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《徵AI稅派錢「全民高收入」是禍是福?》
https://www.hkej.com/dailynews/commentary/article/4428660/徵AI稅派錢+「全民高收入」是禍是福%3F
「全民高收入」是禍是福的兩點思慮:
馬斯克與馬克思的對話
許劍昭
六月初的兩則新聞:
一是亞馬遜表示將擴大「機械人Digit」在物流網路的試點應用至美國各地的多個物流中心;
另一是深圳市將「打造全球首個涵蓋賓客接待、行李引導、客房服務、餐飲配送、全域清潔、互動陪伴全流程的機械人服務酒店。」
[Note 2]
最高調的「機械取代人力」預測來自馬斯克(Elon Musk 1971- )。
2024年5月：在巴黎舉行的Viva Tech大會上，他闡述其人工智能(AI)和機械人提供所有商品和服務的願景:「在許多方面都堪稱天堂，因為屆時沒有人須要上班工作」;並倡議政府向全民寄送支票，稱之為「全民高收入」(Universal High Income)。
[Note 3]
本文認為，儘管有些工種仍須由人類完成，例如上門修理破損的水管、達成國際協議的外交談判，但在可見的將來，很有可能多達70%至80% 的人類(包括軍人)工作被科技取代。
從「機械取代人力」視角構想來未來，最顯著的變化是(被活化的)金屬將取代人力。
依照生產要素的概念，「勞動力」(labour) 將被「土地」(land)所取代。雖然金屬（土地）本身不能自行創造價值，但少量程式設計師（勞動力）可以將金屬改造成智能機器和靈巧機械人，執行以前由人類完成的任務從而創造經濟價值。
從挖掘地下金屬，到重型工業機械(例如機床、鏟土機、起重機)的生產，再到伺服器、貨車、家用電器、手機等日常用品的製造，中小企業難以承擔發展完全自動化模式的巨額高科技投資，馬斯克的願景很可能會演變成「寡頭壟斷」(或譯為「寡占」，oligopoly)的經濟市場結構。
也就是說，在幾乎所有「機械(land)取代人力(labour)」的產業，不多於五家大型企業控制該市場供需60%至100%的份額(俗稱的「五企集中比率」5-Firm Concentration Ratio, CR₅)。
[圖1] 展示了這種市場構想。在多個重要的領域中，包括
上游的礦採、重工機械製造;
中游的大中型機械、運輸工具、AI運算核心元件、AI系統基建、機械人;
下游則是大型超市、輕工電器製造、大眾運輸車船等大規模企業;
均透過數以千億計巨額投資進入全自動化人工智能和機械人模式營運，提高市場進入門檻，形成寡頭壟斷。
而倘若上、中游的七個關鍵領域分別由五位寡頭(oligarch)控制，每個寡頭僱用六千位人工智能工程師及支援人員，便足以透過控制電腦系統、自動化機器、機械人，完成所有必要的工作，那麼，他們合共只僱用21萬名人類勞工(6000 x 5 x 7) ，就能導致數以百萬計職位永遠消失。
以機械取代人力的下游大型企業透過自動化升級，減少的工種或許更多，例如公車的自動駕駛減少對職業司機的需求。
為了更具體地解釋，[圖2] 假設一家快餐(美式麵包及飲料)連鎖店集團在北美洲經營一萬五千家門市，並以人工智能和機械人，完成所有倉庫、運送、烹飪、銷售、收款、會計、清潔等工作。
此連鎖店的年度損益表顯示，無論營運成本是多是少，政府從下游直接面對消費者需求的企業利潤中，徵收的人工智能稅款，進而轉化成全民高收入派發額，肯定只可支付無業者生活消費所需金額的一小部分。是故，政府須從上、中游企業增加課稅。
全民高收入是禍，還是福，取決於它產生的是一個惡性循環，還是良性循環。
在資本主義私有財產和私營管理的體制下，全民高收入的本質是維持一個龐大的無業、無收入群體的消費能力，讓他們能購買人工智能和機械人提供的產品和服務;他們的消費轉化為企業的收入、利潤，從而繳納稅款，再次成為全民高收入的政府支票。這種資金運轉的經濟增加值微乎其微。
倒是高薪就業人員(人工智能工程師、CEO) 及企業股東的消費和投資才是經濟增長的主要引擎。可是，這個高薪酬和高股息收入群體(及向他們提供量身訂製產品或個人化服務的依附行商)所產生的經濟增值雖然很多，但由於絕大多數人沒有工作，機械取代人力「獲益群」的消費乘數效應和涓滴(又稱「滴漏」)效應無法惠及被機械取代人力的「無業群」。
當然，總有一些無業者會想辦法在全民高收入之外獲得額外錢財。除了從事那些機械不可取代人力的工作之外，或許以新興的「一人公司」(OPC 或 Solo-preneur)形式經營謀利。但總的來說，機械取代人力獲益群與無業群的經濟差距將會擴大到可怕的程度。
[Note 4]
更糟的是，當全民高收入深度依賴「機械取代人力」企業的稅款，上、中游私企的董事會擁有更大的寡頭影響力迫使政府，以保護國家利益為名，盡力攫取更多礦產資源。
自2021年起，全球勘探和礦業等巨頭、相關的技術供應商、供應鏈物流商、機構投資者等，積極參與在加拿大舉行的「關鍵礦產會議系列」(Critical Minerals Conference Series)年度會議。
在這些寡頭企業的壓力下，美國國務卿今年2月4日主持在華盛頓舉行的首屆「關鍵礦產部長級會議」(Critical Minerals Ministerial)，建立一個「礦產聯盟」。
5月26日，由美國、澳洲、印度、日本組建的「四方關鍵礦產倡議框架」宣布成立。
[Note 5]
而美國政府為礦業謀取利益，採用以強凌弱的伎倆也隨處可見。例子除了格陵蘭外，還有納米比亞與美國的鈾礦的談判受到壓力，須力爭有利的條款(2月9日新聞) 、贊比亞宣佈暫停與美國就一項價值 20億美元的五年期衛生和礦產(銅、鈷、鎳)捆綁的協議進行談(判5月4日新聞)
[Note 6]
為了加強震攝和恐嚇力量，軍備開支必須增加，而犧牲的是民生。美國2027財年聯邦預算要求創紀錄的 1.5 兆美元國防經費(同比增44%)，另削減10%的非國防支出，包括醫療、教育等。
[Note 7]
換句話說，無業群還會面臨公共服務減少、上流機會萎縮……
整個「生存只為消費」的社會將陷入動盪不安的「二元結構」
(Societal Dichotomy ，例見美國主流社會和高度依賴福利的原住民)的惡性循環。
[Note 8]
放眼於地球的另一區，在國營企業主導「機械取代人力」產業的體制下，除了獲取人工智能稅收，中央政府作為上游礦採及重工機械製造等國企的大股東，
沒有私營企業利潤最大化的壓力，
也沒有增加虛耗性消費的擠榨，
更沒有窮兵黷武導致國庫空虛的歪心，
可善用股息收入提昇公眾服務。
政府
可強化教育和培訓，幫助每位公民充分利用人工智能，享受創作的樂趣、成果;
可增加保健支出，導引公民運用人工智能，提升防病強身的能力;
可拓寬文學藝術視野，鼓勵毋須從事重複、苦力、危險工作的全民，進入昇華文明水平的良性循環; 整個社會邁向各盡所能,按需分配的目標。
工業全自動化並非新想像。馬克思(Karl Marx 1818-83)早在1858年完成的《政治經濟學批判大綱》（Grundrisse，德語），已經預料到機械自動化系統最終會出現;還指出人類的角色會變成「看管者和監察者」(Watchman and Regulator);而1867年《資本論》第一卷第十五章《機械與大規模工業》，亦對自動化機械的經濟意義進行了邏輯推敲。
這些文獻不僅是本文的參考，也合該是誠摯以「為人民服務」為榮的負責任政府的政策依據。
[Note 9]
Notes
[Note 1]
Gemini AI
Overview McDonald's sold
approximately 1.9 to 2 billion burger meals in the United States and Canada
combined in 2025. This
estimate is based on the chain's regional market share, where the U.S. and
Canada account for the vast majority of the company's 2.3 to 2.5 billion global
daily burger sales.
Average of
1.9 bn and 2.0 billion is 1.95billion = 1,950,000,000 meals
2025 1205
Payscale:
Average Hourly Rate for McDonald’s Corp Employees
https://www.payscale.com/research/US/Employer=McDonald%27s_Corporation/Hourly_Rate
$13.56/
hour
Avg. Base
Hourly Rate (USD)
2026
0512 Yahoo Finance
“McDonald’s
CEO makes stunning 1,000 times more than workers”
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/mcdonald-ceo-makes-stunning-1-141549039.html
CEO Chris
Kempczinski made $20,574,525 in 2025.
Gemini AI
Overview Together, the USA
and Canada have over 15,200 McDonald's stores.Here is the exact breakdown:
USA:
Approximately 13,851 locations.
Canada:
Approximately 1,489 locations.
Total:
13,851 + 1,489 = 15,340 stores.
[Note 2]
2026 June
https://robotwale.com/news/agility-digit-amazon-expansion
Agility
Robotics has officially announced an expansion of its bipedal humanoid robot,
Digit, across a wider network of Amazon fulfillment centers. The partnership,
which began with pilot programs in 2023, is now scaling to include multiple
facilities across the United States. The deployment is designed to assist with
material handling, inventory auditing, and safety checks, reducing the physical
strain on human workers in high-volume logistics environments.
2026 0601
hkej.com/features/article/灣區創新科技/4036807949/深圳建全機械人服務酒店+世界首家
深圳市文旅產業發展有限公司昨日與深圳市普渡科技有限公司（簡稱普渡機械人）達成戰略合作，雙方將在粵港澳大灣區超級工程深中通道的西人工島，聯合打造全球首個涵蓋賓客接待、行李引導、客房服務、餐飲配送、全域清潔、互動陪伴全流程的機械人服務酒店。
[Note 3]
2024
0524 CNN
“Elon Musk
says AI will take all our jobs”
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/05/23/tech/elon-musk-ai-your-job
2024 0523
Scottsantens.com UBI
Guide
https://www.scottsantens.com/universal-basic-income-or-universal-high-income-ubi-uhi-amount/
"The very positive scenario of AI is actually in a lot
of ways, the description of heaven, in that
really nobody would need to work. I wouldn't
even call it universal basic income. I would say it's probably universal high income." - Elon Musk at AI Safety
Roundtable, September 18, 2023
"We won't have universal basic income. We'll have
universal high income." - Elon Musk at AI Safety Summit, November 2, 2023
"There will be universal high income, not basic, in a
positive AI future." - Elon Musk on X, December 25, 2023
"There will be universal high income (not basic)."
- Elon Musk on X, May 29, 2024
[Note 4]
2025
1027 Medium
“I built a
One-Person AI company with these 7 tools”
https://medium.com/write-a-catalyst/i-built-a-one-person-ai-company-with-these-7-tools-6963eea4a3c6
AI
Solopreneur
https://www.solopreneur.global/
AI
Solopreneur is a complete platform for solopreneurs — covering the entire
journey from inspiration to revenue.
[Note 5]
Critical
Minerals Conferences
https://criticalmineralsconference.com/
Gemini AI Overview
Critical
Minerals Conferences are high-level industry and government gatherings focused
on the mining, processing, and supply chain management of "critical
minerals" (e.g., lithium, cobalt, rare earth elements). These minerals are
essential elements needed for modern technology, electric vehicles, and defense
applications.
While
there are many conferences held globally under this name (such as the AusIMM
Critical Minerals Conference or Critical Minerals North America), they generally
serve the same purpose.
Key topics
discussed at these conferences include:
Supply
Chain Security: Developing localized supply lines to reduce reliance on foreign
monopolies.
Investment
& Financing: Finding money to build new mines, processing plants, and
recycling facilities.
Energy
Transition: Sourcing the metals needed for the world to reach net-zero carbon
emissions.
Geopolitics:
Navigating trade rules and global conflicts.
2026
0303
At the
2026 Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada (PDAC) Convention — the
world’s largest mining conference, hosted in Toronto
2026
0204 US Department of State
“2026 Critical Minerals Ministerial”
https://www.state.gov/releases/office-of-the-spokesperson/2026/02/2026-critical-minerals-ministerial
Today the
United States, together with our partners and allies, has set out to reshape
the global market for critical minerals and rare earths. Secretary of State
Marco Rubio, joined by Vice President JD Vance, Treasury Secretary Scott
Bessent, Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, Energy Secretary Chris Wright, and
U.S. Trade Representative Ambassador Jamieson Greer, hosted representatives of
54 countries and the European Commission, including 43 foreign and other
ministers, at the 2026 Critical Minerals Ministerial.
Critical
minerals and rare earths are essential for our most advanced technologies and
will only become more important as AI, robotics, batteries, and autonomous
devices transform our economies. Today, this market is highly concentrated,
leaving it a tool of political coercion and supply chain disruption, putting
our core interests at risk. We will build new sources of supply, foster secure
and reliable transport and logistics networks, and transform the global market
into one that is secure, diversified, and resilient, end-to-end.
2026 0526
The United
States, Japan, Australia, and India (the “Quad partners”) intend to support the
development of secure critical minerals supply chains, which are essential for
advanced technologies, economic growth, and the resilience of our industrial
bases. Through the Quad Critical Minerals Initiative, Quad partners intend to
work together to use economic policy tools and coordinated investment to
accelerate the development of diversified and fair critical mineral markets and
support the supply of critical minerals that are crucial to our region’s
economic growth and security.
This
framework sets out key areas for cooperation among the Quad partners on
critical minerals supply chains giving due regard for each partner’s domestic
policies and priorities.
[Note 6]
2025
0605 Reuters
“Denmark
won’t bend to Trump’s pressure over Greenland”
https://www.reuters.com/world/denmark-wont-bend-trumps-pressure-over-greenland-prime-minister-says-2025-06-05/
2026
0505 S&P Global
The
Zambian government has rejected a proposed critical minerals partnership with
the US, citing Washington's efforts to link negotiations to a $2-billion health
aid package and the requirement that US companies receive preferential access
to Zambia's mineral resources.
2026
0209 The Namibian
Lawmakers
have urged the government to negotiate stronger, value-driven deals in relation
to Namibia’s natural resources.
[Note 7]
Gemini AI Overview
The White
House proposed a fiscal year 2027 budget request calling for $1.5 trillion in
defense spending—a 44% increase from the previous year—paired with a 10% cut to
nondefense discretionary spending.
2026
0407 Center for American Progress
“Trump’s
Budget request cuts programs that help ordinary Americans and sinks that money
toward war”
On April
3, 2026, President Donald Trump submitted his annual budget request to
Congress, calling for historic cuts to domestic funding and shifting that money
toward historic increases in the military budget. Across steep cuts to education,
housing, health, and other priorities, the budget calls for cutting nondefense
discretionary funding—the
portion of the budget that funds most domestic activities aside from Medicare,
Medicaid, Social Security, and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program
(SNAP)—to its lowest levels as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP)
since at least the Eisenhower administration.
[Note 8]
2024 IGI Global
“What is
Societal Dichotomy”
https://www.igi-global.com/dictionary/the-subaltern-will-speak/123739
It refers
to a division or binary distinction within a society, often characterized by
contrasting elements, categories, or groups. This division can manifest in
various aspects of social life, such as gender roles, economic classes,
cultural identities, or other polarized constructs. Societal dichotomies
contribute to the formation of dualistic perspectives, reinforcing distinctions
between different segments of the population. These divisions may lead to the
establishment of hierarchies and unequal power dynamics, shaping social
interactions, norms, and structures within a given community or society.
Gemini AI Overview
A
dichotomous social structure is a society divided into two distinct, opposing
groups. These two groups usually hold unequal power. They are strictly
separated without a middle ground.
The Core
Concept
The word
dichotomy means a strict split into two parts. In sociology, this model
describes a society cut into two halves.
Key
Traits: Strict Division: Society is split into two categories (e.g., rulers and
ruled, wealthy and poor).
Power
Imbalance: One group usually controls resources and power. The other group
lacks them.
Rigidity:
It is hard to move from one group to the other.
[Note 9]
《政治經濟學批判大綱》
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grundrisse
The Grundrisse der
Kritik der Politischen Ökonomie (Rohentwurf) (German: [ˈɡʁʊntˌʁɪsə]; lit. "Foundations/Outlines of the Critique of Political Economy (Rough
Draft)") is a lengthy, unfinished manuscript written by Karl Marx in
1857–1858. Comprising seven notebooks of economic studies, the work represents
the first major draft of Marx's critique of political economy and is widely
considered the preparatory work for his magnum opus, Das Kapital. The text was
written for self-clarification during the Panic of 1857, and remained
unpublished during his lifetime. A first edition was published in German in
Moscow in 1939 and 1941, but the work only became widely available and
influential in the 1960s and 1970s; a full English translation appeared in 1973.
《資本論：政治經濟學批判》
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Das_Kapital
“Capital: A Critique
of Political Economy” (German: Das Kapital. Kritik der
politischen Ökonomie), also known as Das Kapital (German: [das kapiˈtaːl]),
is a foundational text in Marxist theory by Karl Marx. His magnum opus, the
work is a critical analysis of political economy, meant to reveal the economic
patterns underpinning the capitalist mode of production. Capital is in three
volumes, of which only the first was published in Marx's lifetime (1867); the
others were completed from his notes and published by his collaborator
Friedrich Engels in 1885 and 1894.
