Cohen put it to Democracy Now, “plotting a coup
d’état against the elected president of the Ukraine.”
At one point Nuland endorses “Yat” as the
head of a new government, referring to Arseniy Yatsenyuk of the Fatherland
Party, who indeed is now acting Prime Minister. But she
goes on to say that Svoboda leader Oleh Tyahnybok should be kept “on the
outside.”
[Note 8]
zh.wikipedia.org/zh-tw/孔子学院
www2.hkej.com/instantnews/china/article/3146906/王毅%3A美印太經濟框架是用自己標準框住別國
[Note 9]
2022 0523
hk.news.yahoo.com/英國金融時報-沙烏地仍然支持俄羅斯在opec-中的作用-171308439.html
2022 0601
[Note 10]
2022 0530
Our YouGov Ukraine poll exposes deep Arab mistrust of the West
https://www.arabnews.com/node/2092916
Today, we report the results of our latest collaboration with
YouGov: An examination of attitudes on the “Arab Street” to the conflict in
Ukraine. The findings offer illuminating insights on the catastrophe unfolding
on Europe’s eastern flank that will reverberate far beyond the MENA region.
They suggest apathy and disinterest in the Arab world toward this
atrocious conflict; 66 percent of respondents said they had no stance on the
war, while those who did choose a side were almost evenly divided — 18 percent
backed Ukraine and 16 percent Russia.
Most strikingly, perhaps, the findings lay bare the extent of the
distrust of the West across all 14 of the countries
covered in the survey. Almost a quarter of the 7,835 people surveyed (24 percent) pointed the finger of blame for the conflict
squarely at NATO, while more than one in ten (13
percent) said US President Joe Biden was responsible. Only 16 percent blamed
Russia.
[Note 11]
2022 0530
Russian oil
exports to India jump 25x
https://www.rt.com/business/556345-russian-oil-exports-jump-india/
India has received
34 million barrels of discounted Russian oil since February, more than 10 times
the value of the total imports from the country year-on-year, Reuters reported
on Monday, citing Refinitiv Eikon data.
According to the
report, more than 24 million barrels of Russian crude were supplied this month,
up from 7.2 million barrels in April, and from about three million barrels in
March. The South Asian nation is set to receive about 28 million barrels in
June, data shows.
Last year, Russian
crude exports to India averaged just 960,000 barrels per month, roughly 25
times less than this month’s total.
[Note 12]
2022 0531
The 9th BRICS Education
Ministers Meeting was held online
https://infobrics.org/post/35819/
2022 0531
Saudi Arabia and Argentina desired to join
the BRICS grouping
https://tvbrics.com/en/news/saudi-arabia-and-argentina-desired-to-join-the-brics-grouping/
2022 0518
A 14-member delegation of mainly Muslim-Americans of
Pakistani background were in Israel from May 8-14 to show support for the 2018
Abraham Accords between Israel and several Muslim states. The 10-day trip to
both Israel and the United Arab Emirates generated both positive and negative
publicity. Graciously received by top Israeli officials …
Wiki
Israel-Pakistan relations
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Pakistan_relations
… lack of formal diplomatic relations,
owing to Pakistan's non-recognition of Israel as a sovereign state due to the
Arab–Israeli conflict …
[Note 13]
History of Economic Thought Articles 1898
vol.4
“The instinct of Workmanship and the
Irksomeness of Labor”, by Thorstein Veblen, 1898.
https://econpapers.repec.org/article/hayhetart/veblen1898c.htm
[Note 14]
Harvard Business Review
“The Great Resignation didn’t start with
the Pandemic”
https://hbr.org/2022/03/the-great-resignation-didnt-start-with-the-pandemic
2022 0601
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/06/01/jolts-job-quits-april/
Some
4.4 million Americans quit or changed jobs in April, according to a
report released Wednesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, using their
leverage in a labor economy where job openings continue to outnumber job
seekers by close to two-to-one.
2022 0404
“Four-day
week: which countries have embraced it and how’s it going so far?”
Last
month, Belgian employees won the right to perform a full workweek in four days
instead of the usual five without loss of salary.
2022 0503
“What
is the four-day working week and how close is the UK to getting it?”
2022 0530
std.stheadline.com/daily/article/2465779/日報-國際-英60企業試行周休三日-增員工幸福感
[Note 15]
https://baike.baidu.com/item/hea/2479681
“Hea”的流行源起香港地區，於二十世紀九十年代末開始流行，有一種說法是源自英文的hang
around，意指“遊蕩”，也就是“漫無目的地消耗時間”、“懶散”、“無所事事”的意思。可作形容詞用，如“hea做”（不認真、隨便敷衍地做事），也可作動詞用，如“我哋去邊度hea？”（我們去哪裡打發時間？）、“唔好再喺度hea啦。”（不要再這樣無所事事了。）
baike.baidu.com/item/躺平/24123069
躺平，網絡流行詞：癱倒在地，不再雞血沸騰、渴求成功了。躺平看似是妥協、放棄，但其實是“向下突破天花板”，選擇最無所作為的方式反叛裹挾。年輕人選擇躺平，就是選擇走向邊緣，超脫於加班、升職、掙錢、買房的主流路徑之外，用自己的方式消解外在環境對個體的規訓
