Sunday, May 9, 2021

立法應付 突發戰爭、誣華攻勢 (及blog, facebook新安排)

香港須立法應付 突發戰爭 華攻勢

*** 本文章沒有版權限制歡迎轉貼、轉載、引用


武統台灣省一旦發生若未能速戰速決且僵持激烈也許一些關鍵通訊衛星會被導彈擊落(51日美軍將領John Raymond講話)海底互聯網電纜會被潛艇摧毀滿懷敵意可能會撮弄盟友以撤僑為名拖延時間(於最後關頭帶走蔡英文一夥)煽惑日本登陸釣魚島嶼,慫恿印度挑起邊界衝突,教唆英、澳、加在香港散佈謠言(催促持有其護照的國民離港)

[Note 1]

 

兵者詭道也香港已成中美對弈的前線陣地早防範

[Note 2]

 

儘管現任美國總統拜登他歡迎競爭期待合作,聲稱無意在印太地區動與中國衝突,對俄羅斯亦沒有升級敵對打算(416日在國會致辭) 種種其國務卿團隊烏克蘭台灣省進行各類續不間斷小動作不僅與巧言不符,且似是隱藏兇險刻意在東亞東歐製造矛盾

[Note 3]

 

先從歐洲學一點教訓據俄方分析員的解釋莫斯科在俄烏邊境部署十萬多兵力的主因之一是116日拜登任命盧嵐(Victoria Nuland為國務院政治事務次卿,位置實際是僅次於國務卿的最高決策者。須知道盧嵐是奧巴馬時代領導烏克蘭「改變現的大腦

 

1990年離開蘇聯,於歐盟與俄羅斯之間的烏克蘭政府一直維持平衡關係。莫斯科對這種保持現」也很滿意(北京對馬英九的不統不獨不武保持現」政策沒有反感)201311烏克蘭熱切希望加入歐盟的民眾舉行大規模示威準備不足的總統被迫離開首都基輔。

 

根據一段遭到曝光2014128日通話盧嵐從美國駐烏克蘭大使提名的三名反對派領導人之一,選擇了 Yatsenyuk 成為新政府的總理。人果然在227日出任總理這等同確認美國幕後策劃烏克蘭改變現

[Note 4]

 

現任烏克蘭總統不斷通過對俄羅斯的負面宣傳尋求加入北約方阻礙興建從俄羅斯到德國離岸天然氣管(例見416日接受法國《費加羅報》採訪)

 

等舉措,拜登形容普京是殺手(killer譯成殺人犯較接近原意)妖魔化策略相當配合。在特朗普時代離開國務院的盧嵐(俄語、略曉漢語,曾在駐廣州使館及蒙古任職)這次重返兼獲晉升極具「改變戰略意義。

[Note 5]

 

西方社會敵視俄羅斯非偶然。挪威學者Iver B.Neumann的研究表明,自1493年有記以來,歐洲知識分子一直全方位醜化、誣衊俄羅斯,將俄人視為外人野蠻人例如倡議人人平等盧梭認定俄羅斯永不能變得文明(社會契約卷二 第八章)。瑞士史學家 Gonzague de Reynold在其巨著歐洲第一段明言:俄羅斯是亞洲人(法語 la Russie est asiatique)

[Note 6]

 

另一項數以百年計抹黑是西班牙黑色傳(Spanish Black Legend)。由於哥倫布獲西班牙君主贊助,該國冒險家早着先鞭,前赴南美;當中一些人粗暴對待土著,另一些則友善地以物換物。1550西班牙貴族神職人員聚集一堂,討論殖民者應如何對待土著,史稱 Valladolid Debate

 

落後於形與西班牙激烈競爭的荷蘭法國英格蘭,利用這個機會,把辯論時所露的部分殖民者粗暴對待土著資料印製圖文並茂傳遍歐洲大陸。其中一本被譯成多種語言的書 (Robert Ashley 英譯1589) ,用大量貶斥抹黑西班牙政府,並藉機延伸對象至當地猶太人及大多是穆斯林摩爾人(他們西班牙人通婚頗普遍) 造成禍害深遠的災難性後果

 

而多個世紀以來美國白人看扁南美拉丁裔(anti-Hispanic) 及近年西北歐人加泰羅尼亞尋求獨立時挖苦西班牙,均「黑色傳遺毒有關連

[Note 7]

 

誣衊異類文化(Otherness)抹黑競爭對手,是西方列強比拼一招長勝殺着。「黑色傳」一直伴着荷西戰爭(1568-1648)、英西戰爭(1585-1604)、法西戰爭(1635-59);直到西班牙被擊倒,方被反猶太主義取代為主流。

[Note 8]

 

攻勢,即使冷戰結束後仍未停止(新鮮出爐的是低貶俄國疫苗) 被譽為「冷戰史學泰斗」的海軍戰爭學院耶魯教授蓋迪斯(John Lewis Gaddis1941),長期倡議執行大戰略(2018年出版 Grand Strategy) 靈活使用馬基雅維利、狐狸、刺猬戰術在全球恢復19世紀常用的的單邊主義先發製人霸權謀略,壓抑醜化競爭對手,確保俄羅斯及共主義者再也不能威脅美國

[Note 9]

 

前國務卿蓬佩奧去年723日的演講幾乎像蓋迪斯過去30年的主張撮要,現任國務卿團隊的小動作則似是延續前任的方案。中國的快速崛起也招來遏制、圍堵;西方翻用誣衊策略實屬必抹黑新疆、香港舊瓶新酒。

[Note 10]

 

普京沿俄烏邊界陳兵列武,另一主因是要掌控主動權。中央政府也要尋求兩項主動權。一是隨時可執行武統台灣島,而非待美國戰艦泊進高雄港,因為這將落入對手的計算範圍。

 

另一是冶爆破美國金融泡沫的刺及建立盡量減少自身損失的機制32日銀保監會主席郭樹清表達國務院對歐美金融泡沫破滅的擔憂同時表示正研究處理波動的有效辦法這是正確的方向;但應多走一,即手握

[Note 11]

 

熱戰金融戰可突然發生華攻勢會更密集兇險香港社會經濟將面臨諸種意想不到嚴峻挑戰緊急法》允許司法覆核根本無法處理緊急情況故必須預早另定律法,授權特區政府應對戰爭局勢,調撥戰略資源尤其是處理沒有互聯網和衛星的規範媒體電視電台廣播的消息報導

 

雖然國安法完善選舉制度若干穩定社會的功能,但由於領導層對色價」過分寬容仁厚,可供攬炒」者利用戰亂時發難的缺口仍存(至少有四個) 適時立法可防不測

  

請讀者註意

信報2016-2021發表時事評論文章告一段落

現在的計劃是分別用中文和英文:

[1] blog寫一些哲學探討國際政治

 

[1a] 中文blog:《當代法家抱法處勢治國理念》

http://contemporarychineselegalism.blogspot.com/

 

[1b] My Blog in English:  Helmsman Ruler
http://helmsmanruler.blogspot.com/

 

[2] facebook 寫一些短評

[2a] 中文 facebook : 劍昭

facebook.com/pages/category/Arts---Humanities-Website/許劍昭-291239628239550/

 

[2b] My facebook in English: Keith K C Hui

facebook.com/pg/Keith-K-C-Hui-許劍昭-497253654140092/posts/

  

Notes

[Note 1]

2021 May 1, Washington Post

https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/washington-post-live/wplive/gen-john-raymond-says-space-forces-goal-is-to-deter-conflicts-in-space/2021/04/30/a2012953-fc2d-4e6f-a5e1-8462ca5490c1_video.html

Gen. John Raymond, the first chief of space operations of the U.S. Space Force, says space is a war-fighting domain, explaining that “China and Russia have developed weapons that can disrupt our satellites or destroy our satellites.” He adds that Space Force’s goal is to not get into conflicts that begin or extend into space. “Our goal is to deter that from happening.”

 

[Note 2]

《孫子兵法:始計 六》

https://ctext.org/art-of-war/laying-plans/zh

 

[Note 3]

2021 04 29   HKEJ

www2.hkej.com/instantnews/current/article/2783380/拜登冀與中國之間是競爭而非衝突

2021 Apr 28

The White House: Remarks as prepared for delivery by President Biden — Address to a Joint Session of Congress

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/04/28/remarks-as-prepared-for-delivery-by-president-biden-address-to-a-joint-session-of-congress/

 

[Note 4]

2021 Apr 20  Strategic Culture

Russia increases its defense, while U.S. backs down from provoking WWIII

https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2021/04/20/russia-increases-its-defense-while-us-backs-down-from-provoking-wwiii/

Perhaps the clincher, in Putin’s mind, was Biden’s appointment, on January 16th, of Victoria Nuland to the #2 spot in the U.S. State Department,

 

2015/06/03  中央社

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/ch/news/2747971

(中央社記者呂欣憓台北3日電)總統馬英九今天表示,現是不統、不獨、不武,並在「九二共識、一中各表」的基礎上推動兩岸關係,一個中國就是中華民國,這些保證成為讓現很穩固的基石。

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victoria_Nuland

zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/盧嵐_(美國外交官)

 

[Note 5]

2021 Apr 16

Full text of the interview of President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy to the French newspaper Le Figaro. The conversation took place on April 13, 2021 in Kyiv.

https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/intervyu-prezidenta-ukrayini-gazeti-le-figaro-68029

 

2021 Mar 17, EURACTIV

https://www.euractiv.com/section/global-europe/news/biden-calls-putin-a-killer-and-says-will-pay-a-price/

In an interview aired on Wednesday (17 March), US President Joe Biden said his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin is “a killer”.

“He will pay a price,” Biden told ABC News in the interview. Asked when those consequences would come, he said: “You’ll see shortly.”

 

[Note 6]

See Chapter 3 Making Europe: The Russian Order, in

Iver B. Neumann (1999), Uses of the Other: The East in European Identity Formation, Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press.

p.82   “… Rousseau pitted his own representation of Russia.   In Social Contract he was very clear: ‘Russia will never be civilized …” (Rousseau [1762] 1973 book 2, Ch.8, 198-199)

 

p.102  “…In a book series on the formation of Europe published in France in 1950, the first paragraph of the first chapter of the volume on Russis is headed ‘La Russie est asiatique.’  The author, Gonzague de Reynold states that Russia cannot be judged by European measures …”

 

[Note 7]

Wiki, Spanish Black Legend (leyenda negra)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_legend_(Spain)

 

Wiki, Valladolid debate 1550-1

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valladolid_debate

 

[Note 8]

Wiki, Eighty Years’ War 1568-1648: Netherlands vs Spain

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eighty_Years%27_War

Wiki, Anglo-Spanish War 1585-1604

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglo-Spanish_War_(1585%E2%80%931604)

Wiki, Franco-Spanish War 1635-59

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franco-Spanish_War_(1635%E2%80%931659)

 

[Note 9]

Wiki, John Lewis Gaddis 1941-

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Lewis_Gaddis

 

Harvard University Press:

2005 Book by John Lewis Gaddis: Surprise, Security, and the American Experience

https://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674018365

The Bush administration has, therefore, devised a new grand strategy whose foundations lie in the nineteenth-century tradition of unilateralism, preemption, and hegemony, projected this time on a global scale. How successful it will be in the face of twenty-first-century challenges is the question that confronts us. This provocative book, informed by the experiences of the past but focused on the present and the future, is one of the first attempts by a major scholar of grand strategy and international relations to provide an answer.

 

2019 Mar 31

Medium.com Book Review by Nahua Kang

On ‘Grand Strategy’ by John Lewis Gaddis

https://medium.com/@nahua/on-grand-strategy-by-john-lewis-gaddis-24f51fdbf5d9

Should On Grand Strategy be summarized in one sentence, it would tether two simple tenets: great leaders must be both a hedgehog and a fox, comfortable in juggling combinations, contradictions, and contrasts; remember that your aspiration is limitless but your capabilities are constrained, so balance your ends and means.

The book is filled with such polar exemplars: the old Pericles, Julius Caesar, Augustine, Philip II, George III, Napoleon, Wilson, all hedgehogs trying to herd foxes; the younger Pericles, Augusutus, Machiavelli, Elizabeth I, Founding Fathers, Lincoln, Franklin D. Roosevelt, all foxes with compasses.

To see truth at every point, the leader requires the ability to live among contradictions through what Machiavelli calls “sketching,” assessing the “knowns”, such as geography, climate, your own capabilities, the “probabilities”, as in the goals of adversaries, the reliability of allies, and your country’s capability to endure adversity, and finally the “unknowns”, which lurk in the intersections of the first two.

 

[Note 10]

2020 July 23   U.S. Department of State

https://2017-2021.state.gov/communist-china-and-the-free-worlds-future-2/index.html

Communist China and the Free World’s Future

Michael R. Pompeo, Secretary of State
Yorba Linda, California
Richard Nixon Presidential Library

 

[Note 11]

2021-03-03 中國經營網

郭樹清:看一下市盈率 美國市場泡沫破裂令人擔憂

http://www.cb.com.cn/index/show/zj/cv/cv135114611261

美國的金融市場規模最大,可以看一下他們的市盈率,我們擔心泡沫破滅後,生的一些影響。”中國人民銀行黨委書記、中國銀保監會主席郭樹清32日向記者表示。 32日,在國務院新聞辦舉行的新聞發布會上,郭樹清介紹了推動銀行業保險業高質量發展有關情況。新聞發布會後,郭樹清再次表達了對海外市場泡沫的擔憂,並表示“不能簡單我們不能解決美國的問題,也不能解決歐洲的問題”。警惕海外金融資泡沫破裂美國1.9萬億美元的大流行病紓困計劃獲眾議院通過後,外界對美國貨幣“放水”生了擔憂。