我的《信報》文章(2024年1月26日A14頁) 刊登後的改良加長版
《北約砲彈價格暴漲 與 美國白人新兵劇減》
www1.hkej.com/dailynews/commentary/article/3669607/北約炮彈價格暴漲+與+美國白人新兵劇減
許劍昭
1月初，瑞典參謀總長Michael Claesson 表示，自家設計的「弓箭手」155 毫米自走榴彈砲現價比 2021年貴8倍。早於去年10月，北約軍事委員上將Rob Bauer已抱怨，一枚常規155毫米砲彈的價格，從2021年俄烏戰事前的2,000歐元暴漲到目前的8,000歐元。
[Note 1]
供求失衡是漲價的近因。
整個歐洲的155 毫米砲彈最高月產量約為33,000枚，只稍微多於側重製造海空軍飛彈的美國28,000枚月產量;但烏克蘭每天發射的砲彈多達6,000 枚（去年9月CNN報道）。整個北約一方面要向烏克蘭供彈，同時又要補充空蕩蕩的倉庫，價格飛昇是無可避免的市場現象。
[Note 2]
另有兩則相關新聞。前年12月，英國皇家聯合軍種研究所示警，國庫的彈藥只能應付一個星期的戰爭;一位退休將領更表示，英國如果與俄羅斯開戰，一天就會用光所有砲彈。
[Note 3]
今年1月，奧地利國防部長在新聞發布會上發牢騷，指該國年輕人日益肥胖是去年入伍人數下降的主因(45,565人應徵，僅31,516通過健康要求)。
[Note 4]
顯然易見，歐洲諸國缺乏處理突發戰爭的準備;這是長期依仗美國提供軍事保護的結果。此依賴不僅損害自主，也侵蝕人心。
古希臘哲學家亞里斯多德(Aristotle 公元前384-322 )反對把戰俘變成奴隸，但同意雅典人從鄰近的落後野蠻部落購買奴僕，論據有二。
一是雅典公民既頻繁參與公共事務，也經常從軍出征，終身需要住家僕人。
另一是那些智力低下的奴僕也喜歡較佳的食宿，而更重要的是免於殘酷戰鬥以保人身安全。
及至四世紀，米蘭主教聖安博(St. Ambrose 340-397)用第二個論點來解釋《舊約》故事中，Esau被安排成為弟弟Jacob的奴隸，是因為這位長兄會愚昧惹禍，須予管控，以保安全。
因此，儘管所有人都是上帝的兒女，但天意容許一些人成為他人的奴僕以備受保護。此觀點被後來的商人歪曲用來把黑奴的買賣合理化(詳見劍橋大學教授Peter Garnsey 的著作Ideas of Slavery 1996) 。
[Note 5]
儘管自十九世紀以來奴隸制已被逐步廢除，但強者提供安全給弱者的主僕從屬觀念衍變成霸權聯盟的哲理基礎。受保護的盟友(僕）在某些政治、經濟、軍事方面，服從保護國（主）的指令、安排，被視為理所當然(俄烏戰爭初期，德國只願意提供頭盔援助，結果是總理立即被召至華盛頓接受「教訓」) 。
[Note 6]
蘇聯解體後，歐洲的戰爭風險大幅降低。在美國的保護傘下，諸國政府減少軍工產能升級及其他軍事支出，節省下來的錢用於提高人民生活質素;並減少每週工時，鼓勵休閒享樂。
2017 年歐盟成員國住戶用於娛樂文化的花費平均佔開支8.5%(前兩位是丹麥11.5%、瑞典 11.0%，末兩位是羅馬尼亞 5.8%、希臘4.6%)。
[Note 7]
香港沒有同等數據，但以2019-20年普查參考，圖書、期刊、影院、派對、煙酒、度假、旅遊團、出入境交通、通訊上網的支出加起來只佔4.2%，即使包括教科書和其他教育服務，總佔比也僅為4.8%。
[Note 8]
歐洲民眾除了花費大量時間及金錢於平常的旅遊、歌劇，許多人還透過聲色犬馬、酗酒吸毒等取樂。
一場新冠病毒疫情，暴露的不僅是躲懶三十年後的危機意識薄弱、後勤資源匱乏、基層人手不足，還有醫療、運輸、護老體系的千瘡百孔;更糟的是大量年輕人把自己的派對狂歡建築在別人病痛之上的自私劣品。
一些歐洲政要知道處境嚴峻。法國總統馬克龍倡議增加每週工時和推遲退休年齡的改革，以減輕政府負擔並扭轉社會的懶惰文化趨向; 且在2018年議建一支歐軍，獲當時的德國總理默克爾大力支持。
但經過5年的協調與談判，能做的僅是基於參戰阿富汗的模式，組建一支小隊來應付「境外」的突發事件。去年10月，歐盟舉行史上首次聯合軍演，9國31個軍事單位只能派出共2,800兵力參與;而北約今年首次軍演則有9萬兵。
[Note 9]
在北約內部，主僕從屬關係根深蒂固，長期被保護的弱方沒法解開束鏈的鎖。但隨着特朗普的崛起，保護者有可能自願解鎖。
關鍵不是特朗普本人，而是他和共和黨新領導層的意識形態 ——Christian Nationalism (暫譯「基督教民族主義」) ;其象徵性旗幟現正豎立於眾議院議長約翰遜（Mike Johnson）辦公室門外。
[Note 10]
1月11日，《軍事網站》報道，陸軍成功招募的白人士兵數量在過去五年減少近半，從2018年的44,042人縮至2023年25,070人;新兵的白人佔比也低至44%。負責軍官認為減少的主因是，年輕白人受共和黨及保守派媒體影響，抵制在拜登政府管理下軍隊內那種激進化個人主義的woke 。
[Note 11]
除了反對在歐洲已普遍合法化的同性戀、跨性別、墮胎，共和黨的保守派現正倡議把美國變成基督教國家，「為上帝奪回美國」，按照《聖經》的道德教誨治國。其信念之一是美國應專注於照顧自己，對為世俗化的歐洲予出生入死的犧牲甚有保留。
[Note 12]
故此，特朗普表明(他統領的美國)不會為歐洲而戰(1月10日Politico.eu報道);並在今年競選的第五項承諾申明「解僱戰爭販子和全球主義者」(Fire Warmongers and Globalists)。
[Note 13]
德國大報Die Welt去年12月發文，引述一位政治策略家稱，美國「數十年來幾乎沒有來自歐洲的移民……對許多年輕的美國人——包括新世代的政要——來說，歐洲只不過是一所露天博物館……歐洲關注福利、躲在美國保護傘下享受繁榮的生活方式正在結束」。
[Note 14]
由於遭到共和黨阻撓，拜登一月初暫停援助烏克蘭，揭示持續內鬥致美國政策可靠性成疑。加沙戰爭也向歐盟暴露美式雙重標準，白宮主人可以一下子改變政策立場。
[Note 15]
北約盟友之間即使稱兄道弟，實質上仍是主僕從屬，既損害受保護國的主權，亦腐蝕其百姓的心靈。唯當中涉及巨大軍工利益，故抗擊特朗普的鬥爭火花將與砲彈的價格競比天高。
Notes
[Note 1]
2024 0110
https://www.rt.com/news/590396-ukraine-ammo-prices-skyrocket/
Speaking
to Sveriges Radio national broadcaster on Tuesday, Michael Claesson said the
conflict had led to a surge in demand in a very short period of time.
According
to Claesson, artillery shells for the Swedish-designed Archer 155mm
self-propelled howitzer are now eight times more expensive than in 2021.
2023 1127
NATO,
whose own procurement agency is also pursuing the acquisition of more 155mm rounds, is finding
that prices have quadrupled.
In
October, NATO’s senior military officer, Adm. Rob Bauer, said that the price for one 155mm shell had risen from
2,000 euros ($2,171) at the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion to 8,000
euros ($8,489.60).
[Note 2]
2023 0917
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/09/17/europe/ukraine-shell-supplies-intl/index.html
Amid their counteroffensive, Ukrainian guns are firing up to 6,000 rounds daily,
[Note 3]
2022 1202
British Army’s ammunition would last for only a week of war, says
Royal United Services Institute
2023 0203
https://metro.co.uk/2023/02/03/britains-ammo-would-run-out-in-a-day-in-war-against-russia-18217046/
Britain’s ammo ‘would only last a day against Russia’, former
general warns
[Note 4]
2023 0112
Today’s Youth too fat to
join the military: EU state Defense Minister
In the year 2023, Austria
managed to recruit an estimated 45,565 conscripts, down by 217 compared to
2022. Of the total, only 31,516 were
deemed healthy and fit to serve in the military.
[Note 5]
See
p.113, p.196 in
Peter
Garnsey (1996), “Ideas of slavery from Aristotle to Augustine”, Cambridge:
Cambridge University Press.
https://bibleresources.info/in-romans-910-13
In
Romans 9:10-13, the Bible says that God chose Jacob over Esau when they had not
been born. And God also said that the older will be slave to the younger. God
honored Jacob over Esau. Is this like saying, "all human beings are
created equal, but some are more equal than others." (Liberia)
[Note 6]
2022
0126
https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-export-5000-helmets-ukraine/
Germany
on Wednesday announced it was shipping 5,000 protective helmets to Ukraine,
while reiterating that it would not send any weapons.
2022
0207
German
Chancellor Olaf Scholz and United States President Joe Biden are set to meet
for the first time, with questions over Germany’s commitment to NATO in the
face of a spiralling standoff with Russia set to loom large at the White House
talks
.the
German government has also faced criticism for its refusal to supply lethal
weapons to Kyiv.
[Note 7]
2019
0111
Eurostat:
Household spending on recreation and culture
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/-/DDN-20190111-2
In 2017, households in the European Union (EU) spent 8.5% of their
total consumption expenditure on "recreation and culture". This represents a total expenditure of over €710 bn, equivalent
to 4.6% of EU GDP or €1400 per EU inhabitant. A more complete overview of
household final consumption expenditure, broken down by consumption purpose, is
available in this interactive infographics.
Denmark
and Sweden spend highest share of household expenditure on recreation and
culture, Greece spends least
In
the EU in 2017, the share of household expenditure devoted to “recreation and
culture” was largest in Denmark (11.5%) and Sweden (11.0%)
ahead of Finland (10.5%), Slovakia (10.4%), the Netherlands (10.1%) and Austria
(10.0%). At the opposite end of the scale, Greece
(4.6%) spent the lowest share of their household expenditure on
“recreation and culture”, followed by Romania (5.8%),
Ireland and Luxembourg (both 5.9%) as well as Cyprus (6.0%).
[Note 8]
HK
Census 2019-20
Table
140-09005 : 2019/20 Household Expenditure Survey - Average Monthly Household
Expenditure by Commodity/Service Section/Group by Type of Housing
https://www.censtatd.gov.hk/en/web_table.html?id=140-09005
tobacco
wines 0.5%
newspapers,
books, periodicals 0.1
in/out
bound fares 0.5
cinema less than 0.1
package
tours 0.7
parties 0.1
holiday
exp 0.1
info
comm. 2.1
textbooks
0.4
edu services 0.2
[Note 9]
2018
1110
https://www.dw.com/en/trump-macron-attempt-to-defuse-row-over-eu-army-proposal/a-46239259
The
office of French President Emmanuel Macron says his comments on the need for an EU army have been misinterpreted by his US
counterpart. Donald Trump lashed out at Macron on Friday over the
proposal.
US
President Donald Trump and his French counterpart, Emmanuel Macron, held talks
on Saturday after a public spat over the French
leader's suggestion that Europe should rely less on the US for its security.
The
US and France attempted to smooth over differences over a European defense
mechanism, with Trump assuring Macron that Washington would "help"
Europe with its defense.
Trump,
however, reiterated that EU member states must pay their fair share toward NATO
expenses.
2023
1019
www1.hkej.com/dailynews/international/article/3591059/歐盟首聯合軍演+減依賴北約
歐盟本週舉行史上首次聯合軍演，9個國家31個軍事單位派出共2800兵力參與在西班牙舉行的演習，以提升歐盟迅速應對境外危機的能力，為2025年前部署快速反應部隊進行首次測試，
期望不再依賴美國及北約。
2023
0119
https://std.stheadline.com/realtime/article/1976263/即時-國際-北約軍演下周登場-9萬官兵參與規模數十年來最大
北約歐洲盟軍總司令卡沃利宣佈，北約從下周起至5月將舉行「堅定捍衛者2024」（Steadfast Defender 2024）軍事演習，將出動9萬官兵
[Note 10]
2023 1117
https://thinkbigpicture.substack.com/p/mike-johnson-christian-nationalist-flag
Mike Johnson lets his Christian
Nationalism flag fly
2023 0214
Christian nationalism is a worldview that
claims the U.S. is a Christian nation and that the country's laws should
therefore be rooted in Christian values. This point of view has long been most
prominent in white evangelical spaces but lately it's been getting lip service
in Republican ones, too.
2023 1115
"An Appeal to Heaven" flag, a
symbol embraced in recent years by Christian Nationalists, hangs outside
Speaker Mike Johnson's congressional office.
Eric McDaniel/NPR
https://www.npr.org/2023/11/15/1211536399/speaker-johnson-christian-nationalism-evangelical
"An Appeal to Heaven" flag, a
symbol embraced in recent years by Christian Nationalists, hangs outside
Speaker Mike Johnson's congressional office.
Eric McDaniel/NPR
Taylor noted that Johnson has also
embraced certain symbolism of the far-right movement that has been popularized
by pastors like Sheets. One of those is the "An Appeal to Heaven"
flag, which is a white flag with a green pine tree in the center that dates
back to the Revolutionary War. It has become a symbol for Christian
Nationalists and was carried by people who stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6.
"I don't know how much Mike Johnson
buys into any of that, but he's definitely sending overt signals to these
extremist networks of Christians that he is in solidarity with them," he
said.
The flag still hangs outside of his
congressional office in the Cannon building.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_nationalism
[Note 11]
2024 0110
https://www.military.com/daily-news/2024/01/10/army-sees-sharp-decline-white-recruits.html
The Army's recruiting of white soldiers
has dropped significantly in the last half decade, according to internal data
reviewed by Military.com, a decline that accounts for much of the service's
historic recruitment slump that has become the subject of increasing concern
for Army leadership and Capitol Hill.
A total of 44,042 new Army recruits were
categorized by the service as white in 2018, but that number has fallen
consistently each year to a low of 25,070 in 2023, with a 6% dip from 2022 to
2023 being the most significant drop.
In 2018, 56.4% of new recruits were
categorized as white. In 2023, that number had fallen to 44%.
Another Army official pointed to partisan attacks from conservative lawmakers and media, which
has an overwhelmingly white audience. Those groups have used the
military as a partisan cudgel against the Biden
administration, lambasting the services for being "woke," or
so preoccupied with liberal values that they have abandoned their warfighting
priorities. In most cases, those attacks have zeroed in on the services being
more inclusive for women, service members from racial minority groups and
LGBTQ+ troops.
[Note 12]
Andrew L Whitehead and Samuel L. Perry
(2020), “Taking America Back for God: Christian Nationalism in the United
States”.
https://www.amazon.com/Taking-America-Back-God-Nationalism/dp/0190057882
[Note 13]
2023 1230
Trump:
5. Fire Warmongers and Globalists
Trump has vowed to take on the globalists,
determining that “World War III has never been closer than it is right now.”
“We need to clean house of all of the
warmongers and America-Last globalists in the Deep State, the Pentagon, the
State Department, and the national security industrial complex,” he said in a
campaign video, promising to “complete the mission” of restoring peace and
cleaning house, should he make it to the White House again
2024 0110
https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-vow-never-help-europe-attack-thierry-breton/
BRUSSELS — One of Europe's most senior
politicians recounted how former U.S. President Donald
Trump privately warned that America would not come to the EU's aid if it was
attacked militarily.
"You need to understand that if
Europe is under attack we will never come to help you and to support you,"
Trump told European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in 2020,
according to French European Commissioner Thierry Breton, who was also present
at a meeting at the World Economic Forum in Davos.
"By the way, NATO is dead, and we
will leave, we will quit NATO," Trump also said, according to Breton.
"And he added, ‘and by the way, you owe me $400 billion, because you
didn’t pay, you Germans, what you had to pay for defense,'" Breton said
about the tense meeting, where the EU's then-trade chief Phil Hogan was also
present.
[Note 14]
2023 1215
2023 1217
The comfortable era of
prosperity and the welfare state under the protective umbrella of American
defence is ending and Europe needs to “switch to a war
economy”, the director of a top European security forum warns.
[Note 15]
2024 0112
https://news.yahoo.com/u-suspends-military-aid-ukraine-120200164.html
the military aid that the U.S. had been providing to Ukraine has currently been
halted, White House National Security Council Coordinator John Kirby
said during a press briefing on Jan. 11.
2023 1129
Last year, United States President Joe
Biden told reporters he believed Russian President Vladimir Putin was a “war
criminal” in response to civilian casualties in Ukraine. Israel’s response to
Hamas’ attack on 7 October has raised serious questions about whether the US has a double standard when its allies commit war
crimes and target civilians.
