北溪爆炸 與 被稱為「碳炸彈」的阿拉斯加「柳樹」
我的《信報》文章(2023年4月12日A14頁)刊登後的改良加長版
https://www1.hkej.com/dailynews/article/id/3423323
許劍昭
3月23日〈路透社〉報導，丹麥在「北溪」海底輸氣往德國的管道(去年9月發生了三起爆炸)附近，發現了一個從海床突出約40厘米、直徑 10厘米的管狀物體。此新聞教人詑異之處是，受丹麥邀請助查的不是盟友，反而是近年被針對、制裁的俄羅斯國有天然氣公司Gazprom旗下的管道營運商。
[Note 1]
此取態難免讓人聯想到，或許跟美國著名偵查記者赫什（Seymour Hersh）的指責有關(稱美國國家安全顧問經總統的批准後，安排破壞北溪管道;但欠缺實質證據)。
[Note 2]
當美國在盟友間的誠信受到質疑之際，拜登在3月13日公然違背競選承諾、漠視環保團體的強烈反對，批准位處於阿拉斯加北部靠近北冰洋岸邊的石油鑽探項目。
[Note 3]
石油公司最初申請在該區開發五個鑽台(Willow Project，中譯為「柳樹項目」)，獲特朗普批准其四。但在 2020年大選辯論期間，拜登在攝影機及數以百萬計觀眾面前聲稱，如果當選，將推翻特朗普的決定，因為他不會允許新的原油鑽探項目。
[Note 4]
因此，現時拜登批准三口鑽台(共約150口油井，日產18萬桶，等於美國當前產量的1.6%)，令人驚訝。環保團體甚至稱之為「碳炸彈」(carbon bomb) ，因為此項目每年產生約920萬噸二氧化碳排放，等於在道路上增加200萬輛燃油車的碳排量;格陵蘭冰蓋加速熔化可期。
[Note 5]
由於該項目的東鄰加拿大將受到嚴重影響，拜登在10天之後的3月23日親身訪問渥太華，為任內首次官式會見總理特魯多，強調: 「我們的命運交織在一起，密不可分」。
[Note 6]
當被加拿大記者問及「柳樹」項目時，拜登這樣把它合理化:「是在北冰洋更好的博奕和地獄般的權衡」(…better gamble and a hell of a tradeoff to have the Arctic Ocean …)。
[Note 7]
美國主流媒體除了對此一問一答隻字不提，還湧現大量文章，用這樣那樣的理由來解釋「柳樹」項目為何不可或缺。
在另一邊厢，權威科學期刊《自然》3月15日發表論文，指出北溪管道爆炸的海床乃一個化學戰垃圾的傾倒場(a dumping ground for chemical warfare) ，爆炸引發了長期埋藏的毒素，其濃度足以威脅海洋生態。
[Note 8]
3月27日，提請聯合國安理會調查北溪管道爆炸的議案因不足九票未獲通過(只有俄羅斯、中國、巴西投贊成票，包括美、英、法、日本、瑞士在內的其他成員國棄權) 。而綠色團體對拜登批准「柳樹」的法律訴訟成功機會也微乎其微。唯這兩起事件對國際關係卻至少有兩項微妙影響。
[Note 9]
第一，就保護地球生態政策而言，無論是受到特朗普及右翼勢力影響的共和黨，還是自稱高度重視環保的民主黨上台執政，美國聯邦政府極難再獲國際社會信任。
保護地球的政治意義在於它提供了歷史上前所未有的機會，打破國際關係中的「永久敵意」 (perpetual enmity) 。加州大學教授帕戈登(Anthony Pagden 1945 - ) 在2009年指出，自古希臘與波斯開戰以來，根源於歐洲的白人一直感到自己的生存受到威脅，因此發展出諸類意識形態來為侵略合理化、霸權必要化;故悲觀地認為東西方之間合作少、鬥爭多。
[Note 10]
但頻密的乾旱、山火、洪水對日常生活的的直接影響，已經讓大部分不愁衣食的西歐民眾意識到，人類確實有一項只有依靠互助才能克服的共同危難，故有必要與其他種族合作。
地廣人多的中國在減碳排一直跑在前面，成績、誠意、恆毅皆有目共睹，歐洲的從政者(雖然讚賞中國減碳的話少說出口)愈來愈願意與北京加強合作。儘管來自白宮的政治壓力日見沉重，歐盟多位領導人先後表示「不能失去中國」、「歐洲絕不能與中國脫鈎」。
[Note 11]
國際關係主軸，已開始從往昔
藉促進民主之名干涉他國內政的「新自由主義」、
以國家安全為由阻礙別國發展的「新現實主義」，
向人類「共富裕、同安全」的壯志演變。
第二項是北溪爆炸對德美關係的微妙影響。有參考價值的是國際政治間的「髒手」(dirty hands)
概念，普林斯頓大學教授瓦爾澤(Michael L. Walzer 1935- ) 於1973年的一篇論文建立了髒手的分析框架。
奧巴馬總統下令即場槍殺拉登(暗殺) 、
國務卿鮑威爾向聯合國謊稱伊拉克擁有大殺傷性武器(譎謊)，
都是髒手的近例
其大意是指政府官員直接或間接，在境外安排一些不道德且違反國內法律的活動，於他國造成財產損毀、人命傷亡;而關鍵是決策官員認為這是符合國家利益的必要行動。
[Note 12]
但這種活動通常是由強國進行的，因為倘若弱國這樣做，將受到強國的嚴厲懲罰、報復。為此，一群學者於1993年舉辦了一個「髒手工作坊」(dirty hands workshop)，試圖為約束和合理化髒手活動設置一些考慮因素，類似時下流行的術語 —「基於規則」(rules-based) 。
[Note 13]
髒手能被視為一種理所當然的國際政治手段，歷史悠久。在一場對英國政制發展方向影響深遠的里程碑級別辯論中，被譽為現代英語奠基者、堅定的共和主義者(支持處決國王查理一世)的米爾頓(John Milton 1608-74 ，於1649年被任命為外語大臣) ，引述《舊約聖經》古代Ehud得到神的特別授權刺殺敵國君王(King Eglon) 作為論證，建構了一套保護本國利益的政治手段範式。自此以後，這種手段的變化層出不窮。
[Note 14]
或許大眾永遠不知道北溪爆炸是誰幹的，但最近的信息不免教人懷疑，白宮至少事先知悉此計劃，但沒有阻止其行動。被打擊的是俄羅斯，但城門失火，殃及池魚。這不僅在某程度上損害德美政府之間的互信，也使德國菁英及沉默的大多數民眾對美國决策者有離心。
去年11月，作為三年來首位訪華的七國集團成員領導人，德國總理舒爾茨不惜千里迢迢，來北京僅僅一天與國家主席習近平面談，別具意義。
[Note 15]
德美關係將左右西方內部非軍事合作的大方向，其長期影響值得更細心觀察。
Notes
[Note 1]
2023
0323 Reuters
COPENHAGEN,
March 23 (Reuters) - Denmark on
Thursday invited the Russian-controlled operator of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline
to help salvage an unidentified object found close to the only remaining intact
gas pipeline under the Baltic Sea.
Three
explosions last September on the Nord Stream pipelines built to deliver Russian
gas to Germany have become another flashpoint in a standoff between the West
and Russia set off by its invasion of Ukraine.
[Note 2]
2023
0209 Reuters
“Factbox:
Seymour Hersh: who is the journalist who claims the US blew up the Nord Stream
pipelines?”
Feb 9 (Reuters) - Pulitzer Prize-winning U.S.
reporter Seymour Hersh said this week that U.S. Navy divers, in a CIA operation
ordered by President Joe Biden, planted explosives that destroyed
three Russian gas pipelines under the Baltic Sea last September.
[Note 3]
2023
0314 RTHK
https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/ch/component/k2/1691835-20230314.htm
美國總統拜登政府不理會環保團體的反對，批准康菲石油公司在阿拉斯加的石油鑽探項目。
獲美國內政部土地管理局批准、名為「柳樹」的阿拉斯加開採項目，將允許康菲石油在阿拉斯加國家石油儲備區三處鑽探石油，而項目提出的另外兩個鑽探地點則被拒絕。
[Note 4]
Wiki,
Willow Project
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Willow_project
The
Willow project is an oil drilling project by ConocoPhillips located on the
plain of the North Slope of Alaska in the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska.
The project was originally to construct and operate up
to five drill pads for a total of 250 oil wells.
2023 0320 Politifact.com
Here’s
exactly what Biden said on oil drilling:
"Number
one, no more subsidies for fossil fuel industry. No
more drilling on federal lands. No more drilling, including offshore. No
ability for the oil industry to continue to drill, period, ends, number
one."
In a CNN debate, Biden said no more oil drilling.
For
natural gas, he promised to allow no new fracking.
His
stated campaign position is to ban “new oil and gas permitting on public lands
and waters.”
Says
Joe Biden “just announced on CNN he will completely shut down drilling for oil
and natural gas on day one of his administration.”
In debate, Joe Biden said no more oil drilling and no new fracking,
didn’t say shutdowns.
[Note 5]
2023
0313 EuroNews
‘Carbon
bomb’: What is the Willow project and why are climate activists so angry about
it?
2023 0330 NRDC
“Why the Willow Project is a Bad Idea”
https://www.nrdc.org/stories/why-willow-project-bad-idea
The Biden administration acknowledges that
Willow, if completed, would release an additional 9.2
million metric tons of carbon pollution into the atmosphere each year—roughly
equivalent to the pollution generated by two million gas-powered cars.
2023 0403 Science Alert
A new study identifies two of these
tipping points in relation to the Greenland ice sheet (GIS), a
1.7-million-square-kilometer (660,200-square-mile) frozen expanse that's the
second largest body of ice in the world after the Antarctic ice sheet.
Based on the latest models, releasing
1,000 gigatons of carbon into the atmosphere will completely melt the southern
region of the ice sheet. Go up to 2,500 gigatons, and almost
the entire ice sheet would be wiped away permanently.
[Note 6]
2023
0324 CBC, Canada
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/joe-biden-official-visit-canada-1.6789140
Calling
for closer Canada-U.S. ties, Biden says 'our destinies are intertwined and they're
inseparable'
[Note 7]
2023
0325 Pipeline Online, Canada
“Canadian
reporter challenges Biden on the hypocrisy of killing Keystone XL, but
approving Alaska Willow Project last week”
President Joe Biden: First of all, I don’t think
it is … And so I thought it was a good — a — the better gamble and
a hell of a tradeoff to have the Arctic Ocean and the Bering Sea and so many
other places off limits forever now …...
[Note 8]
2023 0315
Nature
“Nord Stream pipeline blasts stirred up
toxic sediment”
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-00746-2
The explosions happened in a dumping ground
for chemical warfare, but other contaminants proved most toxic to marine life.
[Note 9]
2023
0327 United Nations Press
“Security Council Rejects Draft Resolution
Establishing Commission to Investigate Sabotage of Nord Stream Pipeline”.
https://press.un.org/en/2023/sc15243.doc.htm
2023 0314 Reuters
“Green groups sue Biden admin over approval of
Alaska Willow oil project”.
[Note 10]
Anthony Pagden (2009), “Worlds at War: The
2,50-year struggle between East and West”, Oxford University Press.
https://www.amazon.com/Worlds-War-500-Year-Struggle-Between/dp/0812968905
Wiki, Anthony Pagden
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthony_Pagden
Anthony Robin Dermer Pagden (born May 27,
1945)[1] is an author and professor of political science and history at the
University of California, Los Angeles.
[Note 11]
2023
0324 Politico
“We
can’t lose China, EU leaders say”.
https://www.politico.eu/article/we-cant-lose-china-eu-leaders-say-euco-summit-xi-jinping/
Xi
Jinping’s blooming romance with Vladimir Putin is freaking EU leaders out. Now
they’re booking flights to Beijing.
Spain’s Sánchez, meanwhile, confirmed he would be meeting Xi in China next week. Spanish officials said he would discuss China’s position paper on Ukraine. Spain will take over the rotating presidency of the Council of the EU from Sweden later this year.
While EU leaders raised fears over the closer Moscow-Beijing ties, there was no consensus in Brussels on whether the bloc as a whole should adopt a new approach to China.
Luxembourg's Prime Minister Xavier Bettel called for continued engagement with Beijing to try to bring the Chinese closer.
"China is not
perfect, but we might need it one day," one EU official said.
"Several member states share this assessment."
2023
0405
www2.hkej.com/instantnews/current/article/3420262/馬克龍%3A歐洲絕不能與中國脫鈎
剛抵達北京訪問的法國總統馬克龍表示，雖然歐洲與中國的貿易關係存在風險且不平衡，但歐洲絕不能與中國脫鈎。
馬克龍在北京向當地的法國僑民表示，歐洲必須以某種方式降低行業的風險，但絕不能脫離關係和孤立自己，而法國將積極承諾繼續與中國保持商業關係。
2023 0404 Reuter
BEIJING,
April 5 (Reuters) - French President Emmanuel Macron said Europe must resist
reducing trade and diplomatic ties with China as he began a state visit on
Wednesday, seeking to refute any sense there was an "inescapable
spiral" of tension between Beijing and the West.
"It's not the time to announce business deals or big new
investments," said Noah Barkin, an analyst with Rhodium Group. "It
would essentially be a vote of confidence in the Chinese economy and send the message
that France is not on board with the U.S. approach
[Note 12]
Michael
Walzer, “Political Action: The Problem of Dirty Hands”, in Philosophy and
Public Affairs 2:2 (1973); p.160-80; 164-8, 174, 179.
Wiki, Michael Walzer
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Walzer
Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy: Dirty Hands
https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/dirty-hands/
Beginning with an illustrative passage
from a renowned 19th century English novel, the essay traces the dirty hands
tradition back to Machiavelli, though its present vogue is owed mostly to the
writings of the distinguished American political theorist, Michael Walzer. Walzer’s views are explored in the light of
earlier theorists such as Machiavelli and Max Weber and certain vacillations in
his intellectual posture are briefly discussed.
[Note 13]
See for more info on the 1993 York
University “Dirty Hands Workshop” in
Paul Rynard and David P. Shugarman (ed.)
(2000), “Cruelty and Deception: The Controversy over Dirty Hands in Politics”,
Broadview Press and Pluto Press.
https://www.amazon.com/Cruelty-Deception-Controversy-Dirty-Politics/dp/1551111969
[Note 14]
See page xiii in
Martin Dzelzainis (ed.) Claire Gruzelier
(transl.) (1991), “John Milton: Political Writings”, Cambridge University
Press.
“ …that Eglon ‘was a forren Prince, an enemie, and Ehud besides had special warrant from God’ …”
For the image, see p.20 in the original book
wiki, Ehud
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ehud
Ehud ben‑Gera (Hebrew: אֵהוּד בֶּן־גֵּרָא,
Tiberian ʾĒhūḏ ben‑Gērāʾ) is described in the biblical Book of Judges chapter
3[1] as a judge who was sent by God to deliver the Israelites from Moabite
domination. He is described as being left-handed and a member of the Tribe of
Benjamin.
[Note 15]
2022 1104
AlJazeera
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has met with
Chinese President Xi Jinping during the first visit by a leader of the Group of
Seven (G7) nations to China in three years.
“We also want to talk about how we can
further develop our economic cooperation on other topics: climate change, food
security, indebted countries,” he said.
2022 1122 Aljazeera
https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2022/11/22/is-germany-changing-tack-on-ukraine
now there are some signs that German
society is growing tired of the Ukraine war. A survey conducted in October
suggests that 40 percent of Germans fully or partially believe that NATO
provoked Russia into invading Ukraine. That number increases to a staggering 59
percent in provinces that were once part of communist East Germany.
About a third of respondents share the view that Ukraine is historically part of Russia and roughly the same number accept the conspiracy theory that the US had set up secret laboratories on Ukrainian soil to develop biological weapons.
What matters in this survey is the trend. Compared with a poll conducted by the same organisation, CeMAS, in April, the share of respondents with Russia-friendly or Russia-compatible views has grown.
