我的《信報》文章(2025年7月7日A12頁)刊登後的改良加長版
本文也是我的
《中美關係2025-8 與柏拉圖、尼采、當代法家政治哲學》
論文系列的
〈論文二下〉特朗普可使美國短暫變得強大:
https://www.hkej.com/dailynews/commentary/article/4132253/戰爭與和平%3F+特朗普盤算周密
特朗普對和平與戰爭的盤算
許劍昭
基於特朗普在首個總統任期及現任上半年的實際行動，他對和平與戰爭的盤算可以從三個角度簡略探討。
首先，從歷史地理角度來看，假如在任期間美國領土遭到轟炸，「美國再次偉大」的理想就無法實現;而倘若美國領土沒有擴張，躋身為「美國史上最偉大的總統之一」亦僅是一場夢想。
近百年來，美國領土至少遭受三次攻擊或嚴重威脅，包括1941年珍珠港事件（特朗普時年5歲）、1962年古巴危機（時年16歲）、2001年9/11襲擊（時年55歲）。
[Note 1]
另一方面，畢業於私立軍事中學的特朗普當然知道，美國從1776年在東岸13個州立國始，到1898年吞併夏威夷、1900年軍事擊敗土著後佔領南太平洋Samoa、1917年向丹麥購買 Virgin Islands、1959年阿拉斯加正式成為美國第49州、同年夏威夷則為第50州……長期致力擴大領土。
[Note 2]
一個較大的損失是，自1899年起對菲律賓的統治於1942年因日本攻佔而結束;二戰後，華盛頓面對強烈的非殖民化呼聲，無奈讓其成為一個新的共和國。
[Note 3]
有鑑於此，特朗普對和平與戰爭的盤算至少有三點。
第一，因俄羅斯及中國有能力直接轟炸美國腹地，故特朗普盡可能與俄、中保持和平的政治關係;而由於北韓有能力攻擊夏威夷甚至美國西岸，特朗普也試圖與金正恩建立友好關係。6月24日，總統辦公室頒布國家緊急狀態行政命令延長1年，理由是「北韓政權持續發展核武與導彈，持續對美國的國家安全、外交政策、經濟發展構成嚴重威脅。」由此可見，特朗普對國土受打擊的威脅高度關切。
[Note 4]
第二，特朗普既與軍工複合體沒有密切聯繫，也努力削減政府開支，卻不惜斥資1750億美元建造「金穹」飛彈防禦系統，充分反映了他對國土安全的重視程度。
[Note 5]
第三，特朗普緊盯格陵蘭及加拿大，策略似乎是先禮後兵併之入美國。因此，他不會浪費精力與盟友維持過往般的兄弟關係，反而會經常炫示其超級大國領導人的尊崇地位，必要時會施加軍事威脅，甚至派遣步兵駐紮某處，以獲得一些實質的進展，例如10 年後接管若干平方公里領土的協議。
[Note 6]
這枚和平與戰爭盤算的硬幣有兩面。
一邊是特朗普保持國際關係和平穩定，以便能夠專注於實現自己的目標;
另一邊是不會浪費資源去打一場不可能擴大國土的戰爭。
快速解決伊朗及以色列之爭就是一個避免長戰的例子。從6月19日星期四白宮發言人引述特朗普的話，表示重啟談判具「重大機會」(substantial chance)，至6月23日星期一特朗普透過社交媒體宣布雙方同意停火，並感謝伊朗提前告知白宮他們即將轟炸美國軍事基地;事後諸葛而言，三方在幕後調解人的安排下，於四天內完成一場各有得失的表演。
[Note 7]
擅長於爆放誤導性煙幕的特朗普在宣布成功轟炸伊朗核設施的4分鐘記者會後，無法掩飾自己的喜悅，多達五次感謝上帝：「我只想感謝所有人，特別是上帝。我只想說，我們愛你，上帝，我們愛我們偉大的軍隊，保護他們。願上帝保佑中東，願上帝保佑以色列，願上帝保佑美國。」
[Note 8]
故此，解除伊朗經濟制裁的談判很快就會出現;同時，由於歐洲列國意識到特朗普絕非一個怯於動武的總統，在談判格陵蘭及加拿大融入美國時，不可避免地處於下風。
[Note 9]
從經濟金融角度來看，假如在任期間，美國高科技製造業失去主導地位，甚或美元不再是隻手可以遮天的交易及儲備貨幣，「美國再次偉大」只是個笑柄。
特朗普除了確保人工智能、高階芯片等高科技創新不斷升級，還要復興船舶、汽車、藥品、煉礦等高端製造業(對運動鞋、襪子、棉衣等清晰表示不感興趣);
同時務使國際商品運輸航線安全順暢、費用低廉，
並開拓海外市場增加出口。例如今年2月，特朗普倡議在阿拉斯加建造一條天然氣管道往東亞(要求日本及南韓投資建造此長度1300公里，成本440億美元的海底管道) ;另在關稅談判期間，要求歐盟及日本購買大量美國製造的汽車。
[Note 10]
為了實現所有這些目標，盡力確保歐亞同時處於和平、穩定的狀況，乃當然不過的盤算;其積極的副作用是減少其他國家的危機感，毋須增加黃金代替美元作為儲備。
第三個角度是從意識形態來看，借用遠交近攻的古語來描述，特朗普耍的一套是「強交弱攻」;具體行動是一方面強調與俄羅斯及中國領導人有非常好的關係，另一方面卻欺侮巴拿馬、加拿大的元首，戲弄烏克蘭、南非的總統。
[Note 11]
這種謀術背後的意識形態，可以參考柏克(Edmund Burke 1729 -97) 與潘恩(Thomas Paine 1737-1809)關於兩人在生時一起目
睹的法國大革命及美國獨立的辯論。
激勵廣大美東民眾反抗英國殖民統治的潘恩認為，每個人都擁有自由選擇、追求個人目標的天然權利;不受祖先道德、社會傳統、客觀環境的限制。
柏克則認為一個人生於社會並非出於選擇，而是祖先、父母的延展; 其一生後續的選擇及行為，均受到他與家庭、社區、國家乃至全球從古至今累積的複雜且非平等「關係」所限制。兩人的此項辯論被認為是現代左翼、右翼思想區分的開始。
[Note 12]
把右翼思想推向極端的特朗普，評級別國為
大與小、
強與弱、
主人與附庸不同的層級;
他自己受到關係的限制，但也能利用關係的新定位、新培育，來優化其和平與戰爭的盤算。
操控、玩弄國際及領導人之間的層級關係，短期內或可得到
強國的容忍、
弱國的退讓、
附庸的割地，
實現「美國再次偉大」。
但長遠而言，國勢衰落的風險卻會增加(另文討論) 。
Notes
[Note 1]
Wiki, Donald Trump
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump
… born June 14, 1946
Wiki, Attack on Pearl Harbor 1941 Dec
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attack_on_Pearl_Harbor
Wiki, Cuban Missile Crisis 1962 Oct
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cuban_Missile_Crisis
Wiki, September 11 attacks 2001 Sep
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_11_attacks
[Note 2]
Wiki, Donald Trump
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump
… His father enrolled him in New York
Military Academy, a private boarding school, to complete secondary school.
Wiki, Territorial evolution of the United States
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_evolution_of_the_United_States
Wiki, Overthrow of the Hawaiian Kingdom
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overthrow_of_the_Hawaiian_Kingdom
… annexation of the islands to the
United States … in 1898
Wiki, American Samoa
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Samoa
… The Navy secured a Deed of Cession of
Tutuila in 1900 and a Deed of Cession of Manuʻa in 1904 on behalf of the U.S.
government.
Wiki History of the United States Virgin Islands
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_United_States_Virgin_Islands
… Faced
with mounting deficits, the Danish government repeatedly attempted to sell the
islands. After decades of negotiations, the United States purchased the islands
in 1917 (USD25,000,000 in gold coin).
Wiki List of U.S. states by date of admission to the Union
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_by_date_of_admission_to_the_Union
……
49
Alaska January 3, 1959
50
Hawaii August 21, 1959
[Note 3]
Wiki,
Americans in the Philippines
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Americans_in_the_Philippines
American settlement in the Philippines
(Filipino: paninirahan sa Pilipinas ng mga Amerikano) began during the Spanish
colonial period. The period of American colonization of the Philippines was 48
years long. It began with the cession of the Philippines to the U.S. by Spain
in 1898 and lasted until the U.S. recognition of Philippine independence in
1946.
[Note 4]
2025 0624 Federal Register: The Daily Journal of the
United States Government
“Continuation of the National Emergency
With Respect to North Korea: A Presidential Document by the Executive Office of
the President on 06/24/2025”
The existence and risk of the proliferation of weapons-usable
fissile material on the Korean Peninsula and the actions and policies of the
Government of North Korea continue to pose an unusual and extraordinary threat
to the national security, foreign policy, and economy of the United States. For
this reason, the national emergency declared in Executive Order 13466, expanded
in scope in Executive Order 13551, addressed further in Executive Order 13570,
further expanded in scope in Executive Order 13687, and under which additional
steps were taken in Executive Order 13722 and Executive Order 13810, must
continue in effect beyond June 26, 2025. Therefore, in accordance with section
202(d) of the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. 1622(d)), I am continuing for 1 year the national emergency declared in
Executive Order 13466 with respect to North Korea.
[Note 5]
Wiki
Golden Dome (missile defense system)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_Dome_(missile_defense_system)
Trump stated the project would be completed within three years and
cost approximately $175 billion.
[Note 6]
2025 0504 POLITICO
“Trump still would like to add Canada
and Greenland but says attack on Canada ‘highly unlikely’”
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/05/04/trump-carney-canada-greenland-00325783
President Donald Trump isn’t closing
the door on using force to attempt to annex Greenland and Canada. But he said
the prospect of attacking Ottawa appears “highly
unlikely.”
Greenland on the other hand?
“I don’t rule it out,” Trump told host Kristen Welker in an interview that aired Sunday on NBC’s “Meet the Press.” “I don’t say I’m going to do it, but I don’t rule out anything. No, not there. We need Greenland very badly. Greenland is a very small amount of people, which we’ll take care of, and we’ll cherish them, and all of that. But we need that for international security.”
[Note 7]
2025 0619 Fox News
“Iran talks with Europeans set for
Friday; White House sees ‘substantial chance’ for renewed negotiations”
Speaking with reporters in the White
House press briefing room Thursday, Leavitt confirmed U.S. and Iranian
officials have engaged in six rounds of direct and indirect negotiations
Wiki, Iran-Israel war ceasefire
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Israel_war_ceasefire
The Iran–Israel war ceasefire was a
phased ceasefire in the Iran–Israel war, starting on the morning of 24 June 2025 (Tuesday).
It was mediated by the United States and Qatar.
[Note 8]
2025 0622 Daily Beast
“Trump’s Strange God Talk Has People
Concerned”
https://www.thedailybeast.com/donald-trumps-strange-god-talk-has-people-concerned/
In a Saturday evening address, where he
confirmed the U.S. had struck three Iranian nuclear facilities, it was
President Donald Trump’s repeated mention of “God” that stood out to several of
his critics.
At the end of his four-minute address,
Trump said, “I want to just thank everybody, in particular, God. I want to just say we love you God, and we love our great military, protect them. God bless the Middle East, God
bless Israel, and God bless America.“
[Note 9]
2025 0624 Fox News
“Trump declares China can purchase
Iranian oil as market signals cautious optimism”
2025 0625 CBS News
“Trump says U.S. will meet with Iran
next week
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-nato-summit-the-hague-news-conference-iran-israel-ceasefire/
[Note 10]
2025 0521 CAP
“President Trump says he wants more U.S. Shipbuilding — Here’s How
to do it well”
2025 0429 The White House
“Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Incentivizes Domestic
Automobile Production”
2025 0526
華爾街見聞
特朗普：美國製造業不要襪子要坦克
https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3747861
2025 0526 New York Post
“Trump says US wants to make tanks, not T-shirts”
https://nypost.com/2025/05/26/business/trump-says-us-wants-to-make-tanks-not-t-shirts/
President Donald Trump said on Sunday his tariff policy was aimed
at promoting the domestic manufacturing of tanks and technology products, not sneakers and
T-shirts.
Speaking to reporters before boarding Air Force One in New Jersey, Trump said he agreed with comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on April 29 that the US does not necessarily need a “booming textile industry” – comments that drew criticism from the National Council of Textile Organizations.
“We’re not looking to make sneakers and T-shirts. We want to make military equipment. We want to make big things. We want to make, do the AI thing,” Trump said.
2025 0219 AP News
“Trump puts the spotlight anew on a major Alaska gas project. Will it make a difference?”
https://apnews.com/article/alaska-trump-gas-pipeline-dda1408ebd2235232092ce45ab63ee53
Trump mentioned the pipeline at a news conference with Japan’s
prime minister earlier this month, drawing praise from Alaska Gov. Mike
Dunleavy and U.S. Sen. Dan Sullivan, both Republicans. As proposed, the nearly 810-mile (1,300-kilometer) pipeline would funnel gas from Alaska’s vast North
Slope to port, with an eye largely on exports to Asian countries.
Critics, however, see this as a repackaged version of a decades-old effort that has struggled to gain traction. Hurdles include the cost — an estimated $44 billion for the pipeline and related infrastructure — competition from other projects and questions about its economic feasibility.
[Note 11]
2025 0202 CNN
“Trump reiterates threat to retake
Panama Canal ‘or something very powerful’ will happen”
2024 1210 NBC News
“Trump mocks Prime Minister Justin Trudeau
as the 'governor' of the 'Great State of Canada'
The president-elect recently quipped
that Canada should become the 51st state and has proposed imposing tariffs on
it.”
2025 0228 CNN
“Watch tense Oval Office argument
between Zelensky, Trump and Vance”
2025 0521 NPR
“Trump ambushes South Africa's
president with false claims of 'white genocide'”
https://www.npr.org/2025/05/21/nx-s1-5404667/south-africa-white-house-visit-ramaphosa-trump-tensions
[Note 12]
Yuval Levin (2013), “The Great Debate:
Edmund Burke, Thomas Paine and the Birth of Right and Left”, New York:Basic
Books.
https://www.amazon.com/Great-Debate-Edmund-Burke-Thomas/dp/0465050972
