我的《信報》文章(2025年2月13日A14頁)刊登後的改良加長版
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《中美關係2025-8 與柏拉圖、尼采、當代法家政治哲學》
論文系列的
〈論文二上〉特朗普可使美國短暫變得強大
《推翻多項共識 特朗普踐行「凱撒主義」》
www1.hkej.com/dailynews/commentary/article/3998329/推翻多項共識+特朗普踐行「凱撒主義」
許劍昭
特朗普自去年12月以來，已宣布或採取實際行動，推翻至少四項國內兩黨議會共識。
第一，TikTok不賣則禁的法案(眾議院 360-58, 參議院 79-18大比數通過)是拜登政府時期民主黨和共和黨達成的共識;特朗普簽署行政命令，推遲禁令75天。
[Note 1]
第二，美國國債上限自1917年定案以來，一直是兩黨的議會共識;特朗普在接受 NBC新聞採訪時，斥責此舉荒謬，表示將廢除聯邦債務上限。
[Note 2]
第三，聯儲局於利率調整方面的獨立性，早已成為美國上下的共識，而中央銀行的自主性也是西方經濟學界的共識。特朗普卻自詡較聯儲局主席鮑威爾更懂得利率，並向瑞士達沃斯世界經濟論壇表示，他將尋求立即減息，明言利率政策應該跟隨政府的步伐。
[Note 3]
第四，彼此尊重盟友國家主權、相互促進盟友政經合作，乃美國兩黨二戰後的恆常共識。唯特朗普以認真的態度，提議吞併加拿大為第51州，並迫使丹麥讓華盛頓購買格陵蘭島。
[Note 4]
特朗普有這樣的膽識、能耐，挑戰或推翻兩黨長期以來的主流建制共識，其政治權力基礎，不在於所獲選票的量，而是在於支持者的質。
2024年總統大選，特朗普取49.8%的民眾選票（賀錦麗48.3%）
；2020年，拜登得總數的51.3%（特朗普46.8%）。因此，單從選民數量來看，特朗普及拜登同樣充其量只被半數國民認同。
[Note 5]
唯早在2016年，《金融時報》的 Martin Wolf 指出，特朗普已促成美國式「凱撒主義」的出現。
[Note 6]
古羅馬共和時期的凱撒(Julius Caesar 公元前100-44)，因彪炳的戰績及出色的演講技巧，獲得軍民的廣泛愛戴、擁護、信賴。公元前46年，凱撒被選為「獨裁者」，任期十年。其權力及影響力無人能與之匹敵，且於展開一系列政府架構、公民戶籍、土地分配的改革後，被推舉為「終身獨裁者」（dictator perpetuo）。
[Note 7]
近代德國在實現成年男子普選後，社會學奠基者韋伯
(Max Weber 1864-1920)以權傾一時的「鐵血宰相」俾斯麥(Otto Bismarck 1815-98)為參考，提出了凱撒主義的分析框架，探討具有卓越個人政治魅力(charisma)的領袖，如何從大眾選舉中演變而來，並推敲這種凱撒治理模式的優劣。
[Note 8]
套用此分析框架觀察特朗普，可以大致得出以下的觀察。
作為一位具有卓越個人魅力的領袖，特朗普能牢取選民的熱情支持，使那些擁戴他的民眾跟他建立一種 「奉獻效忠式」(devotional)的關係，
[1] 牽引支持者積極地出資出力提供聲援
(數以百計的持槍支持者多年來駕駛載有國旗和「美國再次偉大」旗幟的卡車在各地巡遊)、
[2] 縱容追隨者勇敢地為其權威四處奔走
(數以百計的持槍支持者在多地遊行炫示威風，甚至衝擊國會山莊) 。
[Note 9]
日常管治則包括:
[1]蔑視耗費時間辯論的議會
(當今形式包括簽署行政命令、拒絕回答記者是否需要國會批准接管加沙地帶);
[2]尋求非常態的權力
(當今形式的引用緊急法取得特殊權力);
[3]使不服從、不附和、不響應的政府人員無地容身
(當今形式的解僱數以萬計國防部、司法部、聯邦調查局、消費者保護局、國際開發總署、聯邦教育部的官員) 。
[Note 10]
1月20日就職第一天，特朗普選擇坐在體育館中央高台的桌前，在數千名支持者面前簽署行政命令，然後把筆扔給群眾，激起瘋狂的尖叫、雷霆的歡呼、震撼的掌聲。可以想像電視熒幕前數以十萬計的支持者，也分享着擁有這樣一位親民總統的喜悅和自豪。
[Note 11]
相反，拜登政府的支持者大多數相對消極、沉默;積極行動者則因為阿拉斯加「柳樹」鑽油計劃及加沙問題而倒戈，對民主黨也非常失望。
[Note 12]
儘管特朗普的支持者只佔選民的一半，但他們積極、氣盛、擁槍，團結地環繞在充滿魅力的特朗普旁邊，敢於必要時為其政策在民間採取積極行動。此股「擁護凱撒」的狠悍力量讓特朗普敢於推翻任何他認為不適合的共識，開創遠超想像的新局面。
也許有論者認為特朗普在國內外樹敵眾多，很快就會陷入困境。本文卻不認同，理據有四，包括:
刻下國內政治對手過於弱小、
海外盟友長期過度依賴美國、
美國的軍事和金融實力仍無可匹敵、
於新科技產業界極具領袖魅力的馬斯克(2月8日其X帳戶擁有超過 2.16 億追隨者) 為他在多方面保駕護航。
[Note 13]
展望未來四年，若能持續有效地實踐凱撒主義手段，特朗普不僅可以輕易鎮壓國內反對力量，更因為不受國內嚴格制約，會在國際舞台上任意妄為，踩踏別國的主權、治權，且成功獲益的機會很高。
例如強制購買格陵蘭一事，由於丹麥的盟友舉棋不定、不知所措，網上投注成功購買賠率已從一賠二十降至一賠四。
[Note 14]
中東方面，鑑於美軍登陸加沙較進入阿富汗和伊拉克均容易得多，剩下的技術困難只是使用甚麼高壓手段迫使鄰國接收巴勒斯坦人。
[Note 15]
歷史表明，群眾的非理性和魅力型領導人的崛起是全民投票規則(plebiszitäre herrschaft)的自然產物，配合累累的軍事碩果
、雄厚的經濟資源，它將導致權力集中、強橫冒進的帝國政體。例子包括:
凱撒之後的羅馬帝國(歷時450年)、
幾乎統一整個歐洲的拿破崙帝國(歷時10年)、
俾斯麥之後的德意志帝國及納粹獨裁(歷時50年) 。
[Note 16]
特朗普的盛勢難以阻擋，除少數國家外，所有政府都有機會被霸凌侮辱或壓榨利益。強如俄羅斯也許可以在烏克蘭危機中取得一些好處，但或須承諾減少插手中東事務、凍結金磚組織的擴展計劃等;最後只能靜待美國內鬥升級或犯下嚴重錯誤。
[Note 17]
出售TikTok乃無可避免。但中國堅持不懈的守正自強，將可達到「德不孤，必有鄰」(《論語·里仁》)，以合作共贏的亮麗成績取得友國的信任，渡過難關。
(*** The essay presentation shows various font sizes and I do not know why. Please accept my apology.)
Notes
[Note 1]
2025 0118
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/us-leaders-lawmakers-backpedal-eve-tiktok-ban-rcna188180
Last April, the House voted 360-58 to force TikTok to divest or be banned. The bill, which was packaged together with foreign aid to Israel and Ukraine, passed the Senate by an overwhelming vote of 79-18.
[Note 2]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_United_States_debt_ceiling
The history of the United States debt ceiling deals with movements in the United States debt ceiling since it was created in 1917.
A statutorily imposed debt ceiling has been in effect since 1917 when the US Congress passed the Second Liberty Bond Act. Before 1917 there was no debt ceiling in force, but there were parliamentary procedural limitations on the amount of debt that could be issued by the government.
[Note 3]
2024 1220
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/12/20/politics/trump-debt-ceiling/index.html
He
doubled down on his call in a Truth Social post overnight Friday, calling for
the “ridiculous” ceiling to be extended into 2029.
Trump,
in an interview with NBC News, has also endorsed abolishing the limit on
federal debt – currently more than $36 trillion – altogether.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Reserve
Although an
instrument of the U.S. government, the Federal Reserve System considers itself
"an independent central bank because its monetary policy decisions do not
have to be approved by the president or by anyone else in the executive or
legislative branches of government, it does not receive funding appropriated by
Congress, and the terms of the members of the board of governors span multiple
presidential and congressional terms."
https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/about_12799.htm
The Federal
Reserve, like many other central banks, is an independent government agency but
also one that is ultimately accountable to the public and the Congress.
2024 1205
WASHINGTON (AP) — Chair Jerome Powell said
Wednesday that the Federal Reserve’s ability to set interest rates free of
political interference is necessary for it to make decisions to serve “all
Americans” rather than a political party or political outcome.
Speaking at the New York Times’ DealBook
summit, Powell addressed a question about President-elect Donald Trump’s
numerous public criticisms of the Fed and of Powell himself. During the
election campaign, Trump had insisted that as president, he should have a “say”
in the Fed’s interest rate policies.
In his remarks Wednesday, Powell said, “We’re
supposed to achieve maximum employment and price stability for the benefit of
all Americans and keep out of politics completely.”
Despite Trump’s comments, the Fed chair said
he was confident of widespread support in Congress for maintaining the central
bank’s independence.
20250124
www1.hkej.com/dailynews/headline/article/3985366/特朗普揚言將要求儲局立即減息
美國總統特朗普周四向瑞士達沃斯世界經濟論壇發布視像講話，雖然沒有直接點名聯儲局，但就任總統後首次把矛頭指向聯儲局，明確表示他將尋求立即減息，而世界各地也應該下調利率，利率政策應該跟隨政府的步伐，並促請石油出口國組織（OPEC）降低油價。 特朗普又稱，美國前任總統拜登政府在通脹和邊境問題上失去了控制，
...
20250125
www1.hkej.com/dailynews/headline/article/3986428/自詡比鮑威爾更懂得利率
美國總統特朗普周四於瑞士達沃斯世界經濟論壇上發表視像講話，明言會要求即時減息及促請石油出口國組織（OPEC）降低油價後，續於白宮橢圓形辦公室（Oval Office）向記者表示，自己比聯儲局主席鮑威爾更懂得利率，打算在適當時候與他對話。 對於利率，特朗普指出，若他有不同意見，會讓大家知道。
[Note 4]
2022 0627 Carnegie Endowment
“Why it’s crucial that
the G7 and NATO summits are back-to-back”
[Note 5]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election
[Note 6]
2016 0302 Financial Times
Martin Wolf, “Donald
Trump embodies how great republics meet their end”
https://www.ft.com/content/743d91b8-df8d-11e5-b67f-a61732c1d025
“… An American
‘Caesarism’ has now become flesh …”
[Note 7]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Julius_Caesar
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dictator_perpetuo
[Note 8]
2007 0322 Stanford Unversity
“Caesarism in Democratic
Politics: Reflections on Max Weber”
https://law.stanford.edu/publications/caesarism-in-democratic-politics-reflections-on-max-weber/
Max Weber argued that
every mass democracy tends in a caesarist direction. Weber employed the term to
stress, inter alia, the plebiscitary
character of elections,
disdain for parliament,
the non-toleration of
autonomous powers within the government
and
a failure to attract or suffer independent
political minds.
A hundred years ago –
even before present-day modes of campaigning, before present-day modes of
political fundraising, before television advertising – Weber was of the view
that the position of the President of the United States lies on the road to a
pure form of caesarist acclamation. After analyzing Weber’s views, the paper
examines recent trends in American presidential politics.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Otto_von_Bismarck
[Note 9]
2024 0612 Washington Post
“Since when does Donald
Trump own the American flag?”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/06/13/reclaim-american-flag-trump/
[Note 10]
2025 0123 Time Magazine
“Trump’s Border Emergency
Declaration is an Abuse of Power”
https://time.com/7209435/trump-emergency-declaration-border-power-abuse-essay/
2025 0120 NPR
“Trump has declared a
‘national energy emergency.’
https://www.npr.org/2025/01/20/nx-s1-5268653/energy-emergency-trump-oil-evs
2025 0205 DW TV news via ViuTVsix channel Hong Kong
The news reporter said
Trump did not answer question on whether his takeover of Gaza needed the
approval of the Congress.
2025 0129 AP
“Firings, freezes and
layoffs: A look at Trump’s moves against federal employees and programs”
2025 0207 CNN
“How Trump and Musk have
shaken the federal workforce”
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/02/07/politics/trump-musk-federal-workforce/index.html
[Note 11]
2025 0120 YouTune
“Trump signs executive
orders and throws pens into crowd live on stage”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BWQlHIL-kxo
[Note 12]
2023 0314 Politico
“Biden’s green allies
promise lawsuit over Alaska oil project”
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/14/biden-willow-oil-project-alaska-00086836
2023 1102 The Hill
“Biden faces mounting
anger from progressives over Israel-Hamas conflict”
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4288202-biden-progressives-anger-over-israel-hamas-conflict/
[Note 13]
https://www.boomsocial.com/EN/X/Account/elonmusk-44196397
2025 0208 follower: 216,521,188
[Note 14]
2025 0130 The Guardian
“Europe needs to stand up
for Greenland. It is failing”
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/jan/30/greenland-europe-donald-trump-us-threats
2025 0108 Legal Sports Betting
Greenland has +400 odds
to become the 51st state during Trump’s presidency.
[Note 15]
2025 0206 France24
“Could Trump force Jordan
and Egypt to take Palestinians deported from Gaza?”
US President Donald
Trump’s demands for Jordan and Egypt to take in what could be millions of
Palestinians deported from Gaza under the president’s stated plan for the
devastated territory have been met with a fierce backlash from the Arab world.
But with both nations deeply dependent on US
military and economic aid, Washington could bring a lot of pressure to bear on
the beleaguered countries.
[Note 16]
See Ch.3 in
Peter Baehr (2008),
“Caesarism, Charisma and Fate”, New Brunswick and London: Transaction
Publishers.
https://www.amazon.com/Caesarism-Charisma-Fate-Historical-Resonances/dp/B01K0T1ZEA
[Note 17]
2017 0526 Foreign Policy
“Trump’s Budget is
American Caesarism: on militarism, exhaustion, and decadence”
https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/05/26/trumps-budget-is-american-caesarism/
