我的《信報》文章(2020年6月17日A16頁) 足本
包括信報稿(限2,000字)未包括的四方面準備:金融、商貿、政治，軍事的簡介)
《為美國11月總統選舉前後出現亂局作準備》
倘若特朗普11月敗選但拒絕下台，民主黨候選人拜登在答問時，表示相信軍方將「押送特朗普離開白宮」(見6月11日新聞) 。
類似的猜測，是美國主流媒體自去年初迄今至少11篇評論的話題。
最近兩篇來自5月的《華盛頓郵報》及2月的《大西洋月刊》。前者估計特朗普聲稱大選被操縱或不公平，拒絕接受投票結果;後者更認為特朗普的右翼極端主義支持者，會進行「致命的暴力行為」。
隨着白宮在5月初召集多個不同軍種的武裝部隊，進駐首都華盛頓特區處理反種族主義抗議者，特朗普在11月拒絕下台的可能性迅速增加。英國《衛報》6月7日引述一些前任美國高官，報導他們深感憂慮「制服團隊」會被拉入國內權力鬥爭中。
[Note
1]
簡言之，11月選舉至少存在三種可能劣況。
一是特朗普順利或經歷爭議後最終被確認成功連任。觀乎過去三年內鬥，大量反對或厭恨特朗普的群眾將聚集各地表達憤怒，極有可能會出現大規模暴亂。原因之一，是美國的政治兩極分化經已非常嚴重(像個啞鈴) 。
特朗普的鐵票支持者，例如主張減少非白人移民、禁止墮胎、擁有槍彈的人，被標籤為「極右」。
特朗普的堅定反對者，例如倡議增加醫療補貼、限用化石燃料、大麻合法化的人，則被視為「極左」。
[Note
2]
雙方已達到水火不容的階段。像烘一個同性戀婚禮蛋糕這樣的小事(2012)，也要吵上聯邦法院判決，使雙方都惱火於心，隨時找藉口洩憤。
[Note
3]
數位知名度高、號召力強、被稱為「激進左翼」的民主黨籍國會女議員，包括寇蒂茲(AOC) 、奧馬爾(Ilhan Omar) ，在2019年被特朗普支持者要求予以驅逐出境。
[Note
4]
激左陣營的暴力主義者(港稱「勇武派」)不甘示弱，在「反法西斯主義運動」(Antifa)此類組織的協助下，於集會遊行示威中多次與警察及右翼支持者發生衝突。5月31日，司法部長巴爾將最近的暴亂歸咎於這些極端主義團體，特朗普更把反法西斯主義運動列為國內恐怖組織。
[Note
5]
溫和左翼在這種嚴重撕裂的對立情況下已無立足之地。《紐約時報》評論版編輯以言論自由、觀點平衡為理由，允許發表一位參議員撰寫支持出兵止暴制亂的文章，受報館同事及激左陣營猛烈批評，被迫即時辭職。
[Note
6]
由此推算，倘若特朗普成功連任，較法國黃背心和香港黑衣人暴亂更劇烈、更持久的警民衝突將難以避免;類似目前的西雅圖無政府狀態「自治區」可能到處湧現，長期有獨立意識的加州(Yes California分離運動)，說不定真的宣布脫離聯邦。
[Note
7]
第二種可能的劣況，是特朗普敗選但拒絕下台。拒絕承認大選結果的可能理據之一，是被特朗普近月狠批的「郵政投票」(mail-in vote) 會導致選舉舞弊、不公。實際上，他總有方法找到藉口指稱選舉無效。面對憲制壓力和街頭抗議，至少有三個切入點可作風險評估。
[Note
8]
第一點是從11月選舉至2021年1月20日的新任總統就職日，特朗普仍然是掌控權力的總統，他怎麼部署是一個大問號。
第二個切入點是特朗普鐵票支持者及極右的動向。6月進行的《華爾街日報》與《全國廣播公司NBC新聞》聯合民意調查顯示，特朗普仍保持高達45％的讚許率(當中包括31％強烈讚許率) ，其支持者不乏擁有重型機槍武器。
[Note
9]
6月1日，在抗議種族歧視期間，印第安納州有21人刻意明顯地手持長槍站在路邊，監視抗議群眾。當地警局說這些人有權這樣做。另有新聞媒體多次報導，極右翼組織 boogaloo bois已為進行第二次內戰做好準備。
[Note
10]
第三點是關於「制服團隊」(港稱紀律部隊)的態度。早在2016年大選時，已有人建議廢除阻礙拉丁美洲難民入境的「移民局」(ICE, 隸屬美國國土安全部) 。在寇蒂茲的領導下, 「廢止移民局」自2018年起，漸成有聲有色、團結力強的群眾運動(Abolish ICE Movement)。
[Note
11]
再加上現時如火如荼的「解散警局」(Disband the Police)、「削警經費」(Defund the Police) 、「更改以內戰時期邦聯軍事領袖命名的軍事基地名稱」等要求，制服團隊中或多或少有些人甚為反感。
[Note
12]
美國主流媒體通常一面倒報導「政治正確」的說法。但實際上，支持特朗普的媒體(包括強烈反擊針對警力運動的Breitbart, 稱美國正進行批鬥歷史文化內戰的The Federalist) ，對許多基層士兵、警員有廣而深的影響。而對於毫無保留地支持他們的特朗普，右傾的制服團隊成員，尤其是現役士兵、退伍年青軍人、個人利益直接受損的警隊，一呼百應地支持特朗普，並非不可思議。
[Note
13]
第三種可能的劣況，是大選因為全國社會處於極度混亂中而根本無法進行。如果在大選前，民意調查顯示在特朗普和拜登之間，一位候選人大幅落後於對手，那麼這種情況出現的機會非常高，因為其忠實且激進的支持者會故意不讓選舉順利進行。
頗具影響力的Vox新聞評論網站，於6月3日發表一篇更新文章(原刊於3月21日) ，指出大規模騷亂，可促成特朗普運用總統權力取消全民大選獲得合理化。假如大選無法進行，憲制下解決方案之一，是讓現任州議員組成「選舉團」(electoral college) ，議員以選舉人身份，直接投票選出新總統。
[Note
14]
以現在的嚴重兩極化情況看，儘管此舉在一定程度上合憲，但選舉團表決結果無法服眾，亂上加亂將不可避免。
中央人民政府及香港特區政府，必須為美國發生的此類混亂做好至少四方面準備:金融、商貿、政治，軍事
金融:
除了股票、債券、貨幣市場可能出現的動蕩之外，北京應該促進人民幣及
適合於應用數位貨幣的區塊鏈 (Blockchain) 技術
zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/区块链
商貿、政治:
加強與歐亞區國家的合作
詳見拙文《中俄「對接一帶一盟」驟現三項有利條件》
刊2019年 4月29日《信報》A23頁
足本可在我的blog中閱讀
詳見拙文《美國裂於蛋糕爭議 歐亞聯於列車文化》
刊2018年7月30日《信報》A17頁
詳見拙文《匈國向歐盟說「己所不欲勿施於人」對華意義》
刊2018年7月14日《信報》A15頁
詳見拙文《東歐民族思潮有助中國和平崛起取得突破》
刊2018年6月30日《信報》A19頁
軍事:
不遲於2022年統一台灣島!!!
詳見拙文《管治台灣省的兩個方案》
刊2018年9月22日《信報》A23頁
詳見拙文《2022年統一台灣的兩個考慮》
刊2018年10月10日《信報》A19頁
最理想的策略是做到「進可攻，退可守」。
由於內地媒體已就此事增加相關報導，看來北京已經有所準備;但香港公共部門、工商機構、政治團體似乎尚未警覺。
Notes for Reference
[Note
1]
CBS
News 2020 June 11
Joe Biden said he believes President Trump will "try
to steal" the election in November and that he is "absolutely
convinced" the military will escort Mr. Trump out of the White House if
he loses the election and doesn't leave.
CNN,
“What if Trump refuses to accept defeat in 2020?”, Feb 23, 2019.
Washington
Post 2020 May 14
We don’t know whether Trump will be reelected. But, as we
head toward November, you have to ask yourself: If he loses, would it be more
surprising if Trump graciously accepts defeat and congratulates his
opponent or if he claimed to be the victim of a rigged
election and a “deep state” plot?
The
Atlantic 2020 Feb
That a president would defy the results of an election has long
been unthinkable; it is now, if not an actual possibility, at the very least
something Trump’s supporters joke about.
One of Trump’s former confidants, Michael Cohen, has suggested
that Trump won’t leave. In
his congressional testimony before heading to prison, Trump’s former attorney
said, “Given my experience working for Mr. Trump, I fear that if he loses the
election in 2020, there
will never be a peaceful transition of power.”
Although Trump’s remaining in office seems unlikely, a more
frightening—and plausible—scenario would be if his defeat inspired extremist
supporters to engage in violence. One could imagine a world in which Trump is
defeated in the 2020 election, and he immediately begins tweeting that the
election was rigged. Or consider the possibility, albeit remote, that a
second-term Trump is removed from office through impeachment, and rails about
his ouster as a coup. His message would be amplified by right-wing media. If
his grievances hit home with even a few people inclined toward violence, deadly acts of violence, or
even terrorist attacks against the new administration, could result.
The
Guardian 2020 June 07.
A former chairman of joint chiefs of staff, Adm Mike
Mullen, wrote recently that although he remains “confident in the
professionalism of our men and women in uniform”, he is “deeply worried” they
“will be co-opted for political purposes”.
[Note
2]
New
York Intelligencer, “There are 7 Left Wing Ideas (almost) all Americans can get
behind”, 2019 Aug 30.
[Note
3]
Wiki,
Gay Couple Wedding Cake case 2012-8
[Note
4]
New
York Intelligencer, “Trump goads crowd into urging deportation of Congressional
Democrat”, 2019 July 17.
[Note
5]
Washington
Post 2020 June 5
“We have evidence that antifa and other similar extremist
groups, as well as actors of a variety of different political persuasions, have
been involved in instigating and participating in the violent activity,” Barr
said at one point. “Antifa” is a blanket term for a loose-knit group of
often-militant activists targeting racism and fascism.
[Note
6]
NBC
New 2020 June 8
The New York Times announced Sunday
that Editorial Page Editor James Bennet
has resigned after his department published a widely criticized
opinion article written by Sen. Tom Cotton, R-Ark.
Cotton's article, published Wednesday
and titled "Send in the
Troops," incited a backlash not just from readers but also
from Times journalists. Many from within the newsroom publicly stated that the article
put the lives of black journalists employed at the company in
danger.
[Note
7]
NPR
2020 June 12
In Seattle, hundreds of activists are
occupying in an area they are calling an autonomous zone. It's part of the
nationwide protests against police brutality towards African Americans. The
zone surrounds a police precinct vacated days ago. Casey Martin of member
station KUOW reports that a few city blocks symbolize patriotic protest for
some and lawlessness for others.
CASEY MARTIN, BYLINE: This time last
week, Seattle's Capitol Hill neighborhood was filled with tear gas and
exploding flash-bang grenades. After days of standoffs with protesters, Seattle police were
pulled out of the East Precinct building. In their absence, people have claimed
a six-block area they're calling the Capitol Hill Autonomous Zone, or CHAZ.
Wiki,
Yes California
Yes California is
a Californian political action
committee that promotes the Independence
of the state of California from the United States.[1][2]
[Note
8]
CNN 2020 May 26
On Tuesday morning, Donald Trump tweeted this:
"There is NO WAY (ZERO!) that Mail-In Ballots will be
anything less than substantially fraudulent. Mail boxes will be robbed, ballots
will be forged & even illegally printed out & fraudulently signed. The
Governor of California is sending Ballots to millions of people, anyone living
in the state, no matter who they are or how they got there, will get one. That
will be followed up with professionals telling all of these people, many of
whom have never even thought of voting before, how, and for whom, to vote. This
will be a Rigged Election. No way!"
That follows hard on a
Memorial Day weekend spent attacking plans by states to increase their
vote-by-mail efforts as a way to help mitigate a possible second surge of the
coronavirus in the fall.
[Note
9]
Yahoo
News 2020 June 8
The President's approval rating sits at 45% — down one percent
from April.
>>>
[Note
10]
Yahoo
News 2020 June 5 quoting news source
from TIME
A video that circulated on social media
shows 21 people standing along a bike trail near downtown Crown Point, Indiana,
watching protesters march past them Monday during a peaceful protest against
police brutality and racism. Eight of the bystanders held firearms, an act
Crown Point Police Chief Pete Land said is protected under state law.
Yahoo
News 2020 June 5
Two men charged with conspiring to incite
violence and civil unrest at protests over the killing of George Floyd
previously sought to do the same thing at protests against coronavirus
lockdowns, in both instances seeking to promote their extremist agenda, federal
prosecutors say.
According to a criminal complaint filed
Wednesday in the U.S. District Court in Nevada, all three, who are white and
have U.S. military experience, “self-identified as part of the ‘boogaloo’
movement,” a disparate yet growing collection of extremists, including far-right militias, radical
gun rights activists, white supremacists and neo-Nazis. As noted in the
criminal complaint, “‘Boogaloo’ is a term used by extremists to signify a
coming civil war and/or fall of civilization.”
Wiki,
Boogaloo Movement
The boogaloo movement, adherents to
which are often referred to as boogaloo boys or boogaloo
bois, is a loosely organized American far-right extremist movement.[3][4][5] Participants generally identify
as a libertarian citizen-militia, and say they are preparing for a
second American Civil War, which they call the "boogaloo
[Note
11]
Wiki,
Abolish ICE Movement
Abolish ICE is
a political movement that proposes abolition of the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).[1] The movement gained traction in
June 2018, due to controversy of the Trump administration family separation policy
[Note
12]
The
Guardian 2020 Jun 9
Donald Trump is “appalled” by calls to “defund the police”. The Senate majority
leader, Mitch McConnell, called the suggestion “outlandish”. And the House
minority leader, Kevin McCarthy, promised police officers: “Republicans
will never turn our backs on you”, unveiling a new line of attack ahead of the
November elections.
Calls to reform, defund and abolish the police have been
embraced by protesters and activists amid a national upheaval in response to
the police killings of George Floyd in Minneapolis and Breonna Taylor in Louisville, both of
whom were African American. But Trump, his re-election campaign and his
Republican allies are seizing on the movement in an effort to weaponize the
rallying cry against Democrats and the party’s nominee, Joe
Biden.
“The president is appalled by the ‘defund the police’
movement,” the White House press secretary, Kayleigh McEnany, said on Monday.
She compared it to past calls to abolish US Immigration and Customs Enforcement
(Ice) ahead of the 2018 congressional midterms, which resulted in Democrats
regaining control of the House.
Military
Times 2020 June 11
Hours after the president announced he would block all efforts to
remove the names of Confederate leaders from prominent U.S. military bases, lawmakers in the
House and Senate both pushed to force defense leaders to make the changes
anyway, calling it an issue of respect and inclusivity.
[Note
13]
Breitbart 2020 June 13
Rioters flocked to Atlanta streets on Saturday
in protest, blocking highways and setting fire to the Wendy’s…
The
Federalist 2020 June 12
America is in the midst of a new cultural civil war that for years has been brewing
under the surface as left-wing academics breed aggressively woke children now
permeating throughout the nation’s mainstream institutions.
[Note
14]
Vox,
“Can Trump cancel the November election?”
2020 June 3 updated
Monday evening, law enforcement officers gassed and used rubber bullets to clear
peaceful protesters from an area near the White House — President Trump soon
emerged from the White House so that he could have a photo op at a nearby
church. Subsequent reporting revealed that Attorney General Bill Barr personally gave the order for
law enforcement “to clear the streets around Lafayette Square just before
President Trump spoke Monday.”
It’s a frightening moment for democracy. And it raises harrowing
questions about just how far Trump and his inner circle are willing to go in
order to hold on to power.
